UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang continues on the early prelims with a fight between Rafael dos Anjos and Alexander Hernandez in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC 332 odds series for our dos Anjos-Hernandez prediction and pick.
Rafael dos Anjos (32-17) enters UFC 332 riding three consecutive losses. His latest appearance ended with a first-round knee-injury TKO against Geoff Neal in October 2024, following a unanimous-decision defeat to Mateusz Gamrot, leaving significant questions about his readiness as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alexander Hernandez.
Alexander Hernandez (18-9) enters UFC 332 after losing a unanimous decision to Rafa Garcia in April, snapping his four-fight winning streak. Previously, he stopped Diego Ferreira with second-round punches in September 2025, showcasing his power but leaving consistency questions as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rafael dos Anjos.
UFC 332 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 332 Odds: Rafael dos Anjos-Alexander Hernandez Odds
Rafael dos Anjos: +225
Alexander Hernandez: -278
Over 2.5 Rounds: -140
Under 2.5 Rounds: +110
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Rafael dos Anjos Will Win
Rafael dos Anjos can beat Alexander Hernandez by making this a technical, grinding contest rather than a battle of explosive exchanges. The former lightweight champion has the experience to recognize dangerous moments, manage distance, and pursue a disciplined winning strategy.
His strongest statistical argument is grappling, averaging 1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes compared with Hernandez’s 1.05, alongside a higher submission average. Those career numbers suggest a viable route through clinch pressure, takedown attempts, and positional control, although they cannot guarantee success.
Dos Anjos should advance behind measured combinations, then change levels when Hernandez plants his feet to answer with power shots. Making Hernandez defend multiple threats could disrupt his rhythm and prevent him from consistently exploiting the reach advantage he possesses.
Defensively, dos Anjos has historically absorbed fewer significant strikes per minute, providing another reason to favor controlled exchanges over reckless aggression. However, his lengthy absence remains a serious concern, so predicting victory requires believing he can execute that approach after returning.
Rather than chasing a dramatic finish, the veteran should prioritize reliable round-winning work that makes Hernandez increasingly uncomfortable throughout Saturday’s matchup.
Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win
Article Continues BelowAlexander Hernandez should beat Rafael dos Anjos because his greater recent activity offers an advantage against a veteran returning from injury. Dos Anjos has not competed since October 2024, when a knee injury ended his fight against Geoff Neal prematurely.
That absence raises questions about timing, movement, and the ability to respond when Hernandez increases the tempo and attacks in combinations. Hernandez should test those areas with controlled pressure, forcing dos Anjos to defend repeatedly without gifting him easy clinch entries.
Hernandez’s recent knockouts of Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper demonstrate the finishing threat he carries when he finds clean striking opportunities. Although Rafa Garcia snapped his four-fight winning streak in April, that defeat does not erase the offensive improvements preceding it.
The key is avoiding a prolonged wrestling battle, where dos Anjos could use experience and positional control to neutralize Hernandez’s offense. Maintaining balance after combinations, circling away from the fence, and making the veteran reset should help Hernandez preserve his preferred range.
A stoppage is possible, but banking rounds through disciplined striking offers a more reliable approach than recklessly chasing a knockout.
Final Rafael dos Anjos-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick
Alexander Hernandez is my pick to beat Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 332, most likely by decision. Dos Anjos is a former champion, but he is 41, nearly two years removed from a knee injury, and facing a faster, more explosive opponent.
Dos Anjos can make this ugly by pressuring forward, grabbing the clinch, and dragging Hernandez into grappling exchanges. His submission history and durability mean he is dangerous until the final bell.
Hernandez, however, has the athleticism to scramble back to his feet and keep the fight in space. Dos Anjos has lost three straight, and his last win was a 2022 submission of Bryan Barberena.
The market agrees, with Hernandez as the steady favorite with dos Anjos as the underdog. Hernandez lost to Rafa Garcia in April, so his consistency is a fair concern.
Still, I expect his speed and power to take over. My pick: Hernandez by unanimous decision.
Final Rafael dos Anjos-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Alexander Hernandez (-278), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-140)