Thursday Night Football features a potential high-scoring matchup when the New England Patriots (4-2) visit the Chicago Bears (4-2) at Soldier Field. The Patriots are on a three-game winning streak over the Bills (29-26), Raiders (47-17), and Jets (26-19). The Bears went 2-1 without Caleb Williams and got him back in a 31-23 win in Atlanta on Sunday Night Football.
Chicago scored on its first drive of the game and never looked back. The Bears jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead over Atlanta and finished the game with 386 yards to the Falcons’ 257. Both teams averaged at least 5.0 yards per play and Atlanta gave up on the run game as they ran a NFL season-low 12 times against Chicago. Establishing the lead then having a positive game script made life easy for Caleb Williams in his return. Williams recorded a career-high 83.3 completion percentage on 30-of-36 for 305 yards and a touchdown.
Both quarterbacks will see a lot of man coverage on Thursday night. New England ranks third in man coverage (31.2%) and Williams ranks top 10 across the board against man. On the other side, Chicago’s defense runs man coverage 31.9%, ranking second-highest and Drake Maye ranks 33rd or worse in passer rating, completion percentage, and more against man. Oddsmakers set Chicago as a 3-point home favorite with a high game total of 50.5.
New England did a lot of damage on third down against the Jets. Drake Maye and the Pats offense converted 8-of-15 third downs and Maye tossed two of his three touchdowns on third and goal. New England continued the Jets first half woes for the two minute drill as Maye led a 47-yard drive on 12 plays to go up 17-3 at the half. New England ran 148 yards on 46 carries and averaged for 4.1 yards per carry. We cane expect the Pats to establish a ground game against a Bears defense that is bottom five in yards before contact on run plays. We should also expect a bigger day from A.J. Brown who had three drops and another miscue that left his debut a disappointment. Brown finished with three receptions for 27 yards on 10 targets. If he gets 10 targets against Chicago, expect at least triple the yardage.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Patriots at Bears
· Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
· Time: 8:15 PM ET
· Site: Soldier Field
· City: Chicago, IL
· TV/Streaming: Prime Video
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Latest Game Odds for Patriots at Bears
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Moneyline: Chicago Bears (-148), New England Patriots (+124)
· Spread: Bears -3 (-102)
· Total: 50.5
The spread opened Chicago -1.5 with a game total of 47.5, so money has come in on Chicago and the Over. Most sports books are indicating this line likely closes at -2.5, so the Patriots +3 might not be around much longer.
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Expert picks & predictions for Patriots at Bears
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Patriots at Bears betting trends and stats
- Chicago is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 to the Under
- New England is 3-2-1 ATS and 3-3 to the Over
- Chicago is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 to the Under as the home team
- New England is 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Under on the road
- The Bears are 9-6 ATS and on the ML following a win since the start of 2025
- The Bears are 9-5-1 to the Under since the start of 2025
- The Patriots are 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Over following a win this season
- The Patriots are 2-1 to the Over following a win this season
- New England is 6-1 versus Chicago dating back to 2002
- New England is 4-0 in the last four trips to Chicago
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Quarterback matchup for Patriots at Bears
· Chicago: Caleb Williams – Williams posted a career-high 83.3 completion percentage (30/36) in the 31-23 win over Atlanta and tossed 305 yards and one touchdown and zero turnovers. Williams came back firing on all cylinders and the run game helped him out with 98 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Chicago got into such a positive game script, Atlanta’s defense had to play the run first, but be ready for Williams, which they weren’t. The Bears led 21-7 at the half and 28-7 in the third quarter giving Williams and Ben Johnson the ability to run what they want in the second half. Life shouldn’t be so easy for Williams on a short week in his second start after a hamstring injury, although, Williams has excelled against man coverage and the Patriots run the third-most man (31.7%). Williams ranks second in completion percentage against man (72.7%), second in catchable pass rate (81.8%), and third in passer rating versus man coverage (123.3).
· New England: Drake Maye – Over the last two games, Drake Maye has tossed seven touchdowns to zero interceptions and a rushing score. New England has scored 45 on the Raiders and 26 against the Jets. The Patriots should have scored more points, but A.J. Brown had a case of the drops. Maye has at least 24 rushing yards in three-straight games and 235-plus yards in that span. Maye has had the second-longest time to throw this season (2.98 seconds) and ranks third in completion percentage against zone coverage (74.5%). Chicago runs the fourth-fewest zone coverage schemes at 64.8% and the second-most man coverage (31.9%). Against man coverage, Maye has the 26th-ranked passer rating (77.9), 33rd in completion percentage (46%), and 35th in catchable rate versus man (52%). The Patriots defense is also right there with the Bears in percentages for zone and man, so Maye sees plenty of man in practice, but has been very underwhelming versus man coverage.
Patriots at Bears Injury Update
- Patriots CB Karon Prunty (hamstring) is questionable
- Patriots CB Channing Canada (hamstring) is questionable
- Patriots CB Carlton Davis III (neck) is
- Patriots WR A.J. Brown (ankle) is questionable
- Patriots WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on IR
- Patriots OT Morgan Moses (ankle) is questionable
- Patriots C Ben Brown (knee) is questionable
- Patriots G Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) is questionable
- Chicago S Anthony Johnson Jr. (undisclosed) is on IR
- Chicago RB Kyle Monangai (toe) is questionable
- Chicago LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is questionable
- Chicago G Jonah Jackson (hip) is questionable
- Chicago LB Jack Sanborn (concussion) is questionable
- Chicago DE Dayo Odenyingbo (quads) is on IR
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