Ohio State comes in riding a five-game winning streak and looks to keep it rolling against USC on Saturday. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Ohio State-USC prediction and pick.
Ohio State comes into the game at 6-1 on the year. They opened up with a 56-3 win over Ball State before visiting Texas. Ohio State had a 23-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but Texas would make the comeback, winning 24-23. Texas would dominate the next four games, winning by 17 or more in each of them, including a win over Iowa on the road. Last time out, they faced Indiana on the road. Indiana scored in the fourth quarter to make it a four-point game. Indiana nearly scored again, but Nick Marsh was out of bounds when he caught the ball in the end zone, as Ohio State won 19-15. Still, while they got the win on the field, Ohio State took a major loss on the injury front. Julian Sayin was injured in the game, and Ohio State will have a new quarterback under center in this one. They are coming off a bye, which has given the Buckeyes a chance to figure out the best solution moving forward.
Meanwhile, USC is 6-2 on the year. They opened up with a 4-0 record, but the wins were over San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana, and Rutgers. They would then fall to Oregon, 41-27. The Trojans rebound, beating Washington and Penn State. Last time out, they visited Wisconsin. USC struggled heavily in the game. Jayden Maiava threw two interceptions in the game, while having just one touchdown. Meanwhile, USC had negative 17 yards rushing. Wisconsin did not have a huge game, but still won 24-7. This second loss of the year for Lincoln Riley put him firmly on the hot seat.
This will be the 25th meeting between Ohio State and USC. The Trojans have won 13 times, while Ohio State has ten wins, and there has been one tie. Ohio State took the win last time they faced each other. That was in the 2017 Cotton Bowl when Ohio State was 24-7. The last time the two faced each other in the regular season was in 2009, when USC won 18-15 in Columbus.
Ohio State vs. USC Odds
Ohio State: -6.5 (-115)
USC: +6.5 (-105)
Over: 51.5 (-112)
Under: 51.5 (-108)
Watch Ohio State-USC LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Ohio State vs. USC Key Injuries
Ohio State- S Leroy Roker III (Out), QB Julian Sayin (Out), S Brenten “Inky” Jones (Out), RB Ja'Kobi Jackson (Out), WR Amari Valerio-Hudson (Out), OL Jaxon Powell (Out), TE Maxence LeBlanc (Out), WR Brandon Inniss (Questionable), WR Brock Boyd (Questionable), CB Jay Timmons (Questionable), LB Eli Lee (Questionable), CB Amar'e Miller (Questionable)
USC- WR Terrell Anderson (Out), WR Corey Simms (Out), S Kendarius Reddick (Out), LB Taylor “Taybo” Johnson (Out), LB Roman Marchetti (Out), OL Kilian O'Connor (Out), OL Hayden Treter (Out), DT Jahkeem Stewart (Questionable), TE Mark Bowman (Questionable), RB Shahn Alston (Questionable), DR Jamaal Jarrett (Questionable)
Ohio State vs. USC Betting Trends
– The Buckeyes are 5-2 against the spread this year, and 3-0 on the road.
– Ohio State has covered both times when not favored by double digits.
– The over is 4-3 for Ohio State this year, but is 0-3 on the road this year.
– USC is just 2-6 against the spread this year.
– The Trojans are just 1-4 against the spread at home, while also 0-1 as an underdog.
– The under has hit in four of eight games for the Trojans this year, and three of five at home
Article Continues BelowKeys to Ohio State vs. USC matchup
Ohio State has been great on offense this year, sitting sixth in the nation in points per game and eighth in yards per game. Still, they were led by the fifth-best passing offense in the nation. Julian Sayin will be out for the foreseeable future, and that will put a new quarterback under center. Luke Fahey took over for Sayin when he was injured, but Tavien St. Clair could get the start. With a young quarterback getting their first start, Ohio State needs to establish the running game early. That starts with Bo Jackson. Jackson has run the ball 107 times for 516 yards and four scores this year. Meanwhile, Ja'Kobi Jackson has run 59 times for 354 yards and six scores. If the run game can be established, it will help the comfort of their new quarterback.
On defense, they have to get pressure on Jayden Maiava without blitzing. USC uses quick passes to the perimeter, including screens and sweeps in the run game. Blitzing could pull players out of position, which could lead to big plays for the USC offense. Getting pressure on Maiava will be the job of Kenyatta Jackson Jr. He leads the team with three sacks this year and one forced fumble. Pass rush has been a weakness for Ohio State this year, sitting 114th in the nation in sack rate, but they must be better this week.
For USC, it all starts with a solid game from Maiava. He has completed 183 of 274 passes for 2,302 yards and 19 touchdowns. He has also been great at spreading the ball around this year. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt has brought in 32 receptions for 443 yards and four scores. Meanwhile, Trent Mosley has 27 receptions for 411 yards and five scores. Finally, Zacharyus Williams has 20 receptions for 329 yards and a touchdown. Even if the passing game is going well, they cannot abandon the run. King Miller needs to get his touches as well. This year he has run for 602 yards and four scores.
On defense, USC needs to force obvious passing situations. That will start with slowing down both Bo and Ja'Kobi Jackson on early downs. The defense can then go off on whoever is under center for Ohio State. The Trojans are 41st in sack rate this year. Kennedy Urlacher is going to be a major aspect of the game for USC. He will be tasked with slowing down the run game, getting pressure on the quarterback, and helping cover Jeremiah Smith. He has been solid this year from his safety position, with three sacks, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble.
Ohio State vs. USC Prediction and Pick
Ohio State will need to rely on their defense in this game. With a new quarterback, expect them to run the ball plenty and keep it low-scoring. Meanwhile, the defensive line for the Buckeyes has been good this year. At the same time, the USC offensive line has struggled. Further, USC is going to struggle to get a short field. They are 116th in the nation in takeaways this year, and while Ohio State has turned the ball over more often than normal, they are still holding onto the ball well. Ohio State gets an easy win in this one, while it stays lower-scoring.
Final Ohio State vs. USC Prediction and Pick: Ohio State -6.5 (-115) and Under 51.5 (-108)