In the 2007-08 NBA season, all eight Western Conference teams won at least 50 games. That will not be the case again this season. There is a pretty big falloff after the top six West teams (Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Rockets and the Lakers), with the middle class teams looking like the Trail Blazers and Jazz.
From there, the lower-tier teams are going to face added struggles of a more competitive nightly schedule, thanks to lottery reform removing the incentive to lose for a third of the league. Factor in how tough the East is (everyone has to play those teams twice), and wins are hard to come by for everyone. It makes picking the over/under win totals an especially difficult exercise, as it is every year.
Still, we'll give it our best with the information we have available to us. Earlier this week, we put out our Eastern Conference over-under predictions. Now let's get to the West.
Dallas Mavericks
- 2025-26 record: 26-56
- 2026-27 win total: 34.5
- Prediction: Under
This is a stay-away line because the Mavericks' season could go so many different ways. They could trade Kyrie Irving and bottom out, relatively speaking, or they could keep Irving, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, get Dereck Lively II back in a timely manner, and with Cooper Flagg profiling as a potential All-NBA player and a bunch of wings and size all over the floor, win north of 40 games pretty easily.
Deep down, I just don't think Irving makes sense on the team's timeline and they'll ultimately find a way to trade him. And if he goes, why not Washington, Gafford and/or Naji Marshall? I'll go under, but it'll be close.
Denver Nuggets
- 2025-26 record: 54-28
- 2026-27 win total: 49.5
- Prediction: Over
Another tight one. This largely comes down to Aaron Gordon's availability. When he plays, they still kill people. When he's out, much different story.
Given that Gordon is healthy right now and has looked good in preseason, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and err on the side of the Nuggets' pretty much unmatched continuity with its starting lineup. Cameron Johnson caught a lot of flak last year, but look at the numbers. He shot 43% from 3 and was lights out after a terrible start, and he's going to be more comfortable in year two. DeMar DeRozan doesn't seem like a great fit, but he could theoretically help keep the non-Nikola Jokić minutes above water.
Bottom line, there's still a lot of talent here and one of the best starting fives in the game, and with that at his disposal, I just can't see Jokić not winning 50 games.
Golden State Warriors
- 2025-26 record: 37-45
- 2026-27 win total: 37.5
- Prediction: Under
This pains me to say as a Northern California native, but Golden State is going under this number. It's always going to be tempting to talk yourself into the idealized version of a Stephen Curry team. Yaxel Lendeborg is going to be awesome! Brandon Williams is going to be a bench spark plug! Gui Santos is slept on! Al Horford can still play! So can Draymond Green! All we gotta do is keep Curry healthy and stay relevant until Jimmy Butler gets back and take off from there!
Sorry, folks. It ain't happening. The far more realistic scenario is Curry, who only played in 43 games last year and is fighting an old-man knee that seems like it's going to bug him off and on for the rest of his career, misses a lot of time again as the decision comes down to pushing a 38-year-old to his breaking point to maybe sneak into the play-in tourney or erring on the side of keeping his fresh for next year, when they have substantial cap space and are planning (as they always are!) to make a big addition.
Who knows when or if Kristaps Porzingis will even be able to play. Banking on Butler coming back after a torn ACL and a year off to just be, well, Jimmy Butler in February is a fairy tale. Too many things would have to go perfectly for this to even be a .500 team, and I mean perfectly. It's just not likely. The West is too good, too deep, and the Warriors, frankly, are neither. Take the under.
Houston Rockets
- 2025-26 record: 52-30
- 2026-27 win total: 48.5
- Prediction: Over
I don't understand this number. Yeah, the Rockets went in the tank at points last year and looked bad in the playoffs, but they won 52 games with no point guard and Steven Adams, a major part of their major offensive rebounding advantage, out for the entire second half of their schedule. Now the Rockets get Adams and their point guard, Fred VanVleet, back. This is a better team than the one that finished last season with the sixth-best net rating in the league.
If you're waiting on the Kevin Durant decline, get comfortable. The guy averaged 26 points per game last season on damn-near 52/41/87 shooting splits with almost zero structural offensive assistance. To that point, Houston needs to improve its possession quality and find some semblance of dependable late-game offense other than giving the ball to Durant and spectating. VanVleet should help immensely with that aspect.
Also, don't get too caught up in the lottery-reform narrative as it pertains particularly to the Rockets, who were not a team feasting on tankers last season. Among the top-10 Western Conference teams, only the Clippers lost more games to below-.500 opponents. During an extended December-January stretch, the Rockets lost games to the Jazz, Pelicans, and the Mavericks, Kings and Blazers twice each. They were also 1-7 in overtime games. Chances are, at least half those games swing their way this season.
There's a strong case to be made that 52 wins was about the lowest possible outcome for Houston last season. Based on their point differential, Cleaning The Glass pegged them as an expected 56-win team. And again, they are better this season. This 48.5 number is a comfortable over for me.
Los Angeles Clippers
- 2025-26 record: 42-40
- 2026-27 win total: 28.5
- Prediction: Under
There are some names on this Clippers team, notably Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram. But Ingram has a partially torn Achilles, and there's no telling when he'll be ready to go.
Max Strus is also hurt to start the year, and the most important factor in this line is that the Clippers almost have to trade some guys to recoup some of the future draft picks they forfeited to the Kawhi Leonard cap-circumvention cause (Rui Hachimura, Kris Dunn, and Derrick Jones Jr. are prime candidates).
Ultimately, Ty Lue's coaching might be enough to keep the Clippers out of the bottom-three relegation zone, but they'll still go under this number as they devote most of the season's focus to developing Keaton Wagler.
Los Angeles Lakers
- 2025-26 record: 53-29
- 2026-27 win total: 46.5
- Prediction: Over
The Lakers were looking like a shadow contender until Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves got hurt last year. Yes, they lose maybe the best player ever, but the numbers with Dončić and Reaves on the court without LeBron James still paint a rosy picture.
With those two on the court without James, the Lakers outscored opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with an 80th percentile offense and defense last season. Rob Pelinka might have paid a bit too much for Walker Kessler, but that's a major addition. If he gets hurt for a significant stretch, the Lakers' defense is shot, but that's the only thing that gives me even brief pause on this number. Assuming Kessler plays in 60-65 games, he will be a possession monster for them on the offensive glass and give Dončić a functional roll partner.
This team is just built to win regular-season games. The postseason is a different story when teams start looking to hunt Dončić and Reaves, but night in and night out, having Dončić and Reaves is such guaranteed high-level offense, it's hard to see the Lakers going under 50 wins, let alone falling down to 46, on the strength of that duo alone with Kessler in the middle.
Now add in some sneaky depth. There are a lot of guys who can catch and shoot 3 off Dončić's gravity. The Lakers can play a pretty mean five-out lineup with Sandro Mamukelashvili at center. Quentin Grimes is a player, and the addition of Collin Sexton maintains creative capacity when Dončić sits and/or misses time. To me, 55-57 wins is in play for the Lakers. Have you forgotten how great Dončić is? This is a wildly low number.
Memphis Grizzlies
- 2025-26 record: 25-57
- 2026-27 win total: 29.5
- Prediction: Over
I think rookie Cameron Boozer is ready to average 20 and 10 out of the gate. Playing alongside Zach Edey, who was a top-10 offensive board guy as a rookie and is a problem with his size inside (the Grizzlies killed teams in his minutes last year, albeit in almost an irrelevantly small sample as he only played 11 games), he should be able to overpower matchups against smaller defenders.
Those two guys and Isaiah Stewart are the frontline foundation of a team that is going to play extremely hard every night. Ty Jerome, who played in just 15 games last year, is very good and will create pick-and-roll offense. Quinten Post gives them size and stretch shooting behind Edey. Cedric Coward, who can really defend and attack the basket with force and has a sweet shooting stroke, is a guy to watch for a big sophomore leap after a strong rookie season. I love Jaylen Wells (in part because I went to the same college as him!). Jerami Grant averaged just under 20 points and shot 39% from 3 on volume last year.
I just think Jerome and Edey basically not playing last year and the Grizzlies still winning 25 games (with an incentive to tank) is the profile of a team that can win five more games this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2025-26 record: 49-33
- 2026-27 win total: 48.5
- Prediction: Over
Shooters convert shots at one of the highest rates in the league off LaMelo Ball passes. He's an extraordinarily gifted passer who hits his in rhythm and on target. Anthony Edwards shot 48% on catch-and-shoot 3s last season. This has the makings of a truly dynamic offensive duo, with Ball relieving some of Edwards' on-ball stress and juice in an offense that, in general, could get a little bogged down running through Julius Randle in the past.
You can have your concerns about Ball staying healthy or surviving defensively in a playoff series, but there is a lot of defensive infrastructure in Minnesota with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels (one of the better true two-way players in the league), and this team is going to play with a lot of energy and swagger. Jonathan Kuminga should really benefit from Ball's hit-ahead passing and general pace pushing. Naz Reid will be missed, and the frontcourt depth could be a pain point. Give me the over.
New Orleans Pelicans
- 2025-26 record: 26-56
- 2026-27 win total: 28.5
- Prediction: Under
Zion Williamson is a round peg in a square hole. He doesn't fit next to Derik Queen because neither can shoot nor defend. Williamson needs the ball to really make an impact, but you can't justify not playing through Queen and Jeremiah Fears.
There are teams that are better than the sum of their parts and teams that are worse than the sum of their parts, and the Pelicans are the latter. They have good players. Herbert Jones. Trey Murphy III. Dejounte Murray. All these guys can play and therefore should be traded because this team, as constructed, is going nowhere and has too many overlapping skill sets with the same flaws.
The only question with this team is whether the front office will do the right thing and make some of these trades (notably Murphy III) at a reasonable price, rather than holding out for the Danny Ainge train-heist package. Either way, this team is going under.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 2025-26 record: 64-18
- 2026-27 win total: 62.5
- Prediction: Under
I'm telling you right now, do not mess with this bet. The Thunder could very easily go over this number. They won 64 last year and Jalen Williams only played 33 games. But in a league this deep, I'm banking on just one 60-win team and it won't be OKC. The Thunder just have the motivation to really put their pedal to the floor.
That doesn't matter a ton because their floor is so high, and they have so many deep, guaranteed sources of offense and defense, individually and collectively, but it's just enough of a factor for me to say this team to finish under 63 wins, if only slightly.
Phoenix Suns
- 2025-26 record: 45-37
- 2026-27 win total: 40.5
- Prediction: Under
Phoenix is definitely going to regress from its 45 wins last year. The question is how much? Personally, I think this is a 36-38 win team because they won last year by flat-out playing harder than their opponents.
That won't catch as many teams by surprise this season, and it's just tough to sustain that winning blueprint over multiple seasons when you're at a talent deficit against two-thirds of the league. Lottery reform stands to punish this team considerably, too. The Suns killed the bad teams last year: 23-4 against bottom-10 opponents, per Cleaning the Glass. Those are teams that are no longer incentivized to concede defeat.
Also, can Dillon Brooks really repeat his 2025-26 season? It wasn't the most efficient, but this guy was a flat-out stud second scorer. Maybe he really is that. But a Brooks regression is certainly on the table. Combine all of this with the strength of the West and the league overall, and I just don't see a 40-win roster in Phoenix.
Portland Trail Blazers
- 2025-26 record: 42-40
- 2026-27 win total: 41.5
- Prediction: Over
I like this over quite a bit. I have the same concerns about the Ja Morant/Damian Lillard pairing as everyone else, but I don't think it'll take Micah Nori -- who's on a one-year contract and doesn't have time to mess around with losing lineups -- long to move Morant to the bench. From there, the upside of his scoring becomes much more of a bonus play.
Outside of that concern, I love this team. Lillard feels so right back in this uniform and I have no reason to think he'll be anything less than very good. They'll have to figure out the balance of on-ball creation as Deni Avdija is probably the guy that deserves the most usage and Lillard, though obviously capable, was never the best version of himself off the ball in Milwaukee.
Still, we're not talking about a contender here. We're just talking about finishing a little above .500 for a team with a potentially still-elite shot creator Lillard, an All-NBA-level player in Avdija, a top-shelf rim protector in Donovan Clingan, a first-class wing defender in Toumani Camara, and the wing depth of Jrue Holiday, Morant and Scoot Henderson -- who's in a contract year and coming off a pretty quietly solid third season -- to cover for the six-month loss of Shaedon Sharpe, who will be back hopefully for the post-All-Star stretch run. This is a good team unless Morant completely screws it up.
Sacramento Kings
- 2025-26 record: 22-60
- 2026-27 win total: 21.5
- Prediction: Under
This is the worst team in the league. The 21.5 total reflects that (by far BetMGM's lowest line), but it's not low enough. Darius Acuff Jr. is going to put up a barrelful of empty stats, which will hopefully be a fun reason to watch the Kings, but there isn't a defensive bone to be found on this team.
Zach LaVine has to get traded or bought out or something. Domantas Sabonis, too. I mean, this team could very likely be starting Ben Simmons on opening night. If you think they're going over this line just because it's so low, fine. But I can't bring myself to endorse any sort of winning wager on a team this bad.
San Antonio Spurs
- 2025-26 record: 62-20
- 2026-27 win total: 59.5
- Prediction: Over
There's a blueprint for winning 60-plus games. It starts with talent, which, of course, the Spurs are loaded with. Then it's about depth, because guys are going to miss games and winning 60 necessitates putting a high-level NBA team on the floor every night.
And then there's the "something to prove" factor. Victor Wembanyama sets this tone. He openly talks about wanting to win the MVP, so he's going to play the 65 games at least, and he's going to play them hard. Dylan Harper is pushing to prove worthy of all the hype. The Spurs believe they are on the cusp of a dynasty. In the initial stages of championship development, teams like the 2014-15 Warriors and 2024-25 Thunder play the regular season with the fervor of a team announcing the true beginning of its reign.
Last season, the Spurs sort of crashed the party. This season, they're throwing the party. They're going to be out to dominate every single night, and with the baseline defense of Wembanyama and so many viable creators that can cover for each other's injuries and/or off nights, the baseline here is just too high with this kind of motivation to see the Spurs going under 60 wins. I think 65-67 wins is the real number.
Utah Jazz
- 2025-26 record: 22-60
- 2026-27 win total: 37.5
- Prediction: Over
The Jazz are finally ready to start playing games with the actual goal of winning. They've traded for Jaren Jackson Jr. and kept Lauri Markkanen all these years. They've seen Keyonte George develop into a lethal weapon. They drafted Darryn Peterson at second overall. And with the spacing this team has with its bigs, those two could combine for 40 a lot of nights. Utah's offense will be very good.
The defense is another story. Walker Kessler is gone, and Jackson Jr. is an almost unbelievably poor rebounder for his size. Jusuf Nurkic being out to start the year (listed as a four-week injury, but we'll see) really hurts Utah's rebounding prospects and he is a passer who can tie a lot of this offense together. The bottom line is Utah was competitive in a good amount of games last year until it decided not to be, and there is real talent on this roster. Give me the over as this team fights for a play-in berth.