Michael Wilson, Terry McLaurin headline Week 4's Regression Files

Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.

Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.

Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.

In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.

▶ Total Team Air Yards

Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through two weeks of the regular season.

LA Rams

Sean McVay, after a sleepy Week 1 in Australia, has turned the air yards machine as high as it will go. His Rams offense has a league-leading 847 total team air yards over the past couple weeks, going 9 percent of their expected pass rate in Week 2 and 11.5 percent over in Week 3. Only the Cowboys have been pass-heavier over that two-week stretch.

This, naturally, has led to an ocean of air yards for Davante Adams and no one else. Adams now leads the NFL in air yards (477), taking in 44 percent of the Rams’ air yards on the year. There isn’t much to be said about any non-Adams LA pass catcher though. With Puka Nacua sidelined, Konata Mumpfield is second on the team with a 15 percent air yards share over the past two games. Tyler Higbee, unbelievably, is third.

If Terrance Ferguson misses time with his ankle injury, Higbee would be a thing in 12-team leagues.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offense subverting (air yards and pass volume) expectation has more to do with a putrid defense than it does with a coaching staff that desperately wants to air it out. We know this because the Fins rank in the bottom half of the league in early down pass rate.

Miami ranked sixth in total team air yards in Week 3 against the Chiefs. They have more air yards than all but seven offenses this year. That they’re 23rd in pass attempts speaks to the painfully slow pace of their offense and the high-variance nature of their consistently downfield throws (their 16.3 percent deep passing rate leads the NFL). Malik Willis is averaging 10.1 air yards per attempt, the third highest mark in the league.

It was Chris Bell with the (slightly) bigger day against Kansas City, but it was Malik Washington who continued operating as the air yards eater in the Miami offense. He had another 95 air yards in Week 3, bringing his season total to 248 -- 25th among all receivers. I write this ahead of the Dolphins’ Week 4 nightmare matchup against the fantasy football-destroying Vikings defense. Still, Washington’s air yards profile is intriguing.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers continued their air yards onslaught in Week 3’s confounding loss to the literal Browns. Bryce Young and company racked up the week’s third most team air yards and now rank third in the league in total team air yards. That the Panthers have the NFL’s fourth highest pass rate over expected and one of the highest early-down pass rates makes sense in this air yards-centric context.

Jalen Coker’s thigh injury sets up Tetairoa McMillan to devour air yards in the Carolina offense if Coker misses time. This will boost both McMillan’s weekly floor and ceiling. I should (and will) mention a weird little thing about the team’s air yards distribution against the Browns: A guy named Brycen Tremayne led the team with a hefty 32 percent air yards share. He ran a route on 77 percent of Young’s drop backs too. He caught four of six targets for 83 yards. Like I said: Weird.

But if Tremayne — who had never recorded a target before Sunday — is the Coker replacement, he’s worth a look in deep leagues this week. This, of course, assumes that Xavier Legette remains out with a knee injury. The Panthers in Week 4 get the air yards machine known as the Lions defense.

Here are NFL offenses with the fewest air yards through Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings

This is not your slightly older cousin’s Vikings offense. Kevin O’Connell’s scheme usually produces a good number of pass attempts and air yards — enough to support two and sometimes three pass catchers for fantasy purposes.

That has not been the case through three weeks of the 2026 season (ask your older cousin about KOC going 13 percent of his expected pass rate with Nick Mullens under center). Only five teams have fewer total team air yards than the Vikings, and only the Falcons, Dolphins, and Giants have been run-heavier. This has created a Minnesota offense that can reliably support exactly one fantasy-viable pass catcher. Usually that’s Justin Jefferson; on Sunday against the Bucs — with Jefferson out with an ankle issue — it was Jordan Addison.

Addison’s 157 air yards ranked third among all wideouts in Week 3. His 70 percent air yards share — a downright silly rate — was by far the highest of the week. The Vikings are 5 percent below their expected pass rate in neutral situations so far this season and they are passing at a 48 percent rate on early downs. They’re clearly not interested in airing it out with an outstanding defense that can keep them in (almost) any game. That’s going to make it next to impossible to rely on Addison when Jefferson is healthy, or to bank on production from TJ Hockenson or Jauan Jennings if/when Jefferson misses time.

Chicago Bears

The Ben Johnson Machine’s air yards situation didn’t change all that much with Case Keenum at the helm in Week 3 against the Eagles. The Bears had 201 total air yards against Philly, the seventh fewest of Week 3. They had averaged 222.5 air yards per game over the season’s first couple contests.

It’s worth noting that Rome Odunze continues dominating air yards in the Chicago offense. Against the Eagles he had a 48 percent air yards share. Luther Burden was second with 25 percent of the air yards. Odunze will be a frustratingly high-variance WR3/4, but he should have some weekly upside as long as he sees 40-50 percent of Chicago’s limited air yards.

Indianapolis Colts

The team’s post-Alec Pierce future started in Week 3. The Colts ranked a respectable 18th in total team air yards (256). Josh Downs became an air yards monster, accounting for 59 percent of Indy’s air yards. Only four players in Week 3 had more air yards than Downs, who saw his average depth of target (15) explode with Pierce sidelined.

Downs should be viewed as a WR3 with plenty of air yards-fueled upside for now. Laquon Treadwell, the replacement for Pierce, saw one target on 31 routes in Week 3. He’s not going to be a thing for fantasy purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

Not to be dramatic, but the Niners’ air yards production is the Great Deceiver, mostly because they haven’t been challenged through their first three games.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranks fifth in pass rate over expected in neutral situations -- when the game is within one score. That (strongly) suggests the team’s total air yards numbers will see an uptick if the 49ers ever play anyone who can keep up with them. Maybe their Week 4 opponents, the Broncos, can do just that. Denver’s defense has seen the fourth most air yards per game against them through Week 3, and the eighth highest pass rate over expected. The Broncos are shaping up as a pass funnel defense.

George Kittle, who ranks fourth among tight ends in air yards through Week 3, saw a bunch of air yards last week against Arizona with Mike Evans sidelined. Kittle, obviously, is an every-week option in 12-team leagues. If Evans misses Week 4, Jacob Cowing could be forced into something close to an every down role and potentially become an air yards darling for Brock Purdy.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, with an average depth of target of 6.5 yards, are just not going to support all that many productive pass catchers until or unless their entire offensive identity changes.

Patrick Mahomes’ check-down offense last week against the Dolphins had a grand total of 150 air yards, the third fewest in the league. KC’s offense strikes me more as a PPR operation than anything else. They rank seventh in pass rate over expected and fourth in early-down pass rate. So there should be some volume to exploit here, just not a lot of air yards. Probably this means Xavier Worthy is done, for now, as a fantasy option, and Rashee Rice will rely on a bunch of short targets every week.

Prayer Yards Warriors (Players who could see positive regression)

Roman Wilson (PIT)

Wilson made a fleeting appearance in the Prayer Yards section of last week’s Regression Files. That’s what happens when you see a bunch of garbage downfield looks from the league’s last elder millennial starting quarterback.

Well, even after last week’s fat stat line (three catches, 60 yards, one touchdown) against the Bengals, Wilson remains a positive regression bro headed into Week 4 against Cleveland. Wilson, as you can see above, has been the recipient of a lot of inaccurate air yards. Two-thirds of his air yards have been prayer yards, to be precise.

The Steelers are a pass heavy team and that’s not going to change unless Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers retire together this week. They rank sixth in neutral pass rate over expected and 15th in early-down pass rate. That should keep DK Metcalf and Wilson afloat as air yards eaters in the coming weeks. Through Week 3 Metcalf has accounted for 36 percent of the team’s air yards while Wilson has seen a 31 percent share.

Only the Falcons have allowed more air yards this season than the Browns, Pittsburgh’s Week 4 opponent. This humble blogger wouldn’t be stunned if both Wilson and Metcalf go for 100 air yards here. You never know, some of them might actually turn into real yards.

Michael Wilson (ARI)

The Cardinals in Week 3 against the Niners finally posted an air yards total (306, seventh on the week) that didn’t make me want to pour coffee on my lap. That, naturally, led to 154 air yards for Wilson, the team’s only deep threat. That was good for a 51 percent air yards share. That’s the stuff.

Arizona is 12th in pass rate over expected this season, a far cry from their league-leading PROE a year ago. The Cardinals seem to at least be interested in a balanced offense. Probably that means Wilson won’t see a glut of air yards in any sort of game script, the way he did in 2025. He’ll be a little more dependent on game script.

That could be less-than-great news for Week 4, as the Cardinals take on the listless Giants. Though you’re still starting Wilson in most fantasy formats, this doesn’t profile as an explosive, air yards-laden spot for Jacoby Brissett’s primary downfield guy.

Malik Washington (MIA)

I would like to tell the newspaper that I am not Washington’s PR guy. I just like air yards, and Washington is seeing a lot of them, as mentioned above.

That 68 percent of his air yards have been inaccurate prayer yards probably means he’s due for some good regression in the next week or two (or three). Miami will likely be a little more pass heavy with De’Von Achane out for the year too. The Dolphins this week take on a Minnesota defense that has allowed the league’s fourth most air yards.

Malik Nabers (NYG)

Get used to seeing Nabers on the prayer yards list. Jameis Winston is playing worse than any QB in recent memory and the Giants just acquired one of the only quarterbacks alive today who might be worse than Winston. There is no off ramp of Nabers here, no Case Keenum coming to his rescue.

It’s actually Malachi Fields who leads the Giatns with a 30 percent air yards share. Nabers is second with a 27 percent share.

In Week 3 against the Titans, Naber had a whopping five air yards on six targets from Winston. I would call it bleak, but that doesn’t even begin to describe it.

Terry McLaurin (WAS)

Just as your favorite Regression Files writer suspected, the McLaurin Air Yards Machine went brrrr in Week 3 with Marcus Mariota at quarterback for Washington. McLaurin accounted for 45 percent of the team’s air yards, good for 102 low-calorie air yards on the day.

McLaurin, I think, fits Mariota better than Stefon Diggs, who was going to cook if Jayden Daniels started 17 games. I would be more bullish on Scary Terry if Mariota gets another start in Week 4 against the Colts.

▶ Bullseye Enjoyers (Players Who Could See Negative Regression)

Ladd McConkey (LAC)

I take very little pleasure in telling you McConkey, who’s barely playable right now, is running quite hot in the air yards department. His aDOT of 13.6 yards tells us he’s not just seeing easy, short-area targets from Justin Herbert. The concerning thing for now is that Herbert has been deadly accurate when targeting McConkey. That, as you might know, has barely mattered at all.

What I’m saying is that things can definitely get worse for McConkey in the coming weeks if (or when) he sees a little of the bad kind of regression. Maybe if the Bolts do the right thing and abandon a nonexistent rushing attack led by the worst lead back in the NFL, pass volume will increase enough to offset any (or most) coming regression.

Kalif Raymond (CHI)

Raymond was sent here to chew gum and ruin your fantasy season. I have bad news: Kalif is all out of gum.

Raymond’s involvement in the Chicago passing game has been a disaster for both Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, though things turned around for Burden in Week 3 with Case Keenum targeting him on 41 percent of his pass routes. This is just me dropping in to say 93 percent of Raymond’s targets have been on-target this season. Even for a short-area and intermediate guy like Raymond, that’s quite high. He’s running red hot with a 65 percent route rate. Those sort of things usually don’t last in our little game.

Dontayvian Wicks (PHI)

It’s pretty rare for a deep ball specialist like Wicks to see a 71 percent bullseye rate through three games. That’s what we have here though, and it might mean the bad kind of regression for Wicks headed into Week 4 (and beyond).

Wicks in Week 3 again led the Eagles in air yards (70 air yards, a 41 percent share). That he’s second on the team in first-read targets could mean Wicks avoids massive regression in the next few weeks. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles rank 23rd in total team air yards and in Week 4 they take on a Rams defense allowing the 11th fewest air yards. That could be a problem for any Philly pass catcher not named DeVonta Smith.

Jakobi Meyers (JAC)

Meyers made the most of his revenge game against the Patriots in Week 3. That’s nice. You feel good for him. You also know, thanks to my guy Brad Beatson, that only 8 percent of Meyers’ air yards this season have been off-target.

Even after last week’s outburst, Meyers has been targeted on a mere 16 percent of his routes in 2026. He’s a distant second to Parker Washington in first-read targets (19 to 9). Be careful with Meyers in the coming weeks.