The first round of the 2026 WNBA Playoffs is finally here! All four of the series in the quarterfinals will tip off on Sunday one right after the other. The action begins with one of the league's best playoff matchups between the Liberty and Lynx.
Minnesota and New York have been two of the W's most dominant teams over the past few seasons. But only the Liberty have ever stood up to the Aces and actually won a WNBA championship in recent seasons. Both franchises have championship expectations for this season, which should lead to an incredibly competitive series.
Will the No. 1 seed Lynx flex their muscles in the quarterfinals? Or can the Liberty pull off a huge upset, starting off the postseason with a bang?
Here are three bold predictions before the Lynx and Liberty go toe-to-toe in their three-game playoff series.
Watch WNBA games LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Liberty grab more rebounds than Lynx in every game of the series
One basic basketball 101 topic is that controlling the boards is a great way to control a game. This will always be true in the game of basketball.
Then it should be no surprise that both New York and Minnesota excel at hoovering in rebounds.
New York finished the regular season averaging 35.5 rebounds per game, which ranked 3rd in the WNBA. Minnesota was not too far behind with 34.5 rebounds per game, which ranked 5th in the W. But in a playoff series, the actual players on the court matter more than season statistics. When looking at this matchup through that lens, the Liberty clearly have an advantage.
Jonquel Jones is one of the best rebounders in the entire league, averaging 9.1 rebounds per game this season. That puts her at sixth in the WNBA only trailing elite players like Angel Reese, A'ja Wilson, and a few others. She is a the best rebounder in this series, followed by Stewie at 8.3 rebounds per game.
By comparison, the most efficient rebounder for Minnesota is Natasha Howard at just 7.6 rebounds per game.
Of course rebounds are not everything. After all, getting a rebound does not score points. But the Liberty could keep themselves alive in some tough moments by gaining extra possessions thanks to rebounds.
New York will come out on top in rebounds in every single game of this series.
Breanna Stewart, Olivia Miles each score at least 30 points in at least one game
The playoffs are when superstar players have the biggest moments of their careers. Sabrina Ionescu knows better than anyone that one shot can change the course of WNBA history.
As such, fans should expect each team to feature their best players throughout the series.
The Liberty will be counting on Breanna Stewart to dominate in the paint against the Lynx. Meanwhile, the Lynx should put a lot on Olivia Miles' plate as they have done all year.
Article Continues BelowAt this point, it is fair to assume that each of those players will have at least one great game in this series.
Both Miles and Stewie will go over 30 points in at least one game each during the three-game series.
Remember, Miles has scored 30 or more points three times during the regular season. Stewie pulled off the same accomplishment only twice. Either player can completely take over a game when needed.
Whichever star shines the brightest could end up deciding the outcome of this matchup.
Lynx sweep Liberty and advance to semifinals
So which team will one step closer to the WNBA Finals?
Both teams are evenly matched and it would not be surprising for this series to go all the way to Game 3. But this is a bold predictions piece, so simply assuming the obvious will not be enough here.
The more surprising outcome would be one team completely dominating the other. Honestly, this prediction could go either way and it is really difficult to pick a winner. Minnesota gets the edge here for a few reasons.
One advantage that New York has over most of the league is their deep bench. The Liberty can lean on their bench talent against inferior teams to rack up points while the the other team's stars are resting. But that same advantage won't be as strong against Minnesota.
Remember, the Lynx have solid bench players like Chloe Bibby, Dorka Juhasz, Aari McDonald, and Maya Caldwell. That unit has enough talent to keep pace with New York if both teams have all of their reserves on the court.
Perhaps more importantly, the Liberty have looked vulnerable at times this season. Obviously New York pulled themselves together enough to make the playoffs, but there's no denying that they are a beatable team. That is almost the opposite vibe of Minnesota, who did not skip a beat early in the season despite not having Collier for several games.
Ultimately, the Lynx will come out on top after two games and advance to the semifinals.