UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan opens the card with a fight between Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Kareckaite-Gatto prediction and pick.
Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-1, 1-2 UFC) is coming off a Fight of the Night unanimous-decision loss to Regina Tarin in February 2026. Before that, she beat Nicolle Caliari by split decision in January 2025, after losing to Dione Barbosa at UFC 301, as she comes into her fight this weekend against Melissa Gatto.
Melissa Gatto (9-3-2, 3-3 UFC) is coming off a controversial majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April 2026. Before that, she stopped Tamires Vidal with a third-round body-punch TKO in May 2024. She's looking to get back in the win column as she comes into her fight this weekend against Ernesta Kareckaite.
UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Ernesta Kareckaite-Melissa Gatto Odds
Ernesta Kareckaite: +100
Melissa Gatto: -120
Over 2.5 Rounds: -395
Under 2.5 Rounds: +280
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Ernesta Kareckaite Will Win
Kareckaite is a live underdog, and her volume and length give her a clear path to a decision win. Here's the case.
Kareckaite lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute, more than double Gatto's 3.47. That output should win rounds on the scorecards, especially if the fight stays on the feet.
Her 71-inch reach and 5'9″ frame let her throw in bunches from range. Gatto needs to close distance to land her power shots, and that exposes her to Kareckaite's counters. One model also flags Kareckaite's third-round volume as the factor that could take the cards if she keeps the fight standing.
Gatto's best route is the takedown, so Kareckaite's defense matters most. Gatto averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Kareckaite attempts only 0.75 per three rounds. If Kareckaite stays disciplined and gets back to her feet quickly, Gatto's grappling edge fades.
Kareckaite is also coming off a competitive decision loss to Regina Tarin and has shown she can go the distance. After that setback she should be sharper and more motivated, and a fast pace over three rounds suits her. I like Kareckaite by unanimous decision.
Why Melissa Gatto Will Win
Gatto is a slight favorite and her power and durability should decide it. Here's the case.
Gatto brings 9-3-2 experience and a 3-3 UFC mark into the cage, against Kareckaite's 1-2 UFC record. She has also been tested more at the UFC level.
Her power is the biggest separator. She stopped Tamires Vidal with a third-round TKO in May 2024, and she has finishing ability that Kareckaite hasn't shown at this level. One analytics model also flags Gatto's power and durability edge as real.
Kareckaite throws in bunches, but she gets hit nearly as often as she lands. That trade favors the harder hitter. Gatto can walk through exchanges and make her opponent pay for every flurry.
The same analysis expects Gatto to strike mainly to close distance and tie up. Once the fight reaches the clinch, Kareckaite's length matters less. Gatto can wear her down there and take control of the rounds.
Article Continues BelowKareckaite is also coming off a unanimous decision loss to Regina Tarin in February 2026. Gatto should be steadier in the key moments. I like Gatto to grind out a decision, or finish late.
Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Melissa Gatto Prediction & Pick
Gatto should win a close decision in a fight the betting market sees as close to a pick'em.
Gatto is 9-3-2 overall and 3-3 in the UFC. Kareckaite is 6-2-1 and 1-2 in the UFC.
Kareckaite throws in bunches, but she gets hit nearly as often as she lands. That trade favors Gatto, who has the power and durability edge.
Gatto should strike mainly to close the distance and tie up. Her TKO of Tamires Vidal in 2024 shows she can finish when she gets her hands on someone.
Kareckaite is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Regina Tarin. She can win rounds early, but Gatto's pressure should take over late.
Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Melissa Gatto Prediction & Pick: Melissa Gatto (-120), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-395)