UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the prelims with a fight between Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Prado-Bonfim prediction and pick.
Francisco Prado (12-5, 1-5 UFC) dropped a unanimous decision to Charles Radtke in April, following a split-decision loss to Nikolay Veretennikov last July. Those setbacks extended his skid to four, leaving the Argentine prospect searching for a much-needed rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ismael Bonfim.
Ismael Bonfim (20-7, 2-4 UFC) enters on a three-fight losing streak after Axel Sola submitted him with a first-round brabo choke in July. Previously, Chris Padilla stopped him with second-round punches in November, leaving the Brazilian seeking redemption as he comes into his fight this weekend against Francisco Prado on Saturday.
UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Francisco Prado-Ismael Bonfim Odds
Francisco Prado: -130
Ismael Bonfim: +110
Over 1.5 Rounds: -220
Under 1.5 Rounds: +170
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Francisco Prado Will Win
Francisco Prado’s clearest route to beating Ismael Bonfim is sustained pressure that makes the Brazilian defend repeatedly rather than dictate exchanges. Both fighters enter on losing streaks, but Prado can win this matchup by prioritizing consistent offense over chasing one spectacular finishing sequence.
Bonfim’s recent stoppage defeats create a reason for Prado to test his reactions early with combinations and changes of attacking level. The objective should be forcing uncomfortable transitions, where Bonfim must shift between defending punches, protecting his position and responding to potential takedowns.
Friday’s weigh-in adds uncertainty, with Bonfim missing the lightweight limit by seven and a half pounds ahead of this scheduled matchup. That does not prove his conditioning will suffer, but Prado should make him work continuously rather than allow an easy opening round.
Prado must avoid turning pressure into recklessness, because Bonfim remains capable of producing damaging counters when opponents enter range without protection. Measured entries, short combinations and disciplined exits would let Prado build momentum while reducing the chances of surrendering a decisive counter.
I expect Prado to make this a demanding fight, using activity and persistence to push Bonfim beyond his preferred early exchanges.
Why Ismael Bonfim Will Win
Ismael Bonfim can beat Francisco Prado by combining cleaner striking with timely takedowns, rather than accepting an uncontrolled exchange of power punches. His strongest advantage is versatility, giving him opportunities to change the fight’s direction when Prado starts building momentum through aggressive forward pressure.
Prado relies on boxing and karate-based attacks to overwhelm opponents, but that aggression can create openings when he commits heavily to combinations. Bonfim should exploit those moments with counters, then reset his positioning instead of remaining stationary and inviting prolonged exchanges against the larger Argentine.
The striking numbers support Bonfim’s case, with a positive significant-strike differential compared with Prado’s negative differential entering this matchup at UFC Vegas 122. That suggests Bonfim has historically done a better job balancing offensive production with defensive responsibility, although statistics alone cannot determine Saturday’s result.
His grappling provides another route, particularly if Prado’s pressure makes predictable forward movement an opportunity for reactive takedowns and subsequent positional control. Bonfim can turn a difficult striking round into a more manageable one by forcing Prado to defend from underneath instead of advancing.
Article Continues BelowBonfim’s substantial weight miss introduces uncertainty, so this is a conditional matchup assessment rather than a confident guarantee about his physical readiness. Still, I favor Bonfim to mix disciplines and win a competitive decision.
Final Francisco Prado-Ismael Bonfim Prediction & Pick
Ismael Bonfim is my pick to beat Francisco Prado, with his ability to mix striking and grappling providing the deciding edge. Rather than matching Prado’s aggression, Bonfim should counter selectively and change levels when openings develop.
Prado can make this uncomfortable by maintaining pressure and forcing Bonfim into prolonged exchanges. However, advancing without disciplined positioning could expose him to counters and give Bonfim opportunities to disrupt his rhythm with takedowns.
Bonfim’s more favorable striking differential supports the case for cleaner offense, although neither fighter enters with dependable recent form. Both are trying to halt losing streaks, making confidence in either selection difficult to justify.
Bonfim’s substantial weight miss also introduces uncertainty about his preparation and conditioning. Prado should test that immediately, but the miss alone does not establish how Bonfim will perform.
Expect competitive exchanges before Bonfim’s variety begins separating them. I favor Bonfim by decision after mixing counters with timely grappling.
Final Francisco Prado-Ismael Bonfim Prediction & Pick: Ismael Bonfim (+110), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-220)