UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the main card with a fight between Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Camilo-Herbert prediction and pick.
Matheus Camilo (11-3, 2-1 UFC) stopped Nazim Sadykhov with first-round punches in June, finishing in 1:31 and securing his second consecutive victory. Previously, he outpointed Viacheslav Borshchev by unanimous decision in November, displaying his versatility and building momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jai Herbert on Saturday.
Jai Herbert (14-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) rebounded with a first-round knockout of Mandel Nallo in April, showcasing his dangerous striking. Previously, he lost a split decision to Chris Padilla in March 2025, leaving the veteran pursuing consecutive victories and renewed momentum as she comes into his fight this weekend against Matheus Camilo.
UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of Betonline.ag:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Matheus Camilo-Jai Herbert Odds
Matheus Camilo: -190
Jai Herbert: +161
Over 1.5 Rounds: -170
Under 1.5 Rounds: +145
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Matheus Camilo Will Win
Matheus Camilo should beat Jai Herbert by making this a layered contest rather than a straightforward battle between two dangerous lightweight strikers. Even Herbert acknowledges Camilo can box and wrestle, giving the younger fighter multiple ways to disrupt the veteran’s preferred rhythm.
The clearest advantage is wrestling, with Camilo averaging 4.16 takedowns per fifteen minutes and completing fifty-three percent of his recorded takedown attempts. That activity should force Herbert to consider level changes whenever Camilo steps forward, potentially opening opportunities for punches before the grappling begins.
Herbert’s sixty-six percent takedown defense means Camilo cannot assume every shot will succeed or waste energy attempting entries without adequate striking preparation. Combining punches with clinches and repeated attempts would offer a stronger approach, making Herbert defend successive threats rather than one isolated takedown.
Camilo’s recent knockout of Nazim Sadykhov demonstrated that opponents cannot focus exclusively on stopping his wrestling without respecting his power during exchanges. That threat should make his mixed attack more effective, especially if Herbert hesitates between defending punches and protecting his hips against entries.
Herbert’s experience remains an obstacle, and Camilo must avoid reckless advances that expose him to counters before he establishes control of exchanges.
Why Jai Herbert Will Win
Jai Herbert can beat Matheus Camilo by controlling distance and turning the Brazilian’s forward pressure into opportunities for clean counters. Herbert’s movement, feints and technical striking offer a route to victory if he makes Camilo chase instead of allowing comfortable entries.
The key is establishing the jab early, then changing angles before Camilo can connect his punches to a takedown attempt. Herbert should keep combinations short and balanced, preserving the footwork he needs to escape pressure rather than planting himself for extended exchanges.
Camilo’s wrestling presents the biggest obstacle, but Herbert has shown enough takedown defense to make disciplined positioning a realistic tactical priority. Avoiding the fence and forcing Camilo to shoot from farther away could reduce the effectiveness of those entries and create counterstriking opportunities.
Herbert also carries proven finishing power, coming off a first-round knockout victory that restored momentum ahead of this co-main event assignment. He does not need to dominate every exchange if he can punish one careless advance with a clean, decisive combination.
Article Continues BelowExperience should help Herbert recognize when to disengage, although it cannot compensate for losing position against Camilo’s mixed attacks.
Final Matheus Camilo-Jai Herbert Prediction & Pick
Matheus Camilo is my pick to beat Jai Herbert, with his wrestling providing the clearest route to neutralizing the veteran’s length. Camilo averages 4.16 takedowns per fifteen minutes, making his grappling a central factor here.
Herbert owns an eight-inch reach advantage and should threaten with straight punches whenever Camilo enters carelessly. Camilo must close distance behind combinations rather than chase takedowns from outside range and expose himself to counters.
The challenge is converting takedowns into meaningful control rather than allowing Herbert to stand immediately. Herbert’s ability to recover along the fence could keep this competitive, particularly if Camilo tires while repeatedly pursuing unsuccessful entries.
Camilo’s knockout of Nazim Sadykhov demonstrated that his opponent cannot focus exclusively on wrestling defense. Mixing that striking threat with level changes should create openings, although Herbert remains dangerous throughout every exchange.
Expect Herbert to land early before Camilo establishes pressure and grappling control. I favor Camilo by second-round TKO.
Final Matheus Camilo-Jai Herbert Prediction & Pick: Matheus Camilo (-190), OVER 1.5 Rounds (-170)