UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the main card with a rematch between Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III in the featherweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Fili-Kamaka prediction and pick.
Andre Fili (25-14, 13-13 UFC) suffered a second-round TKO loss to Vinicius Oliveira in June, following a split-decision defeat against Jose Delgado in March. With three losses in four appearances, the veteran featherweight urgently needs a rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kai Kamaka III.
Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1, 2-3 UFC) suffered a first-round TKO loss to Luke Riley in July, after beating Dakota Hope by split decision in April. That defeat halted his momentum following a successful UFC return, leaving him seeking redemption as he comes into his fight this weekend against Andre Fili.
UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Andre Fili-Kai Kamaka III Odds
Andre Fili: -148
Kai Kamaka III: +124
Over 2.5 Rounds: -180
Under 2.5 Rounds: +140
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Andre Fili Will Win
Andre Fili should beat Kai Kamaka III by using his length to control distance rather than accepting a constant pocket battle. His five-inch reach advantage creates opportunities to establish the jab, interrupt Kamaka’s entries and score before the shorter fighter can answer effectively.
Kamaka’s pressure is dangerous, but his defensive numbers suggest Fili will find opportunities when the Hawaiian advances without protecting himself between combinations. Kamaka absorbs more significant strikes per minute than Fili, making accurate counters an important part of the veteran’s potential route to victory.
Fili also has a realistic grappling option, especially against an opponent whose career takedown defense sits below sixty percent entering this matchup. Mixing level changes with his striking could force Kamaka to hesitate, reducing the forward momentum that makes his offense difficult to manage.
The key is selecting those wrestling exchanges carefully rather than wasting energy chasing takedowns without first establishing meaningful control of striking distance. Fili should use clinches and well-timed shots to disrupt Kamaka’s rhythm, then return to range whenever extended exchanges become unnecessarily risky.
Both fighters need a rebound, so experience alone cannot make Fili a reliable selection without disciplined execution of this specific game plan.
Why Kai Kamaka III Will Win
stoppage loss
Kai Kamaka III can beat Andre Fili by applying disciplined pressure, closing distance and denying the veteran comfortable exchanges at range. Kamaka has identified that approach as central to his game plan, believing he can frustrate Fili and reach his chin.
Fili’s length is an obstacle, but Kamaka can reduce its effectiveness by attacking the legs before advancing behind compact punching combinations. Early leg kicks could slow Fili’s movement, making it harder for him to maintain separation or escape when Kamaka begins pressing forward.
The key is cutting off exits rather than following Fili around the cage and walking onto jabs or well-timed counterpunches repeatedly. Kamaka should force shorter exchanges, where sustained combinations could produce the cleaner scoring moments instead of letting Fili dictate every engagement.
Fili’s recent stoppage loss gives Kamaka reason to test his defense, although it does not guarantee another knockout against the experienced featherweight. Some analysts favor Kamaka because they believe Fili’s declining durability creates opportunities for a decisive counter during otherwise competitive striking exchanges.
Article Continues BelowKamaka must respect Fili’s counters and wrestling options, keeping his stance balanced rather than sacrificing position while pursuing damage near the fence.
Final Andre Fili-Kai Kamaka III Prediction & Pick
Kai Kamaka III is my pick to beat Andre Fili, with disciplined pressure providing his clearest route to winning rounds. Kamaka intends to crowd Fili and disrupt his rhythm, but must avoid rushing into counters.
Fili’s reach advantage should make the opening exchanges competitive, particularly if he establishes his jab early. Kamaka needs to cut off escape routes rather than follow him, forcing exchanges where length becomes less influential.
Attacking Fili’s legs could help Kamaka slow his movement and create opportunities to advance behind combinations. That approach offers a more sustainable path than chasing a knockout against an experienced opponent capable of adjusting.
Fili can change momentum with timely takedowns, so Kamaka must maintain balance while pressing forward. Neither fighter’s recent results inspire confidence, making this a competitive prediction rather than a comfortable selection.
Expect Fili to score at range before Kamaka increasingly closes distance. I favor Kamaka by decision after edging the exchanges.
Final Andre Fili-Kai Kamaka III Prediction & Pick: Kai Kamaka (+124), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-180)