UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan is headlined by a five-round middleweight fight between Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Allen-Duncan prediction and pick.
Brendan Allen (27-7, 15-4 UFC) beat Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision in June, extending his winning streak to three. Previously, he stopped Reinier de Ridder after four rounds last October, showcasing his proven endurance and impressive all-around versatility as he comes into his fight this weekend against Christian Leroy Duncan.
Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) enters on a five-fight winning streak after unanimous decision victories over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. Those wins against ranked opposition underline his growing momentum and ability to deliver over three rounds as he comes into his fight this weekend against Brendan Allen.
UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of Betonline.ag:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Brendan Allen-Christian Leroy Duncan Odds
Brendan Allen: -117
Christian Leroy Duncan: +100
Over 3.5 Rounds: -115
Under 3.5 Rounds: -101
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Brendan Allen Will Win
Brendan Allen’s strongest route to victory at UFC Vegas 122 is making Christian Leroy Duncan wrestle rather than trade at range. With fourteen submission victories, Allen brings a ground threat that could turn Duncan’s defensive reactions into opportunities for control and finishes.
Duncan’s reach and creative striking make prolonged exchanges dangerous, so Allen should prioritize pressure behind measured punches instead of chasing combinations. Closing distance into clinches would limit Duncan’s room for kicks and spinning attacks while creating opportunities to drag him down.
Allen also enters with momentum, having beaten Marvin Vettori, Reinier de Ridder and Edmen Shahbazyan across his latest three appearances. That run supports confidence in his ability to handle contrasting styles, although Duncan’s speed presents a different problem to solve.
The five-round format could reward Allen if he forces repeated defensive wrestling exchanges and makes Duncan work to regain his feet. Duncan faces his first UFC main event, while Allen intends to test him beyond the three-round distance against sustained pressure.
Allen must respect Duncan’s counters, particularly knees when changing levels, because careless entries could undermine his entire game plan early.
Why Christian Leroy Duncan Will Win
Christian Leroy Duncan can beat Brendan Allen at UFC Vegas 122 by controlling distance and making the American pay for every entry. His four-inch reach advantage, nimble footwork and varied kicking attack give him the tools to dictate exchanges without accepting prolonged pocket battles.
Allen’s latest victory over Edmen Shahbazyan exposed opportunities for a sharper striker, with Shahbazyan edging significant strikes ninety to eighty-nine. Allen also completed only one of four takedown attempts, suggesting Duncan could enjoy substantial striking time if he frustrates those initial entries.
Duncan’s recent performance against Jared Cannonier offers another reason for confidence, despite surrendering five takedowns during that fight. He still finished with a sixty-eight to fifteen advantage in significant strikes, demonstrating that conceding takedowns does not automatically mean losing the contest.
The priority should be immediate defensive movement, protecting his neck and rebuilding position rather than settling beneath Allen’s dangerous submission game. Duncan cannot assume those escapes will come easily, but surviving the grappling exchanges would allow his superior distance striking to influence subsequent rounds.
Article Continues BelowIntercepting knees could also punish Allen’s level changes, potentially turning the American’s preferred route to victory into his greatest vulnerability.
Final Brendan Allen-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick
Brendan Allen should edge Christian Leroy Duncan in a competitive five-round main event. Oddsmakers also lean toward Allen, listing him at -140 against Duncan at +120.
Duncan will win moments on the feet with his reach, footwork and kicks. Allen can reduce that damage by pressing forward, tying up in the clinch and forcing scrambles.
The grappling matchup is the fight's deciding factor. Allen's submission threat should make Duncan wary, and it could drain his energy over the later rounds.
Expect Duncan to hurt Allen with a counter in the early rounds. Allen should weather that and take over through takedowns, top control and steady pressure.
I'm picking Allen by unanimous decision, 48-47 on the cards.
Final Brendan Allen-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick: Brendan Allen (-117), OVER 3.5 Rounds (-115)