Doubtful the Miami Dolphins (0-5) climb out of the cellar in the AFC East this season, but if they are going to, it almost has to begin with a win Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets (2-4). For New York, Sunday offers an opportunity to take another step big picture as an organization and in the moment remain on the fringe of the playoff picture.
The Jets are certainly far more competitive than they were a season ago but after a loss last weekend to the Patriots and looking at the rest of their schedule, a win Sunday at home against the winless Dolphins is paramount. They will need more from their offense, though, if they are to win as the Jets average just 18.7 points per game. Miami’s offense is scoring an average of 14 points per game but it’s worse than that for the winless Dolphins. Miami has yet to even lead for even a second in any of their five games this season.
New York enters the game following a 26-19 loss to the Patriots in Week 6. The Jets fell behind early and could not overcome their mistakes despite another competitive defensive effort. Prior to that defeat, they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 17-12 win over Cleveland, showing the formula they hope to replicate against Miami: strong defense, ball control, and avoiding turnovers. The Dolphins’ most recent outing was a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati on October 11, arguably their most encouraging offensive performance of the season. Miami rallied in the second half and scored 24 points after managing only 46 total points across its previous four games, but defensive breakdowns once again proved costly as the losing streak extended to five games.
Quarterback play will be one of the game’s biggest storylines. Veteran Geno Smith has provided stability for the Jets, throwing for 1,336 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception through six games. While the Jets’ offense has not consistently produced explosive numbers, Smith has protected the football and given New York a chance to win most weeks. Not the same situation in South Beach. Miami’s Malik Willis has been underwhelming. Yes, the skill positions are lacking with the Dolphins, but the long-time Green Bay backup has to be better. Willis has thrown for 849 yards with a mere two touchdowns along with four interceptions. The Dolphins need greater efficiency if they are going to win or even lead a game.
The Dolphins swept both meetings in 2025, including a 34-10 victory at MetLife Stadium last December.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two in this AFC East tilt.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Dolphins vs. Jets
- Date: Sunday, October 25, 2026
- Time: 1:00P
- Site: MetLife Stadium
- City: East Rutherford, NJ
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odd: Dolphins vs. Jets
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (+195), New York Jets (-238)
- Spread: Jets -4.5
- Total: 39.5
This line has grown in favor of the Jets since opening with the Jets favored by 2.5. The Total, however, has dipped a couple points since opening at 41.5.
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Expert Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Jets
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Dolphins and the Jets:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Dolphins +4.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 39.5.
Here’s why the Dolphins +4.5 is the best bet:
Miami is 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in this series since 2021-22, and they won and covered both meetings last season. Division underdogs are 20-8 against the spread this season — the second-best start in the Super Bowl era. The Jets are being asked to lay their most points since mid-November 2024, and they went 0-2 straight up and against the spread as a favorite last season. New York ranks 32nd in red-zone efficiency and has scored just four touchdowns in the last three games, while Miami ranks 2nd in third-down conversion rate defense. Geno Smith has been sacked 19 times in five games, and Breece Hall didn’t practice Wednesday. In a game between a rested team that has dominated this series and a favorite that has struggled in this exact role, this has all the makings of a one-score game.
Dolphins vs. Jets: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Dolphins are 2-3 against the spread this season
- The Jets are 4-1-1 against the spread this season
- Miami is 2-3 to the OVER this season
- New York is 2-4 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: Dolphins vs. Jets
- Dolphins: Malik Willis
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 849 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 68.4 RTG, Sacked 14 times - Jets: Geno Smith
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 1336 Passing Yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 101.8 RTG, Sacked 19 times
Dolphins vs. Jets: Top Playmakers
Dolphins
- RB Ollie Gordon II
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 47 carries for 236Yds, 3 TDs / 5 receptions on 5 targets for 14 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Malik Washington
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 23 receptions on 36 targets for 262 Yds, 0 TDs - TE Greg Dulcich
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 13 receptions on 17 targets for 127 Yds, 0 TDs
Jets
- RB Braelon Hall
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 74 carries for 314 Yds, 2 TDs / 9 receptions on 12 targets for 45 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Garrett Wilson
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 35 receptions on 48 targets for 418 Yds, 3 TDs - TE Kenyon Sadiq
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 15 receptions on 24 targets for 158 Yds, 1 TD
Dolphins vs. Jets: Injury Update
Dolphins
- WR Caleb Douglas (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB Jaylen Wright (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- TE Will Kacmarek (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Jordan Phillips (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Robert Beal Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Marcellus Dial Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Jets
- RB Breece Hall (quad) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Adonai Mitchell (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LG Dylan Parham (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Joseph Ossai (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
- DE Will McDonald IV (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT T’Vondre Sweat (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Kiko Mauigoa (thigh) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
- WR Kene Nwangwu (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
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