Thursday Night Football in Dallas means drama and I for one cannot wait to see how this game unfolds! Dallas enters as a -8.5 point favorite with a game total of 47.5 following their 34-30 win over the Houston Texans. Tampa Bay is one of four teams in the NFL that are still searching for their first win of the season and will be starting Jalon Daniels in place of Baker Mayfield (thumb) for a second-straight week.
Tampa Bay’s first game without Mayfield didn’t go so well. The Bucs managed 275 yards of total offense in a 17-14 loss to the Packers, averaging 4.5 yards per play. Tampa Bay turned the ball over twice and had more rushing yards (141) than passing (134). Tampa Bay’s offense enters the week last in EPA and have allowed a league-high 40 points off turnovers this season. The Bucs defense didn’t record a sack against Green Bay, but did get an interception, plus four TFL. Tampa Bay’s struggled gain pressure, but does have at least one interception in three out of four games.
Dallas pulled off a 11-play drive for 74 yards in 1:41 to stun Houston 34-30. The Cowboys scored a touchdown on four out of their five second-half drives compared to two made field goals, two missed field goals, and one punt in the first half. Dallas outgained Houston 399-397 and averaged 5.5 yards per play. The Dallas defense gave up 7.6 yards per play and allowed 28 or more points in three out of four games. CeeDee Lamb had a career day with 17 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown, while Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards on 32-of-45. Javonte Williams led the way with three rushing touchdowns and 62 yards on 19 carries.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Buccaneers at Cowboys
· Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
· Time: 8:15 PM ET
· Site: AT&T Stadium
· City: Arlington, TX
· TV/Streaming: Prime Video
NBC Sports is your home for all the latest updates on this matchup, featuring live odds, player news, expert analysis, and predictions.
Latest Game Odds for Buccaneers at Cowboys
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys (+360), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-470)
· Spread: Cowboys -8.5 (-115)
· Total: 47.5
The spread was Dallas -10 and has been bet down to -8.5. The projected total for this game was 52.5 before Baker Mayfield was injured.
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Expert picks & predictions for Buccaneers at Cowboys
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Cowboys to cover -8.5 and go Over the 28.5 team total:
“The best unit on the field will be the Dallas Cowboys offense by far. Tampa Bay on a short week does not sound appealing and I doubt Jalon Daniels will be effective. Playing catch up could be tough for Daniels here especially if the Cowboys defense is just decent. Dallas scored 37, 31, and 34 points in the last three games. Tampa Bay has faced Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love in the past three games, so it’s safe to say Dak Prescott and this Cowboys offense can score 30-plus and cover.”
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Buccaneers at Cowboys betting trends and stats
- Dallas is 3-1 ATS and 1-0 ATS at home
- Tampa Bay is an NFL-worst 0-4 ATS
- Dallas is an NFL-best 4-0 to the Over
- Tampa Bay is 2-2 ATS and 0-1 ATS on the road
- Since 2024, Dallas is 8-10 ATS as the home team and 3-4 ATS as a home favorite
- Since 2024, Tampa Bay is 9-9 ATS on the road and 6-5 ATS as a road underdog
- Tampa Bay is an NFL-worst 2-10 ATS following a loss since the start of last year
- Dallas is 3-5 ATS following a win since the start of last season
- Dallas is 4-1 ATS in the last five as a home favorite and 3-2 on the ML
Quarterback matchup for Buccaneers at Cowboys
· Dallas: Dak Prescott – After throwing an interception in the season opener, Dak Prescott has six touchdowns and zero turnovers. Prescott is coming off a season-high 335 yards against Houston as he completed 32 out of 45 passes (71.1%). Prescott and the Cowboys lead the league in points per drive (3.39) and are second in points per game (30.5). On the year, Prescott ranks seventh in clean pocket completion percentage (75.6%) compared to 14th when being blitzed (67.5%). Tampa Bay ranks 31st in blitz rate and pressure rate, so Prescott should have time to work Thursday night.
· Tampa Bay: Jalon Daniels – In Jalon Daniels first career start, he threw two interceptions, one touchdown, and 148 yards on 19-of-27 (70.4%). Daniels longest completion was 21 yards as he rarely stretched the field. He was sacked three times and added 55 rushing yards on eight carries. After making his first start on Sunday, he has a very short turnaround to prepare for his second, plus Tampa is on the road. The Cowboys defense has allowed the second-most plays of 20-plus yards so far. There’s a chance Daniels has a better outing if he takes more chances.
Buccaneers at Cowboys Injury Update
- Dallas LB Demarion Overshown (hamstring) is doubtful
- Dallas OT Drew Shelton (hamstring) is doubtful
- Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out
- Tampa Bay WR Jalen McMillan (knee) is on IR
- Tampa Bay FS Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib fracture) is out
- Tampa Bay CB Benjamin Morrison (quad) is out
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