Carnell Tate, Isaac TeSlaa headline Week 5's Regression Files

Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.

Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.

Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.

In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.

Total Team Air Yards

Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through two weeks of the regular season.

Detroit Lions

Our Analytics King Dan Campbell continues to pour on the air yards for us, his grateful fantasy football children. In Week 4’s loss to the Panthers, Detroit led the league with 471 total air yards. The Lions now rank ninth in pass rate over expected, going over their expected pass rate in three of four games.

That’s probably going to maintain enough pass and air yards volume to support two or three pass catchers every week. Amon-Ra St. Brown will almost always be one. Guys like Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, and even Sam LaPorta can also get there with so many air yards up for grabs.

TeSlaa, a Regression Files regular, ran 83 percent of the team’s routes and took in 118 air yards against the Panthers on Sunday night. That was a 25 percent share. He now has a 23 percent air yards share over the team’s past three games. That makes him intriguing in most formats.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steel City’s air yards machine continued to go brrrr in Week 4 against the Browns. Maybe you didn’t hear the machine grinding away over the anguished screams of Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy.

The Steelers last week had the sixth most air yards and rank as the fifth most pass-heavy team in the NFL through Week 4. Though Roman Wilson only ran a route on 37 percent of the team’s drop backs against the Browns, he accounted for 33 percent of the air yards, trailing only DK Metcalf, who has the fourth most air yards in the NFL (461) this season.

That 60 percent of Pittsburgh’s total team air yards have been inaccurate prayer yards means Metcalf and Wilson and other Steelers wideouts will struggle with efficiency in ways that might make you take a long walk in the woods on a Sunday night. But the air yards are coming in bunches; Metcalf and Wilson are going to benefit.

Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor is finally doing that thing where you let your good QB throw the ball a lot. The Bengals, with the highest pass rate over expected in the league, have been 13 percent and 14 percent above their expected pass rate over their past two games, respectively. Only the Rams, Texans, and Steelers have more total team air yards over that (short) span.

With Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) out on Sunday, Tee Higgins became the air yards destroyer of worlds, leading the NFL with 213 air yards (49 percent share). Mitchell Tinsley was second on the team with a 22 percent air yards share.

Dohnte Myers of CFL fame ran 91 percent of the Bengals’ routes with Chase sidelined and saw 12 percent of the air yards and 19 percent of the targets on his way to 82 yards on seven grabs. Myers and Mike Gesicki would likely operate as the short and intermediate targets for Burrow if both Higgins (groin) and Chase are sidelined in Week 5. Tinsley would be the downfield guy, if last week’s usage holds.

The Bengals in Week 5 go against the Dolphins, who have allowed the second fewest air yards in 2026. Miami’s defense does, however, profile as a pass funnel.

Here are NFL offenses with the fewest air yards through Week 4.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans over the past two weeks rank a respectable 19th in total team air yards. They’re running a slightly faster pace on offense and creating more plays and drop backs and the pass attempts that come along with all that.

This development — if it holds — makes Carnell Tate an interesting case study in how important air yards might actually be in fantasy football. Tate quietly ranks 12th in the entire league in air yards. Over his past two games he’s taken in 53 percent of the Titans’ air yards while seeing a target on 33 percent of his routes and leading the team by a wide margin with a 37 percent first-read target share. This is the kind of pass game domination us nerds can’t ignore. We can, I suppose, but we shouldn’t.

In Week 5 Tate gets a Houston defense allowing the ninth most air yards per game this season. And here’s a little preview of this week’s WR/TE Matchups column: Only six teams have allowed a higher target rate to boundary wideouts than the Texans. That’s good for Tate, who’s running 74 percent of his routes from out wide.

New York Jets

It’s not that the Jets are ultra run heavy. They’re not. They rank 13th in pass rate over expected and 22nd in early-down neutral pass rate.

The problem for our purposes in Week 4 was that the Jets never had the damn ball. Against the Bears, New York’s time of possession was a miserably low 17 minutes. They logged 31 offensive snaps against Chicago and completed eight passes. Jets pass catchers combined for 94 total air yards.

A low-volume offense is never going to produce the air yards necessary to create two or three fantasy-viable pass catchers. There is some hope that Week 4 was a blip for the Jets. Headed into Week 4 the Jets were ninth in offensive snaps per game. Hopefully they can get back to that sort of play volume in Week 5 and beyond.

Chicago’s defense has been disastrous for the fantasy prospects of opposing players, not because they’re especially suffocating but because they go on long drives and operate at a terribly slow pace. Bears opponents are averaging a league-low 48 offensive plays per game. It’s something for which you might want to account in lineup decisions. Chicago’s next three opponents: Packers, Falcons, Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Florida Man Liam Coen has designed an offense that gives us almost nothing for fantasy purposes. Thank you, Liam. May I have more, Liam?

The Jags this season have the fifth lowest pass rate over expected -- in line with the Vikings and Titans -- and rank 15th in early-down pass rate. Jacksonville ranks in the bottom ten in total team air yards after tallying just 160 air yards in Week 4 against the Bengals, the sixth lowest mark in the league on the week. No team has fewer total team air yards than the Jaguars over the past two weeks.

What does that mean for you? Well, it likely means Parker Washington is not going to be as reliable as we thought he’d be. It means Brian Thomas, who had a grand total of 25 air yards on Sunday, will be entirely touchdown reliant. It means the offense probably can’t support more than one fantasy-viable outing at a time.

It is going to be a bleak situation if the Jaguars can play like this all season. And with the team’s defense giving up the league’s seventh lowest EPA per play, they might be able to pull it off.

Indianapolis Colts

Our Josh Downs air yards hallucination from Week 3 met a harsh reality in Week 4 in the Colts’ matchup against the pass-funnel Washington defense. Downs, after racking up 168 air yards in Week 3 with Alec Pierce sidelined, had precisely one air yards on three targets against the Commanders. So it goes, I suppose.

The Colts went somewhat run heavy against the Commanders and had 137 total air yards, the fourth lowest mark of the week. Laquon Treadwell led the team with a 31 percent air yards share. Tyler Warren had 19 air yards on six targets and now averages 2.4 air yards per target.

In Week 5 the Colts take on a Steelers defense allowing the eighth fewest total air yards per game and the third fewest offensive snaps. It’s an ugly spot for Downs and the rest of Daniel Jones’ unfortunate pass catchers.

Atlanta Falcons

The Michael Penix Machine is putting up a lot of points lately — 80 over the past two weeks, according to my spreadsheets — but the air yards situation remains rather bleak for Falcons pass catchers.

With Penix under center over the past couple games, the Falcons are 13 percent below their expected pass rate and 25th in early-down pass rate. They are establishing the run hard enough to create a wormhole back to a time before the forward pass. As a fan of high-scoring games, I’m scared, frankly. How am I supposed to talk to my kids about this?

Anyway, just know that there are barely enough air yards right now in the Falcons offense to make Drake London a legit fantasy starter. There certainly aren’t enough to support Kyle Pitts, who has been targeted on 21 percent of his pass routes in Penix’s two 2026 starts. That’s not an awful rate but it’s not nearly high enough when we’re talking about precious few pass attempts and air yards.

Prayer Yards Warrior (players who could see positive regression)

Chris Bell (MIA)

Prayer Yards Rate: 78 percent

It’s not all that often that I use an expletive when scrolling through air yards data. But that’s what happened when I came across Bell’s prayer yards rate through Week 4. Seventy-eight percent of the young man’s air yards have been deemed inaccurate. I’d like to apologize to my dog, who heard me curse.

This, I guess, should come as little surprise considering Malik Willis is 9 percent below his expected completion rate this season. Jameis Winston is the only QB with a lower CPOE. Miami’s offense leads the league with a 61 percent prayer yards rate. For context, the Dallas offense has a 35 percent prayer yards rate. The Bears are at 32 percent.

Only five players have more unconverted air yards than Bell, who over the past two games has run a route on 71 percent of the Dolphins’ drop backs and leads the team in air yards. He’s an ultra high-variance fantasy option but could be interesting in deeper formats. Malik Washington — a Regression Files bro from way back — is also somewhat interesting if you need a flex play. Over the past two weeks he’s seen 32 percent of Miami’s first read targets and ranks a narrow second in air yards behind Bell. Washington, by the way, is one of the five players with more unconverted air yards than Bell. So it goes.

Negative game script against the superior Bengals in Week 5 should juice pass (and air yard) volume for both Bell and Washington. Hopefully Willis can throw a few accurate balls.

Courtland Sutton (DEN)

Prayer Yards Rate: 73 percent

That Bo Nix has been abominable this season goes without saying (this was also terribly predictable if you paid even fleeting attention to the spreadsheets in 2025). Nix is the fifth most inaccurate passer in the NFL through four games. He ranks 29th in adjusted yards per attempt.

Another injury to Pat Bryant in Week 4 could mean an increased role for Courtland Sutton in this very sad Davis Webb offense. Sutton for some reason leads the Broncos in pass routes this year and has 233 air yards, just short of Jaylen Waddle’s team-leading 263 air yards. Sutton has 17 first read targets through four games while Waddle has 20. It’s a 1A/1B situation, even if it shouldn’t be.

The big air yards difference between Waddle and Sutton is that Waddle has a 48 percent prayer yards rate while Sutton’s prayer yards rate is among the highest in the NFL. If or when those Nix throws start turning into real yards, Sutton could have some real value in 12-team leagues. Maybe Davis Webb will look slightly less miserable on the sideline.

George Pickens (DAL)

Prayer Yards Rate: 44 percent

There’s nothing Pickens drafters love more than to watch CeeDee Lamb see 21 targets in a single game, like he did last Sunday against Houston. Pickens, meanwhile, finished with a 7 percent target share and a 25 percent air yards share.

Through four games Pickens has seen a 44 percent prayer yards rate while Lamb has a 26 percent prayer yards rate. That has something to do with the kind of targets Pickens sees -- downfield -- but it’s also a product of Dak Prescott being unusually inaccurate when throwing to Pickens. When that straightens out, Pickens drafters will be less sad on Sunday afternoons.

Treylon Burks (WAS)

Prayer Yards Rate 65 percent

Though he only has six targets on the season, Burks looks an awful lot like a positive regression candidate even after catching a 47-yard score in Week 4 against the Colts.

An extended Terry McLaurin (hamstring) absence would make Burks — who had a 62 percent route rate in Week 4 — the designated air yards eater in the Washington offense. Burks, averaging 25 air yards per target so far this year, would be a risky upside swing if McLaurin remains sidelined this week.

Josh Palmer (BUF)

Prayer Yards Rate: 70 percent

Palmer would only be usable in fantasy if DJ Moore is out with his lingering shoulder injury. Palmer is a lifelong prayer yards warrior who last week had 105 air yards and three actual yards. All four of his looks from Josh Allen were deemed catchable. Palmer is now 88 air yards over expected this season. That’s a lot.

Nevertheless, Josh Palmer persists.

Bullseye Enjoyers (Players who could be due for negative regression)

Dalton Kincaid (BUF)

Bullseye rate: 72 percent

As a guy who drafted Kincaid in a lot of redraft leagues this summer and felt pretty dang smart in the aftermath, I take exceedingly little pleasure in saying Kincaid is somehow running hot on air yards conversion through Week 4.

The problem, as you know, is a sudden lack of opportunity. Kincaid, after leading all tight ends in air yards through two weeks, has a total of 55 air yards over Buffalo’s past two outings. That ranks 21st among tight ends, behind luminaries such as Michael Mayer and Greg Dulcich.

Bills head coach Joe Brady said after the team’s Week 4 loss to the Patriots that he needed to do what it took to get Kincaid more involved in the Bills passing offense. Hopefully that leads to more forced targets (and air yards) for Kincaid. Just know he could be due for some negative regression based on his obscene air yards conversion rate and the unusually high rate of accurate throws that have come his way.

Tre Tucker (LV)

Bullseye Rate: 60 percent

Sixty percent isn’t all that high of a rate unless you’re talking about a strictly downfield dude like Tucker, who has averaged almost 16 air yards per target over four games. Kirk Cousins has been deadly accurate when targeting Tucker. That suggests Tucker’s hot streak is fueled by an unreliable trend (Cousins’ pinpoint deep ball accuracy).

Tucker, who ranks 17th in air yards through Week 4, should be treated as a desperation flex in Week 5 against the Patriots.