The Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday, November 9, in a matchup of 6-1 teams. Buffalo is coming off a 36-10 win over Baltimore, and Minnesota, which was the league's last undefeated team, lost to Detroit last week. Kickoff at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.

The game pits the NFL's top scoring offense against its top scoring defense. Josh Allen's Bills average 33.3 points per game, while the Vikings allow just 13.3. Kyler Murray's hamstring adds uncertainty at quarterback for Minnesota.

Bills vs. Vikings Odds

Bills: -3.5

Vikings: +3.5

Over: 45.5

Under: 45.5

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Bills vs. Vikings Key Injuries

Minnesota's biggest concern is Murray, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Coach Kevin O'Connell said the quarterback was still being evaluated early in the week. If Murray cannot play, Carson Wentz is the next option.

Left tackle Christian Darrisaw (shoulder) and safety Theo Jackson (quadriceps) are also questionable. Darrisaw's status matters most if Murray plays through the hamstring, since he would need protection. Guard Donovan Jackson is on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Buffalo has several questionable players. Receivers DJ Moore (knee) and Joshua Palmer (hamstring) and right tackle Spencer Brown (back) are on the list, as are defensive tackle Greg Gaines (calf) and cornerback Dee Alford (ankle). Cornerback Jordan Hancock is on injured reserve. The Bills also released safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Those early-week listings are not substitutes for final game designations.

Bills Betting Trends

Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread this season, and the over has hit in five of its seven games. The Bills won a 37-34 shootout at Monday night's Week 5 game on the road, a result that helps explain the market's confidence.

Allen is the main reason. He averages 356.1 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns, and he has added 270 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. He enters Week 9 as the significant MVP favorite, and James Cook gives the offense a strong ground complement.

The defense is the weakness. Buffalo ranks 27th in opponent EPA per play, a measure of how much value opponents create on each snap. It has also turned the ball over 11 times, which gives Minnesota a possible route to extra possessions.

Vikings Betting Trends

Minnesota is 4-3 against the spread, and the under has hit in six of its seven games. The Vikings are 3-2 against the spread in the last five meetings between the two teams. The 45.5 total is down from a 48.5 opener, which suggests the market expects a slower game.

The defense is the foundation. Minnesota leads the NFL in fewest points allowed per game (13.3), sack percentage (10.96%) and quarterback pressure rate (45.8%). It is also second in yards allowed at 271.6 per game and also the best run defense Buffalo has faced, which matters for a Bills offense that leans on Cook.

The offense is the concern. Minnesota ranks 30th in EPA per play, and Murray has not had the start the Vikings hoped for. Detroit's rushing success last week also exposed the defense, so Minnesota is not without flaws.

Keys to the Matchup

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Minnesota must force Allen into mistakes. Buffalo's turnover rate leaves room for a defense that creates pressure and takeaways. If the Vikings can win on early downs, they can make Allen work for every point.

Buffalo needs to avoid long scoring droughts. The Bills have the more explosive offense, but Minnesota's pressure rate could disrupt timing if Spencer Brown is limited. Quick throws, Cook and Allen's scrambling are the best answers.

Murray's availability could move the line. A healthy Murray gives Minnesota a mobile quarterback who can punish blitzes. Wentz would likely lean on the defense and field position, and the Bills would be even more comfortable laying the points.

Bills vs. Vikings Prediction and Pick

Buffalo should score, and Allen's production makes the Bills the more likely winner. But the Vikings' defense and a total near 45 point to a game decided by one possession. Minnesota also has the better defense, and that tends to keep underdogs competitive.

Taking the points looks like the better value.

Prediction: Bills 24, Vikings 21