The San Diego Padres made quick work of the Chicago Cubs, but the next assignment comes with a much higher degree of difficulty. The Milwaukee Brewers await in the NLDS, with Games 1 and 2 in Milwaukee before the series shifts to Petco Park.

San Diego enters with an offense that looks capable of carrying this run well beyond the NL Division Series. Milwaukee brings an elite ace, a relentless lineup, and home-field advantage. The winner advances to face either the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers.

Something has to give between two teams with championship ambitions. Here are four bold predictions, counting down from four to one.

4. Padres knock out Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 before the sixth inning

For 98% of the starting pitching in the league, this wouldn't be a bold prediction. For Jacob Misiorowski, it is.

He has spent the 2026 season dominating the league in every way imaginable. The NL Cy Young favorite finished with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts, combining overpowering velocity with the ability to keep traffic off the bases.

San Diego has already experienced how difficult he can be. In his lone regular-season start against the Padres this season, Misiorowski threw seven innings, allowed four hits, and struck out 10. Gavin Sheets eventually delivered the winning three-run homer in the ninth, after Milwaukee’s ace had departed.

This time, the Padres will make their damage count earlier. For Game 1, the prediction is at least three runs against Misiorowski and a pitching change before he finishes the sixth inning, or a replacement before the sixth begins.

The Padres pressured Chicago’s starters immediately, scoring four runs against Matthew Boyd over four innings and chasing Kevin Gausman after 3⅓. Misiorowski is obviously a much tougher test, but San Diego’s hitters have earned some confidence heading into the series.

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski (32) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at American Family Field
Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

3. Brewers’ small ball disrupts the Padres’ defense

Milwaukee will create multiple pivotal scoring opportunities through a perfect bunt, stolen base, or aggressive baserunning that forces San Diego into a costly mistake. This is how they thrive.

The Brewers have the personnel to make that happen. Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, David Hamilton, and Jackson Chourio can pressure a defense with their speed, while Joey Ortiz adds another option if healthy and included on the roster.

That does not mean Milwaukee should take the bat out of Chourio’s hands whenever a runner reaches. The advantage comes from making the Padres defend several possibilities at once. A threatened steal can distract a pitcher, and a well-placed bunt can force an infielder to rush a throw.

San Diego’s pitchers must control the running game without losing their focus on the hitter. The defenders need to take the available out rather than chase a spectacular play that creates a bigger inning.

Milwaukee will find a way to exploit that tension. The Padres can win the series while still losing an important inning to the Brewers’ speed and execution.

2. Padres’ bats stay alive throughout the NLDS

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The Friars collected 21 hits in two games against the Cubs, and the prediction here is that its lineup produces 4+ runs each contest against elite pitching.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado give the Padres obvious headliners, but the offense looks dangerous because the production extends beyond them. Jackson Merrill, Ty France, Xander Bogaerts, and Sheets can turn a promising inning into a crooked number.

That depth matters against a pitching staff built to limit sustained rallies. Milwaukee can survive one superstar having a big night. It becomes harder when the hitters behind keep extending innings and bringing runners home.

Sheets also gives manager Craig Stammen a valuable decision to make against right-handed pitching. Whether he starts at designated hitter or waits for a pinch-hit opportunity, his return adds another potential game-changing swing. He showcased that in the Game 2 win on Wednesday night.

Petco Park will amplify that pressure when the series reaches San Diego. The Padres have already shown how quickly an early offensive breakthrough can energize the entire ballpark.

1. Padres win the series in four games

San Diego will split the first two games in Milwaukee, then win both games at Petco Park to reach its first NLCS since 2022.

The Padres won the regular-season matchup 4-2, giving them evidence they can beat this opponent. Milwaukee will challenge them more than Chicago did, but San Diego has the offensive depth and late-inning pitching to finish close games.

The key is bringing a tied series home. That would give the Padres an opportunity to advance without returning to Milwaukee for Game 5.

The Brewers will make them earn it. But with timely offense, a bullpen anchored by Mason Miller, and Petco Park behind them, the Padres will finish the job in four.