Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller prediction, odds, pick for UFC 324

UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett continues on the prelims with a bout between Adam Fugitt and Ty Miller in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fugitt-Miller prediction and pick.

Adam Fugitt (10-5) enters UFC 324 off a brutal first-round KO loss to Islam Dulatov last July, which snapped the momentum of his hard-fought split-decision win over Josh Quinlan in June 2024. The veteran looks to steady his UFC run as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ty Miller.​

Ty Miller (6-0, 1 NC) makes his UFC debut riding a dominant unanimous decision over Jimmy Drago on Contender Series after a blistering 45-second KO of Ryan Charlebois in LFA. The unbeaten 25-year-old looks to keep his momentum rolling as he comes into his fight this weekend against Adam Fugitt.

Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 324 odds: Adam Fugitt-Ty Miller odds

Adam Fugitt: +350

Ty Miller: -455

Over 1.5 rounds: -175

Under 1.5 rounds: +135

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Why Adam Fugitt will win

• Last Fight: (L) Islam Dulatov – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 8 (5 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Adam Fugitt’s experience and well-rounded skill set give him the edge over Ty Miller at UFC 324. Fugitt has already weathered proven UFC finishers like Michael Morales, Mike Malott, and Islam Dulatov, giving him a far deeper strength of schedule than Miller’s regional slate.​

On the mat, Fugitt’s grappling and top control can be a real problem for a debutant who prefers to sprawl-and-brawl and box at range. If he mixes his level changes behind his kicking game and forces Miller to fight off his back foot, Miller’s knockout power becomes harder to access over three rounds.​​

Fugitt is also comfortable in high-paced, back-and-forth fights, having gone three grueling rounds in his split-decision win over Josh Quinlan. That kind of Octagon seasoning matters when a 25-year-old prospect steps under the bright lights for the first time on a pay-per-view undercard.​

If Fugitt can avoid early defensive lapses and survive Miller’s initial surge, the matchup favors his durability, cardio, and ability to win minutes with clinch work and wrestling. Over time, that should allow him to pull away on the scorecards or find a late finish on the ground.​

Why Ty Miller will win

• Last Fight: (W) Jimmy Drago – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 2 (2 KO/TKO)

Ty Miller’s speed, power, and confidence as an undefeated prospect pose problems for the hittable Adam Fugitt. Coming off finishes and a Contender Series win, Miller carries momentum and knockout instincts tailor‑made to exploit Fugitt’s defensive lapses.

Fugitt has been hurt and finished by powerful punchers like Michael Morales, Mike Malott, and Islam Dulatov, showing a defensive ceiling at this level. Miller’s crisp boxing combinations, counters, and straight right hand fit perfectly against a southpaw who often backs up on a center line.

Miller brings takedown defense and scrambling, which can blunt Fugitt’s best path to victory. If he forces Fugitt to shoot from too far out, Miller will punish those entries with intercepting knees and uppercuts that change the fight’s trajectory.

Cardio-wise, Miller’s youth, athleticism, and ability to sustain a high pace over three rounds should help him outwork Fugitt in prolonged exchanges. The longer the bout stays standing, the more likely Miller is to find decisive damage and sway judges with clean power shots.

Miller’s explosiveness and finishing instincts give him multiple opportunities to end exchanges on his terms. Expect the undefeated prospect to secure a knockout or decision over a defensively vulnerable Fugitt on fight night.

Final Adam Fugitt-Ty Miller prediction & pick

Ty Miller secures his seventh professional win by defeating Adam Fugitt at UFC 324 this Saturday. The undefeated prospect’s blend of speed, power, and technical striking will prove too much for the veteran’s durability and supposed experience advantage inside the Octagon.

Miller’s crisp boxing and knockout instincts directly exploit Fugitt’s defensive vulnerabilities, which have been repeatedly exposed by elite finishers in recent UFC fights. When Fugitt attempts to close the distance and initiate grappling exchanges, Miller’s intercepting strikes and takedown defense will shut down those entries before they develop into sustained control positions.

The fight unfolds primarily on the feet, where Miller’s athletic advantage and combination punching create constant pressure that Fugitt simply cannot match over three rounds. Fugitt’s southpaw stance typically leaves him open to straight right hands, Miller’s money punch throughout his undefeated run on the regional circuit and Contender Series.

Midway through the second round, Miller finds his timing and begins landing clean power shots that accumulate visible damage on Fugitt’s deteriorating chin. Fugitt’s durability, already compromised from previous knockout losses to Morales, Malott, and Dulatov, cannot withstand the sustained assault from a younger, faster opponent with elite finishing instincts and superior fight IQ.

Final Adam Fugitt-Ty Miller Prediction & Pick: Ty Miller (-455), Over 1.5 Rounds (-175)

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