17 college football coaches on the hot seat if they don’t turn things around

Life on the hot seat is part of the job when you are a college football coach. With boosters and fans expecting results, even the coaches with bowl wins and national titles on their resume are not immune to the pressure of those expectations.

Ahead of the 2026 college football season, here are some coaches who might be feeling the heat. We have used something of a real estate theme, dividing these into four different tiers. Some coaches might want to be making immediate plans, others might want to start scrolling real estate apps, and a few might start thinking about that retirement house on the shore or up in the mountains.

Hire a realtor

The coaches in this tier begin the 2026 college football season firmly on the hot seat. They might want to start making plans for a move in the next few months, unless things on the field turn around in a hurry. But it pays to be prepared.

• Mike Norvell, Florida State
• Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
• Dave Aranda, Baylor
• Mike Locksley, Maryland
• Dell McGee, Georgia State

We start with Mike Norvell, who can likely thank his contract for the reason he begins the 2026 season entrenched at Florida State. After going 10-3 during the 2022 season, and 13-1 the following year where an injury to Jordan Travis was the only thing denying Florida State a spot in the College Football Playoff, Norvell and FSU limped to a 2-10 season in 2024, and a 5-7 record last year. That came after Florida State began the year with a win over Alabama, vaulting the Seminoles into the Top 25.

Also, they have not won a road game since beating Florida in Gainesville in November of 2023, and the Seminoles are just 3-13 in the ACC over the past two years.

The buyout remains a sticking point, but Norvell needs to right the ship. Fast.

As for the other names on this list, Fickell was given a boost from Wisconsin leadership this past offseason, as the school will increase investment in infrastructure, staff, and roster management. “We are willing to make an investment in infrastructure and staff,” said athletic director Chris McIntosh last November, when announcing Fickell would be back. “As important is our ability to retain and recruit players in a revenue share and NIL era.”

But with a 17-21 record at Wisconsin, Fickell will need to produce.

Down in Waco, Dave Aranda set the standard high with a 12-2 record and Big 12 title in just his second year at Baylor. But since then the Bears have struggled, and have endured losing seasons in three of the last four years. Baylor limped to a 5-7 record last year, and have not been ranked in the Top 25 since 2022.

Even worse? Aranda’s status as a defensive guru has come into question, as the Bears allowed 32.6 points per game last year, ranking 120th in FBS.

September Mike Locksley is one of the best coaches in college football.

It is what happens after that has Locksley on the hot seat.

For example, during 2023 Maryland started the year 5-0, winning all five games in September. That included a 31-9 win at Michigan State, and wins at home over Virginia and Indiana.

They lost their next four games.

Last year, Maryland again started hot, entering October with an unblemished 4-0 record that included a win at Wisconsin.

They finished 4-8.

He likely gets another year — a big step forward from true sophomore quarterback Malik Washington will help — and does well bringing talent to College Park, including from the DMV area. But the pressure is on.

Dell McGee was hired at Georgia State ahead of the 2024 season, but the results have not been pretty. After going 3-9 in 2024, the Panthers limped to a 1-11 record last year. During his tenure the past two seasons, Georgia State is just 1-15 in Sun Belt games.

Start looking at market comps

The coaches in this tier might not be under as much pressure as those in the previous tier, but it never hurts to do some legwork. Look around at comparable houses on the market, so you have an idea just in case …

• Shane Beamer, South Carolina
• Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee
• Bill O’Brien, Boston College
• Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

South Carolina began 2025 with some high expectations, largely beginning with quarterback LaNorris Sellers and built on a nine-win 2024. But as Sellers and the offense regressed, the Gamecocks limped to a 4-8 record, the worst of Beamer’s tenure.

Since being hired in 2024, Derek Mason has led the Blue Raiders to a 6-18 record, and a 4-12 mark in Conference USA play. And similar to Aranda, his reputation on the defensive side of the ball has taken a hit. MTSU allowed 30.9 points per game last year — ranking 114th in the nation and third-worst in the conference — and they gave up 256 passing yards per game, second-worst in CUSA.

As for Bill O’Brien, consider his case the “inverse Aranda/Mason.” Known for his prowess on the offensive side of the ball, Boston College averaged just 25.4 points per game last year — sixth-worst in the ACC — and the Eagles are coming off a 2-10 season.

Then there is Jeff Lebby. While Mississippi State did reach a bowl game a year ago, that came with only five wins, and the Bulldogs made it to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl after several teams opted out of games, and qualifying due to the team’s Academic Progress Rate. And while last year’s 5-8 record was a sign of progress on the field — after going 2-10 in 2024 — more progress is needed.

Spend some time scrolling Redfin

You know how we all unwind at night by doing some scrolling on our phones?

These coaches might want to scroll real estate apps like Redfin or Zillow. Just to see what is out there. It is not time to hire anyone, or even do some serious homework, but if things go fast in a hurry that could change.

• Lincoln Riley, USC
• Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan
• Dabo Swinney, Clemson
• Jeff Choate, Nevada
• Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
• Scotty Walden, UTEP

None of the coaches on this list are truly in danger … yet. But take Dabo Swinney for example. After winning the ACC Championship Game in 2024 and reaching the College Football Playoff two seasons ago, Clemson finished 7-6 last year, a step back to cap off a year that began with high expectations. That forced Swinney into the transfer portal more than ever before.

Then there is Lincoln Riley. Consider what longtime Los Angeles scribe Arash Markazi wrote in The Sporting Tribune after USC’s loss in the Alamo Bowl. “The truth is, Riley hasn’t been much different than his predecessors,” wrote Markazi. “After the Alamo Bowl loss, he has a 35-18 record through four seasons at USC.

“Lane Kiffin’s record through four USC seasons from 2010 to 2013 (including games coached by interim replacements after he was fired) was 35-17.”

He continued.

“Clay Helton’s record through five seasons from 2016 to 2020, during a tenure defined by hot-seat speculation and eventual dismissal, was 39-19.

“Riley reportedly signed a 10-year, $100 million contract in 2022 as the hottest name in college football. Since then, he has morphed into an overpriced version of Kiffin and Helton, proof that money can buy hype, but it can’t guarantee results.

“As one booster texted me Tuesday night, ‘There are cheaper ways to go 35-18 with far fewer headaches.’

“USC’s goal, of course, is not to go 35-18. But at some point, the Trojans have to look in the mirror and ask why Riley, Kiffin, [Steve] Sarkisian, and [Ed] Orgeron all reached the College Football Playoff before or after their time at USC, yet none could get there while coaching USC. 

“As USC enters 2026 following its Alamo Bowl collapse, Riley is on the hot seat for the first time since arriving in Los Angeles. His contract and looming buyout once shielded him from any real danger. But heading into his fifth season, those concerns are gone.

“If Riley doesn’t lead USC to the playoff next season, he will be gone. He has been given a longer rope than any USC coach since 2009. That rope will tighten quickly if the results don’t change.”

USC begins the year with a very favorable schedule, but a Halloween date looms as the Trojans welcome Ohio State to Los Angeles.

Start thinking about that retirement property

Thinking about retiring out west? Down in Florida? On the shore somewhere?

These coaches might want to start picturing what that looks like.

• Bill Belichick, UNC
• Kirk Ferentz, Iowa

Bill Belichick arrived in Chapel Hill to much fanfare, but the first year with North Carolina was a near-disaster.

Maybe he gets things turned around, and the arrival of Bobby Petrino should help stabilize the offense. But if this year mirrors last season’s 4-8 result, Belichick could be looking back to Nantucket.

As for Kirk Ferentz, the Iowa legend has been a mainstay on lists like this one given his 27 years in Iowa City. He’s talked about retirement more and more in recent years, and his contract is nearing its end.

“I really don’t think much about it [retirement],” Ferentz told On3 this past offseason. “Obviously, people bring it up. There’s no question, I have reminders that I am getting older. Constant reminders. People can make you aware of it at times. It’s interesting, I turned 70 last August. I’d never been 70, so I had no idea what that’d be. Felt pretty much like it did when I turned 69 or 60. It wasn’t a monumental event.”

He continued, “My health has been good. I’m not a health nut, but I try to take care of myself a little bit. I enjoy what I do, and I enjoy my family too, my grandkids. A lot of motivation to stay healthy, but part of that’s luck and faith. My wife is on board. She’s OK with me doing this, so that helps too, because she sacrificed a lot over close to 50 years.”