Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions and betting tips – Mourinho waiting in wings

Real Madrid’s disappointing season will come to an end this weekend, and everyone associated with the club is already focused on what comes next.

With Jose Mourinho set to return to the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, this will be Alvaro Arbeloa’s last game in charge. Can he lead Madrid to victory over Athletic Bilbao?

• Real Madrid/Real Madrid half-time/full-time – 5/4 with BoyleSports
• Under 3.5 goals – 8/13 with Tote
• Vinicius Junior to score any time – 5/4 with 247Bet

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao head to head overview

• Date: Saturday 23rd May.
• Kick-off: 8pm.
• Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain.
• Where to watch: TBC.
• Referee: TBC.
• VAR: Yes.
• Last meeting: 3rd December 2025; Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid.
• Last 10 matches: Real Madrid – 7 wins; Athletic Bilbao – 2 wins; Draws – 1.
• Favourite to win: Real Madrid.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predicted lineups

• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Huijsen, F. Garcia; Diaz, Bellingham, Tchouameni, Pitarch; Mbappe, Vinicius.
• Athletic Bilbao expected lineup: Simon; Gorosabel, Alvarez, Laporte, Lekue; Jauregizar, De Galarreta; I. Williams, Serrano, Berenguer; Guruzeta.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

Hands up who saw that one coming.

At the start of this season, the prospect of Jose Mourinho returning to Real Madrid within 12 months would have been unthinkable.

Madrid had only recently hired Xabi Alonso, a coach they hoped would be in the job for a number of years. 

Mourinho, meanwhile, was on the bench of Fenerbahce, his career at the highest level of the game having seemingly come to an end.

Not so. The Portuguese is on his way back to the biggest club in the world. It is not the reward you would usually expect for having led Benfica to a third-place finish in the Primeira Liga, but Florentino Perez believes Mourinho is the man to get Madrid back on track.

It is a gamble. Mourinho is not the manager he was in 2013, the final year of his first spell at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. He has not managed one of Europe’s elite clubs since leaving Manchester United eight years ago. His last league title came at Chelsea in 2014/15.

Yet after a dismal season for Madrid, Perez is turning to a man he already knows. He has done this before, of course, rehiring Zinedine Zidane and Carlo Ancelotti for second spells in the dugout. Mourinho is the next to return, tasked with shaking things up after a trophyless campaign.

A deal will not be formalised until after the game against Athletic Bilbao, but Mourinho’s name will be on everyone’s lips at the Bernabeu this weekend.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao betting tips

Real Madrid will conclude their La Liga campaign at home to Athletic Bilbao.

Madrid to sign off with win

Whichever way you look at it, this has been a very poor season for Real Madrid.

A failure to win silverware is never tolerated at the Bernabeu, where expectations are higher than at virtually any other club in the world. Madrid have fallen well short of their usual standards this term.

It is a faint silver lining, but the Blancos have at least avoided a full meltdown since the 2-0 loss to Barcelona in the Clasico, a result which confirmed their arch-rivals as champions.

Madrid have won back-to-back games since then and we expect them to make it three in a row this weekend. 

Athletic Bilbao rank 14th in La Liga’s first-half table, so they could be behind at the interval.

Back Real Madrid in the half-time/full-time market at 5/4 with BoyleSports

Not a goal-fest

There has been plenty of off-field drama surrounding Real Madrid of late, but their recent matches have been pretty low key.

Each of their last five games has featured under 2.5 goals, for instance, while only one of their last 10 has contained more than three strikes.

There have been only five goals in Athletic Bilbao’s last three outings, so their recent games have not been particularly eventful either.

Anyone seeking a high-scoring thriller on the final day of the La Liga weekend should probably look elsewhere.

Tip under 3.5 goals at 8/13 with Tote

Vinicius back to best

A penny for Vinicius Junior’s thoughts.

Earlier this season, the Brazil international accused Benfica winger Gianluca Prestianni of racially abusing him in a Champions League game. The Argentinian was later banned for six matches after being found guilty of homophobic conduct.

Mourinho defended his player after the incident and accused Vinicius of inciting the crowd by overcelebrating his goal. The Madrid man presumably did not take well to Mourinho’s intervention.

Vinicius’ relationship with his next manager is a question for another day. He has shone under Arbeloa, scoring 15 goals in his last 21 appearances. Vinicius can add at least one more strike to his tally before the curtain comes down on the campaign.

Go for Vinicius Junior to score any time at 6/5 with 247Bet

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao latest odds

Find the latest Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

More La Liga predictions

We have plenty more La Liga predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

Stay up to date with all the latest World Cup Winner Odds, World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds, World Cup Group Winner Odds and all the best World Cup Betting Offers and Free Bets in our dedicated betting hub

Important historical facts about Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao for betting

Only Atletico Madrid have opened the scoring more often than Real Madrid this term. Athletic Bilbao are in danger of finishing in the bottom half of La Liga for the first time in five seasons.

Real Madrid have won exactly 100 games against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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