Qarabag vs Newcastle United predictions and betting tips – Magpies resume European campaign

Having missed out on a top-eight finish in the league phase, Newcastle United must go through the Champions League knockout play-offs to earn a place in the round of 16.

Qarabag are their opponents. Newcastle are favourites to advance from this two-legged tie, but what can we expect from the first match in Baku?

• Newcastle United to win and over 2.5 goals – evens with bet365
• Draw at half-time – 6/4 with bet365
• Anthony Gordon to score any time – 8/5 with bet365

Qarabag vs Newcastle United odds

Find the latest Qarabag vs Newcastle United betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Qarabag vs Newcastle United predictions

It would be an exaggeration to say that Newcastle United have nothing left to play for in the Premier League this season.

An eight-point deficit to the top five will surely prove too difficult to overturn with just 12 rounds of fixtures remaining. It would take a near-perfect end to the campaign for Eddie Howe’s team to qualify for the Champions League from the position they are in.

The Magpies are only six points shy of sixth spot, though, and although the Europa League is obviously a step down from the continental competition Newcastle are currently in, it is nevertheless important that the club is in Europe one way or another.

The Premier League is not a write-off, then, but Newcastle’s season will now be defined by how they fare in other tournaments.

On Saturday Eddie Howe’s team beat Aston Villa 3-1 in the FA Cup, making the most of their numerical advantage after Villa goalkeeper Enzo Bizot was shown a red card shortly before half-time.

Newcastle were a goal down at that point, but three second-half strikes saw them progress to the fifth round. Fresh from winning the EFL Cup last term, the Magpies would dearly love to go all the way in the FA Cup this time around.

They also have ambitions of going far in the Champions League. They could not quite manage a top-eight finish in the league phase, missing out after failing to beat Paris Saint-Germain on matchday eight.

Newcastle held their own at the Parc des Princes in a 1-1 draw, but earlier defeats by Barcelona and Marseille ultimately cost them.

Still, there were positives to take from their showings in the first part of the tournament and Newcastle will fancy their chances of overcoming Qarabag over two legs. Should they do so, they will face either Chelsea or Barcelona in the round of 16.

Not that Newcastle can afford to look too far ahead. Qarabag are by no means a European powerhouse, but they are potentially awkward opponents. They won three matches in the league phase, just one fewer than Newcastle, and held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw in Baku.

The Azerbaijan capital is almost a six-hour flight from Newcastle, so Qarabag will look to take advantage of any fatigue in the legs and minds of their opponents.

Qarabag vs Newcastle United betting tips

Will Newcastle United establish a first-leg lead in their Champions League play-off?

Newcastle to edge it

Newcastle must strike the right balance on Wednesday night. 

Winning the away leg would leave them in an excellent position to advance to the last 16.

At the same time, a draw would not be a disaster with the home game still to come. Newcastle will not want to take undue risks in Baku.

One might assume Qarabag will adopt a backs-to-the-wall strategy against Howe’s team, but that was not really the pattern of their league phase games.

There were 34 goals in their eight encounters, an average of 4.25 per game. We should see more strikes at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, where Newcastle are likely to edge out their hosts.

Newcastle United to win and over 2.5 goals at evens with bet365

Expect even first half

As mentioned above, there is no need for Newcastle United to go hell for leather in the early stages of this match.

Howe’s side will seek to play their way into the game, while Qarabag would probably be content  to go in at half-time with the score level.

There was nothing separating Qarabag and their opponents after 45 minutes in their last two home matches of the league phase.

Newcastle will hope to be ahead by the time the clock strikes 90, but they may have to settle for parity at the interval.

Draw at half-time at 6/4 with bet365

Gordon enjoying Europe

Anthony Gordon has had mixed success in the Premier League this season, but his record in Europe speaks for itself.

The England international has scored six goals and provided two assists in the Champions League. Only Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland have made the net bulge more often in Europe’s leading tournament.

Gordon thrives in open grass and there will be moments on Wednesday when he is afforded ample space to attack. 

Qarabag know they probably need to get something from the home leg, so they cannot just sit back and pack men behind the ball. That will be music to Gordon’s ears.

Anthony Gordon to score any time at 8/5 with bet365

Qarabag vs Newcastle United predicted lineups

• Qarabag expected lineup: Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran.
• Newcastle United expected lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes, Ramsey; Barnes, Wissa, Gordon.

Where to watch Qarabag vs Newcastle United

• Location: Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan.
• Date and time: Wednesday 18th February, 5.45pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 1.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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