NHL mock draft 2026: Instant projection after Maple Leafs win lottery
The Stanley Cup Playoffs roll on, but on Tuesday night the league conducted the 2026 NHL Draft lottery with the Toronto Maple Leafs winning the No. 1 pick, and the right to draft either Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg in a class with more parity at the top than originally expected.
McKenna was viewed as the grand prize for much of the 2025-26 season. The rangy left wing already has good height, great playmaking, and a knack for driving the pace from the wing — making him a low-risk top overall pick. At times he’s been compared to Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, though personally, I don’t think he has quite the same ceiling as either phenom. Still, he’s a franchise cornerstone player, and it will be interesting to see whether a team chooses to keep him at his natural LW, or tries to convert him into a center.
The choice at No. 1 will be between McKenna and Sweden’s Ivar Stenberg, who has been racing up the boards as scouts take a deeper look into his run in the SHL. It’s unusual for a true 18-year-old to have any modicum of success in a pro league, but Stenberg more than held his own with his hockey IQ, and a shot volume that routinely made him one of the biggest threats on the ice for Frölunda HC. That pro-readiness is appealing for a team looking for an immediate impact, and his polish could cause him to be the top overall pick.
We’ll take a deeper dive into this year’s class as the draft approaches, but for now here’s a rapid-fire mock draft involving the teams in the lottery for the 2026 NHL Draft.
Pick Team Player Position Current Team League 1 Toronto Maple Leafs Gavin McKenna LW Penn State NCAA 2 San Jose Sharks Ivar Stenberg LW/RW Frölunda HC SHL 3 Vancouver Canucks Keaton Verhoeff D North Dakota NCAA 4 Chicago Blackhawks Chase Reid D Soo Greyhounds OHL 5 New York Rangers Tynan Lawrence C Boston University NCAA 6 Calgary Flames Caleb Malhotra C Brantford Bulldogs OHL 7 Seattle Kraken Viggo Björck C/RW Djurgårdens IF SHL 8 Winnipeg Jets Ethan Belchetz LW Windsor Spitfires OHL 9 Florida Panthers Carson Carels D Prince George Cougars WHL 10 Nashville Predators Daxon Rudolph D Prince Albert Raiders WHL 11 St. Louis Blues Adam Novotny LW/RW Petersborough Petes OHL 12 New Jersey Devils Ryan Lin D Vancouver Giants WHL 13 New York Islanders Mathis Preston C Spokane Chiefs WHL 14 Columbus Blue Jackets Oliver Suvanto C Tappara Liiga 15 St. Louis Blues (from Detroit) Albert Smits D Jukurit Liiga 16 Washington Capitals Xavier Villeneuve D Blainville-Boisbriand Armada QMHL
As a reminder, these were the lottery odds for winning the first draw entering Tuesday night.
Vancouver Canucks — 18.5%
Chicago Blackhawks — 13.5%
New York Rangers — 11.5%
Calgary Flames — 9.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs (Top 5 protected to Bruins) — 8.5%
Seattle Kraken — 7.5%
Winnipeg Jets — 6.5%
Florida Panthers — 6.0%
San Jose Sharks — 5.0%
Nashville Predators — 3.5%
St. Louis Blues — 3.0%
New Jersey Devils — 2.5%
New York Islanders — 2.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets — 1.5%
St. Louis Blues (from Red Wings) — 0.5%
Washington Capitals — 0.5%
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