NFL Rookie of the Year 2026 predictions, including one 3rd round sleeper

The NFL Rookie of the Year awards are always a curious marker for success. In recent years we’ve had standout talent like Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons win the award and go on to dominate the NFL, but dig just a little deeper and there’s guys like Eddie Lacy and Marcus Peters who ended up being small blips on the radar when it came to their NFL career.

The common thread when it comes to winning Rookie of the Year in the NFL is landing on a team that requires you to play immediately, and at a position where there isn’t a lot of talent, meaning a rookie can shine. Today we’re diving into the offensive and defensive sides of the ball to look at the guys who start the 2026 season in the best position to make noise.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Carnell Tate, WR — Tennessee Titans

The stage is set for Carnell Tate to make noise with the Titans this season. Tennessee is going to be throwing the ball a lot to get back into games while Robert Saleh builds their defense over time, and when that happens rookie receivers in a shallow depth chart get a ton of opportunities. There’s also an impetus to call many plays that get Tate involved in the passing game with Cam Ward to develop their relationship as teammates.

It’s a similar situation to Tetairoa McMillan with the Panthers a year ago. Tate is in a position right now to stuff the stat sheet, and he’s my favorite to win the award this year.

Makai Lemon, WR — Philadelphia Eagles

Lemon is sitting at WR3 on the Eagles depth chart, which is the role he was drafted for. Working out of the slot in this offense will give him a lot of opportunities, and Philly brings the exposure needed to build a campaign. Lemon is also in a position where he could get a lot of targets from Jalen Hurts, and is in a rare situation among the rookie receivers where he’s landing on an elite offense.

There’s a chance he could become a key touchdown scorer this season, and I’m not entirely sure that being on an offense with DeVonta Smith will really hurt him.

Carson Beck, QB — Arizona Cardinals

Rounding out the top three is a quarterback, and not the one you’d expect. While Fernando Mendoza will absolutely get reps this season, I think he’ll start a little too late to really make a campaign. Instead I think that Carson Beck has the potential to be this year’s Tyler Shough, the second-day QB who starts earlier than expected and makes waves.

The Cardinals did take Jeremiyah Love early, but I think that offensive line isn’t good enough to let him shine — similar to Ashton Jeanty in 2025. Beck meanwhile has a chance to be integral in the passing offense as soon as the team pivots off Jacoby Brissett, which will happen.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Arvell Reese, LB — New York Giants

The Giants defense is utterly stacked, but I have a lot of faith in John Harbaugh moving Arvell Reese all over the line and using him in creative ways. Also, with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter rushing the passer there’s going to be free lanes for Reese to make plays as a linebacker, and his insticts in a Harbz defense makes for a really compelling package.

I believe Reese can become an impact player quickly, stuff the stat sheet, and put together a resume that is impossible to ignore.

Caleb Downs, S — Dallas Cowboys

Not only was Downs my favorite player in this draft class, but might be the best safety I’ve ever evaluated. Instincts and athletic ability coalesce to create a truly brilliant player who can work up around the line and bring some pass rush for the ‘Boys, or drop back and deliver big hits in the secondary.

I’m a sucker for anyone who can play multiple levels in the NFL and I think Downs will have a lot of opportunities to shine working out of the Nickel as a rookie.

Dillon Thieneman, S — Chicago Bears

The Bears LOVE to generate turnovers, and it’s here that Thieneman can make an impact as a rookie. He’s extremely good at defending the pass in the air, and this will come into play with a Bears secondary that’s really good at locking down the corners and pressuring passes inside.

When the dust settles he could get 4+ interceptions this season, a solid amount of tackles, and establish himself as a great safety for this Bears system.