NFL Free Agency: Predicting where top players on the open market sign

Oftentimes in NFL free agency, the very best players set to hit the open market are franchise tagged by their respective teams, meaning some of the best would-be available players don’t even really have the chance to join a new team. That trend is starting to change, though. Last year, only Trey Smith and Tee Higgins were tagged, which was the fewest number of players tagged in an offseason since 2006. So far in the 2026 offseason, Kyle Pitts and George Pickens are the only players who have had the franchise tag placed on them, and the deadline to place tags is 4 p.m. ET on March 3.

That means there may be even more top-level talent on the open market than normal, which is good for all 32 teams during an offseason in which everybody is expected to be aggressive. For starters, the NFL salary cap is increasing to $301.2 million, up $22 million from last year. Additionally, every team just saw the New England Patriots improve from back-to-back 4-13 records to a trip to Super Bowl 60 after being the biggest spenders in free agency.

Teams will believe that an aggressive free agency approach can result in a potential championship, which means some huge contracts are going to be handed out. So, where may the best free agents sign, and for how much?

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR

Prediction: Buffalo Bills for two years and $33 million

Josh Allen is a former MVP and one of the best players in the NFL. However, he has had to carry far too heavy a burden for the Buffalo Bills’ offense. The team fell short in the postseason yet again, and a poor receiving corps played a part in another failure. While Allen can put up big passing numbers, regardless of who he is throwing to, and he is arguably even more effective with his feet, there is no telling the heights he could reach with a bona fide superstar receiver in his ranks.

The Bills need to execute the wish of their fandom and bring in a Pro Bowl-level pass catcher. Mike Evans is coming off a down year, but he had previously surpassed the 1,000-yard threshold in 11 straight seasons. Evans is a big-bodied receiver who is a massive threat in the red zone and on deep passes.

Of course, regression and injuries will be a concern with Evans going forward, as the Texas A&M product was limited to eight games in what was his worst season to date this past year. Still, Evans seemingly has something left in the tank. Considering George Pickens was just franchise tagged, he is the top option on the open market for Buffalo to go out and get.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts, QB

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts for three years and $110 million

Rarely do starting-caliber quarterbacks find their way onto the open market. Daniel Jones is a rarity in that regard. Jones was looked at as a draft bust during his days with the New York Giants, but he broke onto the scene to prove he may be for real with the Indianapolis Colts.

Jones was leading the Colts to having the best offense in the NFL prior to tearing his Achilles tendon. Now, he is hitting the open market just after Sam Darnold, a 2025 free agent signee of the Seattle Seahawks, led his new team to a Super Bowl victory. Jones is in a weird place as a free agent, though.

While the quarterback shone once winning the Colts’ quarterback job, he could miss the start of next season because of his injury, if not all of it. He has also spent a lot more time as a disappointment than as a franchise signal caller. Plus, many teams either already have their guy at quarterback or will look to get a younger option than Jones through the NFL Draft.

Because of that, a return to the Colts makes more sense than leaving. Jones has proven production with the team. The question is, just what will retaining him cost? On the one hand, quarterbacks are always paid a pretty penny in the NFL, but the Achilles tear may result in Jones coming at a discounted rate. His next deal truly can be anywhere from a prove-it deal to top-tier elite money. Most likely, a contract similar to Darnold’s makes sense.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks, RB

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks for four years and $51 million

Kenneth Walker just won Super Bowl MVP honors. A departure from Seattle after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy just wouldn’t feel right. If Walker found a new home this offseason, he’d be just the fourth reigning MVP to join a new team in the succeeding free agent period.

The fact that Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in the postseason only increases the likelihood that Walker returns home, though. Walker is a patient running back who might of just been scratching the surface for what he can do when he ran for 135 yards just a few weeks ago in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are certainly going to lose some key players to the open market. All Super Bowl teams do, as their players are highly coveted for their winning ways, and Seattle has five of the top 50 impending free agents this year. Walker should be the top priority to bring back, and a four-year contract offer for $51 million should do the trick.

Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals, DE

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams for three years and $101 million

With Kyle Pitts and George Pickens already tied to the franchise tag, and Breece Hall perhaps next in line for that honor, Trey Hendrickson seems poised to be the top unrestricted free agent this offseason. Hendrickson underwent a contract holdout ahead of last season, which makes it unlikely he will return to the Cincinnati Bengals.

While he had a down year once making his way back onto the field, Hendrickson is only just over a year removed from leading the league with 17.5 sacks. He brought the quarterback down that many times in 2023, too. Hendrickson racked up these numbers despite opposing offenses focusing heavily on him due to a lack of help on Cincinnati’s front seven.

The edge rusher position is considered by many to be the most important position besides the quarterback. Therefore, Hendrickson is going to be coveted by a number of teams this offseason. Historically, Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead has been aggressive in pursuing big-name stars, and he should go after Hendrickson.

Because of all the star talent Snead has brought in, the Rams haven’t always had a lot of salary cap space. In fact, most of their blockbuster additions came via the trade market. The Rams have over $44 million in cap space to work with this offseason, though. Matthew Stafford is returning to the team after winning the NFL MVP award. The team needs to be going all in before Stafford’s inevitable retirement, and Hendrickson could help get the team to the next level. With Byron Young and Jared Verse already on the roster, Los Angeles’ sack attack would be a scary one.

Tyler Linderbaum, Baltimore Ravens, C

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens for four years and $72 million

The Baltimore Ravens have a complex offensive system. They utilize an RPO attack that features arguably the best rushing quarterback ever, two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The team also has Derrick Henry at running back, a former 2,000-yard rusher who carries the ball with power and ferocity.

Having such a unique offensive attack requires high-level blocking. Tyler Linderbaum has become one of the best centers in the NFL with the Ravens, so the team needs to make sure they bring him back. Linderbaum is well-balanced as a blocker. He thrives in both run and pass blocking because of his combination of speed, strength, balance, and football IQ.

While there will be other suitors, Linderbaum’s fit with the Ravens is crystal clear. A $72 million deal should be enough to bring him back.

Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers, QB

Prediction: Retirement

Aaron Rodgers is clearly a future Hall of Famer. He has four MVPs and a Super Bowl MVP to his name. Rodgers has also led the NFL in passer rating four times and passing touchdowns twice. His twilight years since leaving the Green Bay Packers have been a little rocky, though.

Rodgers’ first season with the New York Jets came to an abrupt stop just a few plays into his first game with the team. He then played one more year with the Jets, and while his numbers were solid for a 41-year-old, his team only won five games.

Rodgers most recently played for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his first year there, Rodgers led the team to yet another postseason appearance. Although he didn’t throw for great yardage, his 24 passing touchdowns were an admirable mark, considering the Steelers’ receiving corps was subpar.

While doing what Rodgers is doing at this age is impressive, it is also clear that the quarterback has lost a step. At some point, the Steelers are going to get tired of employing bridge quarterbacks. They also likely won’t have the draft capital to select one of the top prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Because of that, reports have suggested the Steelers are interested in bringing Rodgers back. The 21-year veteran is still deciding between one last dance and retirement, though. This is something football fans have seen before, and it is really hard to ponder just what Rodgers will decide to do. At some point, even the greatest need to hang up their cleats, though, and now seems like the perfect time for Rodgers to do so. Without Rodgers or access to one of the top draft prospects at the quarterback position, expect the Steelers to make a trade or look elsewhere in free agency. Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa are trade candidates, and the next player on this list makes some sense as a free agent target.

Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers, QB

Prediction: Miami Dolphins for three years and $40 million

While Malik Willis would be a suitable Rodgers replacement, he might be better suited to play for the Miami Dolphins. The team seems ready to move on from Tagovailoa, and Willis would bring a whole new skill set. Tagovailoa came into Miami and started most of his rookie season because he was praised for impressive accuracy and a high football IQ.

Willis, meanwhile, was a raw prospect with all the physical tools, but he was never given the time to develop. When thrust into a starting role while Jordan Love was out this year, Willis showed that he has, in fact, developed over the years. Now his sky-high potential is once again worth gambling on.

Willis has a killer arm, something that would be appreciated in Miami because of Tagovailoa’s shortcomings in that regard. He is also an elite rushing quarterback, which is again something that the incumbent at quarterback lacks. A lot of teams may still view Willis as a backup. Others may see starter potential. The Dolphins are one team that should take the risk. At $40 million, Willis’ deal might end up looking like a steal down the road.

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