New England Patriots vs Houston Texans odds, predictions, and betting tips – old-school battle expected in Foxborough

The Houston Texans’ reward for eliminating one of the two six-time Super Bowl champions is a date with the other. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, won their first playoff game since the last of the Brady-Belichick championships. They meet in the Divisional Round this Sunday.

Both teams are now just two wins away from the big game. For the Texans, it would be a first-ever appearance. In fact, they are the only team in the NFL to have never made it beyond this stage, and into an AFC Championship Game. The Patriots, of course, have been numerous times but haven’t come close since their dynasty era ended.

These two were victors in the cagier, more chess-like games of Wild Card Weekend. The Texans went to Pittsburgh, held the Steelers to just two field goals, and scored two touchdowns on defence in what ended up being a 30-6 rout.

The Pats also kept their opponents out of their end zone, winning 16-3 over the toothless Los Angeles Chargers. Their defence sacked Justin Herbert six times and forced two fumbles, recovering one of them.

Patriots vs Texans best bets

• Over 36.5 rushing yards for Rhamondre Stevenson – 22/25 with BetMGM
• Over 3.5 receptions for Hunter Henry – 5/6 with Paddy Power
• Under 207.5 passing yards for C.J. Stroud – 5/6 with Sky Bet

It would be wrong to label these two as purely attritional, defensively-minded teams, however. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the second favourite for the MVP award, having recorded the best completion percentage among starting signal callers in what is just his second season. 

New England scored 490 points in the regular season – the most in the league. During a ten-game winning streak between weeks 4 and 15, five were won by multiple scores.

While C.J. Stroud and the Texans have been more explosive in previous campaigns, they ended the season on a nine-game unbeaten run of their own – which featured 30+ and 40+ point outings. 

Houston have also defied the odds to make it this far. They began the season 0-3 – only six teams in the history of the league have ever made the playoffs having started so poorly. DeMeco Ryans’ team went 12-2 the rest of the way, finishing just one win behind the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars.

Patriots vs Texans preview

Both teams are exceptionally well-coached and are greater than the sum of their parts – neither have star names at running back or wide receiver, except for Nico Collins for the Texans. It could, therefore, come down to the array of defensive talent on show to decide this game. 

The Texans were the only team to have two players with 12 or more sacks during the regular season – Will Anderson Jr recorded 12, veteran Danielle Hunter ranked third in the NFL with 15. The pair contributed two of the four against the Steelers too. The team also ranked joint-third for interceptions with 19. 

The Patriots didn’t score anywhere near as highly in either metric, but were solid in minimising big plays against – they gave up just 42 plays of 20 yards or more (only six teams allowed fewer) and they gave up just three 40+ yard plays (bettered only by the Bills). 

It’s going to be a challenging day for both quarterbacks.

Patriots vs Texans betting tips

Find the latest odds for the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

The Patriots are being given the slight edge to advance to the Championship Game, which they would host if the Buffalo Bills win on the road in Denver. If not, however, it would be Mike Vrabel’s team heading to Colorado. The same is true if Houston makes what would be, for them, uncharted territory. 

As we can see with the points over/under line, this could well be a game where 20 points or so are enough to get the job done. The Texans have given up more than 20 points just four times this season, and one of those was 21 points against the Las Vegas Raiders. We may be looking at a final score of 20-17 or 21-17 – something in that ballpark. 

On a night where many of the offensive playmakers may struggle, here are three props I’m backing.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s productive spell to continue

With the Texans’ ferocious two-headed edge rushing monster, the Patriots may opt to run the ball up the middle a lot. Of the relatively few impactful players missing or questionable for either team, the Texans’ defensive tackle position has been the hardest hit group.

They are without three of their main options there and may, therefore, struggle to maintain their excellent rushing defence standards. They gave up the fourth fewest yards on the ground and an average of just four yards-per-carry – which ranked joint third in the league. 

Meanwhile, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson saved his best four games – in terms of yards-per-carry – for the last four weeks of the season. He recorded 5.9 against the Jets, 6.4 against the Ravens, 8.3 against the Bills and an incredible 18.7 against the Dolphins. The latter performance saw him register 131 yards from just seven carries – two of these went for touchdowns (he also had a receiving score in that game).

It is worth noting that Stevenson is by no means the ‘bell cow’ in New England – they also like their rookie TreVeyon Henderson a lot. Against the Chargers a week ago, they were fed almost equally. Stevenson was given ten carries to Henderson’s nine, and it was the fifth-year veteran who was the more productive – converting his runs into 53 yards, Henderson managed just 27. 

Stevenson’s over/under line, therefore, of 36.5 seems low to me. He’s managed that in each of his last six games – comfortably so in the last five.

Take the over of 36.5 on Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards against the Texans at 22/25 with BetMGM

Hunter Henry a dependable target for Drake Maye

When the Patriots pass the ball, they may not be able to hit many chunk plays. Only six teams allowed fewer passing yards, and fewer passing touchdowns, than the Texans this season. Drake Maye might have to ‘dink and dunk’ most of the time to his running backs and tight ends.

Speaking of tight ends, Hunter Henry – who’s in his ninth season in the league – has clearly enjoyed working with the former UNC quarterback. Henry’s two most productive seasons in terms of catches – and two of the top three in terms of targets – have come in 2024 and 2025 with Maye throwing him the ball.

He was the only touchdown scorer in the Patriots’ Wild Card win over the Chargers, and was the joint most-targeted pass catcher on the night – along with Stefon Diggs with five apiece. Against a particularly tough defence, I would expect him to be one of the go-to options again.

His line for receptions in this game has been set at 3.5, which he eclipsed nine times in the regular season – including in five of the last seven. I’m backing him to make at least four here.

Back Hunter Henry to make over 3.5 catches against the Texans at 5/6 with Paddy Power

C.J. Stroud faces tough assignment

While the regular season metrics might not quite back it up, if last week is anything to go by, C.J. Stroud should brace himself to take hits during this one. 

The Patriots actually ranked near the bottom of the league for sacks – only six teams recorded fewer than their total of 35. Against the Chargers, however, the rush got home six times and were in the backfield several other times. In fairness to LA, they were without their two starting offensive tackles.

Even though they haven’t had a track record for getting to the quarterback all that often, the Pats are still difficult to pass the ball on – suggesting they are still getting good pressure and/or their coverage play is excellent. They ranked in the top ten in passing yards allowed, passing yards per attempt and for number of 20+ yard passing plays allowed. They were also joint-second for only allowing three 40+ yard passes, as mentioned earlier.

It has also been a career-low year for C.J. Stroud in terms of passing yards, albeit he did miss three games. Still though, his yards per game average is down too – dipping to 217.2 this year compared to 219.2 last year and 273.9 in his rookie year. 

The Texans may find ways to win that don’t involve an explosive passing attack, but I would certainly favour the under on Stroud’s air yards here.

Tip C.J. Stroud to finish with under 207.5 passing yards against the Patriots at 5/6 with Sky Bet

Patriots vs Texans injury report

Here are all the notable outs and doubts ahead of this Divisional Round matchup:

New England Patriots

• Out: Antonio Gibson (running back) – knee, Mack Hollins (wide receiver) – abdomen, Joshua Farmer (defensive tackle) – hamstring
• Questionable: Christian Gonzalez (cornerback) – concussion, Khyiris Tonga (defensive tackle) – foot
• Doubtful: N/A

Houston Texans

• Out: Joe Mixon (running back) – foot/ankle, Tank Dell (wide receiver) – knee, Brevin Jordan (tight end) – knee, Mario Edwards Jr (defensive tackle) – pectoral, Jimmie Ward (safety) – foot, Folorunso Fatukasi (defensive tackle) – shoulder, Tim Settle Jr (defensive tackle) – foot
• Questionable: Nico Collins (wide receiver) – concussion, Justin Watson (wide receiver) concussion
• Doubtful: N/A

Patriots vs Texans game info

• Date: Sunday 18th January
• Time: 8:00pm GMT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Where to watch: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports NFL & Channel 5

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