NCAA baseball tournament 2026: Predictions for every regional, including some upsets

The men’s NCAA baseball tournament is about to get underway. This weekend 64 teams will battle it out in the regionals, 16 different double-elimination tournaments across the nation.

At stake? A spot in the super regionals for each of the winners.

We have already identified some sleepers in the field, so it is a perfect time to make some predictions. However, before we dive into those, let’s look at the Top 16 teams, as ranked by the selection committee:

No. 1 UCLA (51-6)
No. 2 Georgia Tech (48-9)
No. 3 Georgia (46-12)
No. 4 Auburn (38-19)
No. 5 North Carolina (45-11-1)
No. 6 Texas (40-13)
No. 7 Alabama (37-19)
No. 8 Florida (39-19)
No. 9 Southern Mississippi (44-15)
No. 10 Florida State (38-17)
No. 11 Oregon (40-16)
No. 12 Texas A&M (39-14)
No. 13 Nebraska (42-15)
No. 14 Mississippi State (40-17)
No. 15 Kansas (42-16)
No. 16 West Virginia (39-14)

The top eight seeds — UCLA, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Auburn, North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, and Florida — are guaranteed to host a super regional, provided they advance out of the regionals. Within each regional the teams are ranked No. 1 through No. 4.

Now let’s get to some predicitons.

Los Angeles regional

No. 1 UCLA (51-6) (No. 1 overall seed)
No. 2 Virginia Tech (30-24)
No. 3 Cal Poly (36-22)
No. 4 Saint Mary’s (34-25)

UCLA is the top overall seed in the men’s baseball tournament for several reasons. The Bruins went wire-to-wire as the top team in the nation, have a stout pitching staff (boasting the second-best team ERA in the nation), and the likely top pick in the upcoming MLB Draft in shortstop Roch Cholowsky. They won every series they played in this season, and were the only team in the nation to take two of three games in each weekend series.

Prediction: UCLA

Atlanta regional

No. 1 Georgia Tech (48-9) (No. 2 overall seed)
No. 2 Oklahoma (32-21)
No. 3 The Citadel (35-24)
No. 4 UIC (27-27-1)

The Yellow Jackets can absolutely mash. Georgia Tech put together one of the best seasons — if not the best season — in program history, and their offense is a huge reason why. Georgia Tech led the nation in batting average (.358), on-base percentage (.469), slugging percentage (.636), and runs per game (10.8). They’ll mash their way to hosting a super regional next week.

Prediction: Georgia Tech

Athens regional

No. 1 Georgia (46-12) (No. 3 overall seed)
No. 2 Boston College (36-21)
No. 3 Liberty (41-19)
No. 4 Long Island (30-20)

As we outlined on Wednesday, Liberty could make some noise in the Athens regional. The Flames finished with more than 40 wins for just the seventh time in program history, have three arms in the rotation that could fluster opposing lineups, and were tested on the road this year, going 19-6 away from home.

Still, this is a Georgia team that is coming off its first SEC Tournament title, won 31 games at home — where they will be this weekend — and was second in the nation in slugging percentage.

Prediction: Georgia

Auburn regional

No. 1 Auburn (38-19) (No. 4 overall seed)
No. 2 UCF (31-21)
No. 3 NC State (32-22)
No. 4 Milwaukee (25-31)

Auburn might have the best pitching in the entire field. Not only do the Tigers have the fourth-best ERA in the nation, but Auburn also brings to the tournament a staff that, as noted by Baseball America, “is fifth in xFIP [Expected Fielding Independent Pitching], sixth in FIP [Fielding Independent Pitching], and first in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Tigers’ top six pitchers in IP all had ERAs between 2.00 and 3.30, led by the starting rotation of Jake Marciano, Alex Petrovic and Abe Alvarez.”

They did that against the toughest schedule in all of college baseball.

Prediction: Auburn

Chapel Hill regional

No. 1 North Carolina (45-11-1) (No. 5 overall seed)
No. 2 Tennessee (38-20)
No. 3 East Carolina (36-22-1)
No. 4 VCU (37-23)

It is very tempting to pick Tennessee here. At their best, the Volunteers have looked like one of the best teams in all of college baseball this season. If the team that swept Mississippi State in Starkville shows up, watch out.

Still, North Carolina is hard to ignore. The Tar Heels won 45 games, finished fourth in RPI, played the 13th-toughest schedule in all of college baseball, and posted the eighth-best ERA in the nation despite their schedule. Tennessee vs. North Carolina feels like it could be a super regional, but we give the edge to North Carolina here.

Prediction: North Carolina

Austin regional

No. 1 Texas (40-13) (No. 6 overall seed)
No. 2 UC Santa Barbara (38-18)
No. 3 Tarleton State (37-19)
No. 4 Holy Cross (25-28)

Texas finished fifth in RPI, and played the ninth-toughest schedule in college baseball. With Dylan Volantis, Ruger Riojas, and Sam Cozart, they have the starting pitching to pose a problem in both the double-elimination and the upcoming super regionals. UC Santa Barbara is a scary No. 2 seed, and the Gauchos can hand the ball to Jackson Flora, who leads the nation with a miniscule 1.05 ERA. But Texas’ pitching depth should get them through to the next round.

Prediction: Texas

Tuscaloosa regional

No. 1 Alabama (37-19) (No. 7 overall seed)
No. 2 Oklahoma State (37-20)
No. 3 USC Upstate (33-28)
No. 4 Alabama State (34-21)

This is a very fun regional, with four teams that you could honestly make a case for when it comes to predictions like these.

We’re landing on the Cowboys here, for good reason. Like some other teams in the field, Oklahoma State can absolutely mash. They rank second in the nation in home runs per game (2.40), fifth in the nation in slugging percentage (.562), and average 8.5 runs per game. Six players on their roster — Kollin Ritchie, Aidan Meola, Colin Brueggemann, Alex Conover, Garrett Shull, and Brock Thompson — finished the year with double-digit home runs.

And if you start thinking about a matchup with Alabama, the Crimson Tide went 1-11 this year when their opponent scored eight runs or more.

Prediction: Oklahoma State

Gainesville regional

No. 1 Florida (39-19) (No. 8 overall seed)
No. 2 Miami (38-18)
No. 3 Troy (32-29)
No. 4 Rider (33-18)

When the Field of 64 was announced, many raised an eyebrow at Troy, as the Trojans made it into the tournament as an at-large team despite losing 29 games, the most of any at-large team in the super regional era.

But the Trojans did that against the eighth-toughest schedule in the nation, which is why they are worth watching this weekend.

Still, the Gators have some electric arms, including SEC Pitcher of the Year Aidan King. This is a Florida team that swept Miami on the road this year, and finished 11th in RPI.

Oh, and the Gators faced the second-toughest schedule in the nation.

Prediction: Florida

Hattiesburg regional

No. 1 Southern Miss (44-15) (No. 9 overall seed)
No. 2 Virginia (36-21)
No. 3 Jacksonville State (46-13)
No. 4 Little Rock (36-26)

Jacksonville State finished 25th in RPI this season, which had them potentially in line for a No. 2 seed.

Instead, they found themselves on the No. 3 line. Still we think they could make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and not just this weekend. The Jaguars, who won Conference USA, have the pitching to go far in this tournament. They enter regionals with the eighth-best team ERA in the nation, and a staff that allowed just 7.12 hits per nine innings this year, third-best in the nation. They have three top-tier starters in Steven Cash, Beau Bryans, and Eli Pillsbury, each with an opponent’s batting average below .231. They have some great arms out of the pen, including Skyler Hutto, Maddux McDougall, and Chase Horst. Horst posted an ERA of just 0.73 over 24 innings of work, while Hutto recorded a team-best 12 saves while holding opposing batters to a batting average of just .157.

This is also a team that beat Auburn twice this season, including a run-rule, 15-4 win back in April.

We like Jacksonville State’s chances this weekend.

Prediction: Jacksonville State

Tallahassee regional

No. 1 Florida State (38-17) (No. 10 overall seed)
No. 2 Coastal Carolina (37-21)
No. 3 Northern Illinois (35-17)
No. 4 St. John’s (33-24)

When first baseman Myles Bailey went down with a season-ending ankle injury at the start of April, it left a big hole in the Seminoles’ lineup, and many wondering if FSU would be hosting a regional come tournament time. But to their credit, Florida State is doing just that after finishing 38-17, against the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation.

But Coastal Carolina — and ace starting pitcher Cameron Flukey — are looming. The Chanticleers made it to Omaha, and eventually the championship series, a year ago. Several members of that team are back, including Flukey, who is working his way back from a rib injury suffered earlier in the year. Whether Florida State sees him, however, remains to be seen.

Given that Florida State might avoid Flukey on Friday, we like their chances to move on.

Prediction: Florida State

Eugene regional

No. 1 Oregon (40-16) (No. 11 overall seed)
No. 2 Oregon State (43-12)
No. 3 Washington State (30-26)
No. 4 Yale (30-13-1)

The selection committee knew exactly what they were doing with this regional.

Not only do we see a reunion of three former Pac-12 teams, but we also get Oregon and Oregon State in the same group? This makes for tremendous content, such as this post from Andrew Hammond on BlueSky.

When it comes down to it, even though the Ducks were literally inches away from winning the Big Ten title against UCLA, and get to play at home, they might face some tough sledding this weekend. Oregon likely draws All-American pitcher Jack Ohman on Friday, who was a Golden Spikes semifinalist a year ago. While Ohman’s numbers dipped this year due to some mid-season struggles, he is a tough matchup should Oregon face him early. Factor in Oregon State’s staff — even without Dax Whitney — a group that led the nation in ERA, and this could be a Beavers bracket.

Prediction: Oregon State

College Station regional

No. 1 Texas A&M (39-14) (No. 12 overall seed)
No. 2 USC (43-15)
No. 3 Texas State (36-24)
No. 4 Lamar (34-25)

USC is a trendy pick for this regional, and with good reason. The Trojans finished the year ninth in RPI, and will likely hand the ball to Mason Edwards for their first game, who led the nation with a staggering 160 strikeouts over just 88 innings of work.

The problem? That means that Texas A&M — who were 14th in RPI despite playing the 17th-toughest schedule in the nation (USC’s schedule ranked 37th) — likely avoids Edwards out of the gate. And this is a Texas A&M lineup that will punish opposing pitchers, as they ranked fourth in the nation in slugging percentage (.567) and seventh in the nation in scoring, averaging nine runs per game.

Prediction: Texas A&M

Lincoln regional

No. 1 Nebraska (42-15) (No. 13 overall seed)
No. 2 Ole Miss (36-21)
No. 3 Arizona State (37-19)
No. 4 South Dakota State (24-31)

Nebraska finished the year with 42 wins, the tenth-best RPI in the nation, and were rewarded with hosting a regional.

With teams like Ole Miss and Arizona State that have visions of a deep run of their own.

Ole Miss has a great pitching staff, but what makes Arizona State so dangerous is their offense. It starts with Landon Hairston, who enters the NCAA tournament among baseball’s leaders in several offensive categories, including batting average (.413, fifth in the nation), hits (92, tied for fifth), on-base percentage (.518, tenth in the nation), home runs (28, tied for fourth in the nation), and slugging percentage (.897, best in the nation).

But this is a lineup that can hit from top-to-bottom, as the Sun Devils have the sixth-best batting average as a team in the nation, as well as the sixth-best slugging percentage as a team in the nation.

Don’t just take my word for it. In their rankings of all 64 teams in the tournament, Baseball America placed Arizona State at No. 14 overall.

The highest of any team in the Lincoln regional.

Prediction: Arizona State

Starkville regional

No. 1 Mississippi State (40-17) (No. 14 overall seed)
No. 2 Cincinnati (37-20)
No. 3 Louisiana (39-23)
No. 4 Lipscomb (29-24)

What likely saves Mississippi State in this regional, given the presence of two teams in Cincinnati and Louisiana that could pose some problems for them, is their schedule over the season. The Bulldogs faced the seventh-toughest schedule in the land this year, and while they finished 4-6 mark in ten SEC series this season, they also finished 13th in RPI and won 25 games at home.

Ace Reese powers a lineup that produced the tenth-best batting average in the nation, along with the eighth-best slugging percentage. Add in a rotation that features three bonafide starters in Tomas Valincius, Ryan McPherson and Duke Stone, and this is a team that should move on to the super regionals.

Prediction: Mississippi State

Lawrence regional

No. 1 Kansas (42-16) (No. 15 overall seed)
No. 2 Arkansas (39-20)
No. 3 Missouri State (34-19)
No. 4 Northeastern (38-20)

In the year before Dan Fitzgerald arrived, the 2022 season, Kansas baseball finished with a 20-35 record, and ninth in the Big 12 standings. In Fitzgerald’s first season in charge, the Jayhawks finished with a 25-32 record.

Last year, Kansas delivered their first winning season since 2021, ending the year 31-23 and in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014. Now? The Jayhawks are hosting a regional for the first time in program history.

However, the magic might end there. Arkansas secured a spot in the SEC Championship game, won 39 games against the tenth-toughest schedule in college baseball (Kansas’ schedule clocked in at 60th), and finished 21st in RPI, just two spots behind Kansas. Add in a Missouri State team that could have been on the No. 2 line, and the dark-horse (and speedy) Huskies, and this is a tough draw for Kansas.

We like Arkansas to advance out of this regional.

Prediction: Arkansas

Morgantown regional

No. 1 West Virginia (39-14) (No. 16 overall seed)
No. 2 Wake Forest (38-19)
No. 3 Kentucky (31-21)
No. 4 Binghamton (31-20)

The Mountaineers secured the final regional as the No. 16 overall seed, but West Virginia also received a rather favorable draw despite that ranking. Wake Forest has a pitching staff that will bring the gas — evidenced by their 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, best in the nation — but the Demon Deacons posted just a 7-13 record against teams in the field, and their offensive numbers are likely inflated due to a friendly home field. David F. Couch Ballpark is just 310 down the line in left and 300 down the line in right, along with some unique characteristics to the outfield wall itself. Then there is Kentucky, a team that lost eight of the ten SEC series they played this year.

As for West Virginia, they have solid arms both in the rotation (led by Maxx Yehl, Chansen Cole, and Dawson Montesa) and the bullpen where you will find Ian Korn, Carson Estridge, and Reese Bassinge. Gavin Kelly keys the offense, and is one of the best hitters in all of college baseball.

This might be the toughest regional to predict, but we like West Virginia coming out of their home park.

Prediction: West Virginia