Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia betting tips:

The WBC welterweight world title is on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night as Mario Barrios defends his belt against Ryan Garcia.

Barrios was last seen in July last year as he drew with veteran Manny Pacquiao, having also drawn in his previous bout with Abel Ramos where both fighters were knocked down.

Garcia is at a point in his career where he is looking to kick on having only officially fought three times since mid-2022.

He fought once in 2025 as he lost via unanimous decision to Rolando Romero in an upset defeat, while in 2024 what would have been a career-best win over Devin Haney was later ruled a no-contest.

The winner of Saturday’s title fight is expected to take on Britain’s Conor Benn next.

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Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia betting tips

• Ryan Garcia to win by decision or technical decision @ 5/2
• Ryan Garcia to be knocked down and win @ 10/1

Garcia may need the judges

Barrios won his WBC belt against Yordenis Ugas in 2023 and was initially the interim title holder before being upgraded before his bout with Ramos. Technically, he hasn’t won a fight as the full champion and there is a good chance he will lose his title this weekend.

A draw with an aging Pacquiao who had been out of the ring for four years in his last bout is hardly encouraging form for the champion ahead of an incredibly tough defence, and Garcia should be able to take this opportunity to end his wait for a world title.

The 27-year-old, who held an interim title himself at lightweight, underwhelmed against Romero in his last bout, but that took place in Times Square in front of a sparse crowd and Garcia appears to be the kind of fighter who thrives on the atmosphere of a big night.

In terms of skill and power, Garcia looks a level or two above Barrios and in front of a packed crowd in Vegas he has a chance to make a statement win.

However, King Ry may need the judges to get the win over the line despite boasting an impressive stoppage rate with 20 of his 24 wins coming inside the distance.

Barrios has a 29-2-2 record and only one of his losses has come via stoppage, and that was against Gervonta Davis – who is also the only man to stop Garcia.

Barrios lasted until the 11th round before being stopped by Davis and El Azteca also hauled himself off the canvas to reach the final bell and draw with Ramos, so he is clearly a durable competitor and can at least deny Garcia a stoppage.

Knockdowns could be on the agenda

The fight is expected to go the distance, but both of these men are big punchers and we may still get a couple of knockdowns along the way.

Garcia’s knockout rate stands at just over 83% and Barrios is no slouch in that regard either with 18 of his 29 victories coming inside the distance.

Barrios has knocked down three of his last four opponents, but all of those fights have gone the full 12 rounds, while Garcia has been knocked down in the second round and continues in two of his last four fights.

Garcia was also knocked down before recovering to win against Luke Campbell in 2021, so he has a history of recovering from adversity and as a bit of an outside bet backing the challenger to be knocked down and win has a chance.

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