Manchester City vs Leeds United predictions and betting tips – City to deliver fatal blow to Farke

Manchester City have lost two in a row, so a home match against struggling Leeds United looks the ideal fixture to get the Blues back on track.

The hosts have won five Premier League matches in a row at the Etihad Stadium. A sixth win looks almost inevitable and could spell the end of Daniel Farke’s time in charge of Leeds.

• Manchester City (-1) to win on the handicap – 8/13 with BetVictor
• Man City to score over 3.5 goals – 11/4 with Paddy Power
• Erling Haaland to score first – 15/8 with SBK

Man City vs Leeds odds

Find the latest Man City vs Leeds betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

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Man City vs Leeds predictions

Pep Guardiola rolled the dice in the Champions League on Tuesday and his gamble backfired in spectacular fashion as his team crashed to a 2-0 home defeat against Bayer Leverkusen.

The Spaniard made ten changes to the lineup that lost to Newcastle United last Saturday, but it only served to create more headaches for the long serving boss, as his squad players struggled to break down the slick German outfit.

The more immediate concern for Guardiola must be his team’s away form in the Premier League. Last Saturday’s 2-1 defeat away at Newcastle was City’s third defeat on the road in six league matches this season. 

The loss leaves them third in the table on 22 points from 12 matches, having picked up just seven points from a possible 18 on the road. That sort of away form isn’t going to see them catch Arsenal.

One area of strength City clearly have is their form at the Etihad. In direct contrast to their form on the road, the Cityzens have picked up 15 points from a possible 18, scoring 16 goals and conceding just four.  

Furthermore, the wins on home soil have been comfortable. City have beaten Man Utd (3-0), Burnley (5-1), Everton (2-0), Bournemouth (3-1) and Liverpool (3-0). Only Spurs have gone to the Etihad and left with anything.

Leeds United have run out of form at precisely the wrong time with a trip to the Etihad on the horizon.

Last Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa saw the Whites slip into the bottom three on goal difference. Leeds sit 18th in the table with just 11 points from 12 matches. Their goal difference is a poor -11. 

The loss also increased the pressure on manager Daniel Farke, whose job was on the line in the summer before a ball was even kicked. Farke’s situation could look even bleaker after Saturday.

Leeds have now lost five of their last six in the Premier League. A 2-1 home win over West Ham on Matchday 9 is all the Elland Road faithful have to celebrate since the end of September.

Furthermore, things are even worse on the road. Leeds have picked up just three points from six matches away from home, scoring just four goals and conceding 15. 

The solitary win came at Wolves on Matchday 5, when goals from Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach and Noah Okafor saw the Whites complete a comfortable 3-1 victory. 

They have since lost away at Burnley (2-0), Brighton (3-0) and Nottingham Forest (3-1), with two of those defeats coming against relegation rivals. It’s hard to see their form on the road improving any time soon, never mind this Saturday.

Man City vs Leeds betting tips

A trip to the Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City is probably the worst fixture Daniel Farke could have imagined in the current situation. City have a habit of putting Premier League strugglers to the sword on home soil. Another bad day could spell the end of Farke’s time at Leeds. Our match tips follow:

City to win by two or more looks the banker bet

Manchester City looked way off the pace when it comes to challenging for the title in last weekend’s 2-1 loss at Newcastle. 

Their squad also didn’t look the strongest when Pep Guardiola rang the changes for their 2-0 Champions League defeat on Tuesday. 

Pep will no doubt revert back to his strongest starting eleven on Saturday, which spells incredibly bad news for Leeds.

City have scored an average of 2.66 goals per game at the Etihad in the league this season. Along with Arsenal, they are the joint-highest scorers at home. 

Leeds United have conceded 15 goals at an average of 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Only Burnley (18) and Bournemouth (16) have conceded more. 

City are 17/10 to win from -2. That would mean winning by two clear goals. For example, 3-0 or 4-1. 

We’re playing safer and backing them from -1. That covers a 2-0 or 3-1 home win.

Bet on Man City -1 on the handicap to win at 8/13 with BetVictor

Back plenty of home goals for better value

Our opening tip is playing safe, so we are going for better value with our second pick.

Leaving aside City’s 2-0 home defeat to Spurs on Matchday 2, there have been 18 goals in the next five matches at the Etihad. 

That’s an average of 3.6 goals per game, with City scoring 16 of them at a rate of 3.2 goals per game. 

The Cityzens are even money to score over 2.5 goals and 11/4 to score over 3.5. Three goals for the hosts looks to have a very good chance. 

However, with Leeds struggling like they are, going for City to score four or more could be the better value alternative to our safer opening pick.

Back Man City to score over 3.5 goals at 11/4 with Paddy Power

Haaland to open the scoring

Erling Haaland is just 2/5 to score anytime and 15/8 to open the scoring. The Premier League’s top scorer is 2/1 to score two or more and 5/4 to have three or more shots on target. 

The Norwegian started on the bench against Leverkusen on Tuesday, and City only really looked like scoring once he came on. 

After drawing a blank against Newcastle and failing to find the net in his limited minutes against Leverkusen, a Haaland goal against struggling Leeds looks inevitable. It’s just finding a bet that offers value. 

If City run riot, Haaland will probably score two. However, we are favouring him to score first.

Back Erling Haaland to score first at 15/8 with SBK

Man City vs Leeds predicted lineups

• Man City expected lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Bernardo, Gonzalez; Cherki, Foden, Doku; Haaland.
• Leeds expected lineup: Perri; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Gruev, Tanaka; Aaronson, Okafor, Nmecha.

Where to watch Man City vs Leeds

• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England.
• Date and time: Saturday 29th, November, 3pm.
• How to watch: Not available live in the UK, highlights to follow later.

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About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

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