Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes prediction, odds, pick for UFC Mexico City

UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh continues on the main card with a bout between Edgar Chairez and Felipe Bunes in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Chairez-Bunes prediction and pick.

Edgar Chairez (12-6, 1 NC) recently tapped Daniel Lacerda and C.J. Vergara in Mexico City with first-round submissions, between a decision loss to UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van in Vegas. The all-action Mexican flyweight brings proven finishing instincts and hometown momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Felipe Bunes.

Felipe “Felipinho” Bunes (14-8) rebounded from a brutal TKO loss to Joshua Van by snatching a quick armbar over Jose Johnson, then dropped a competitive decision to undefeated grinder Rafael Estevam. The veteran BJJ black belt remains a dangerous submission artist everywhere as he comes into his fight this weekend against Edgar Chairez.

UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Mexico City Odds: Edgar Chairez-Felipe Bunes Odds

Edgar Chairez: -325

Felipe Bunes: +260

Over 1.5 rounds: -188

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Edgar Chairez Will Win

Chairez has the exact kind of scrappy, opportunistic game that can trouble Bunes over three rounds in Mexico City. The Mexican thrives in chaos, blending long, busy striking with aggressive clinch entries and a knack for locking up submissions in wild scrambles.

We just saw Bunes struggle badly when an opponent was willing to push a wrestling-heavy, grinding pace, giving up multiple takedowns and extended control time to Rafael Estevam. Chairez may not be a traditional chain wrestler, but his willingness to attack front chokes, back takes, and transitions forces grapplers to defend instead of building their own game.

Add in the Mexico City altitude and Chairez’s comfort fighting at home, and drawn-out grappling exchanges and scrambles could tax Bunes’ cardio more heavily as the minutes tick by. If Chairez can stay defensively sound early, pressure with volume, and create the kind of messy grappling sequences he excels in, he’s live for another submission finish or a decision built on damage and mat time against the Brazilian.

Why Felipe Bunes Will Win

Bunes is the more structured, technically sound fighter in this matchup, and that matters over fifteen minutes. The former LFA champion is a second-degree BJJ black belt with nine submission wins, but he also brings clean, straight boxing and a sharp kicking game that can pick at Chairez from range.

Where Chairez thrives in chaos and scrambles, Bunes is comfortable staying disciplined, using footwork, jabs and low kicks to create set-ups rather than brawling on instinct. If he establishes his range early, he can slow Chairez’s forward pressure and force the Mexican to lunge into counters or telegraphed level changes.

Defensively, Bunes has more layered grappling than many of Chairez’s recent opponents; he can both defensively wrestle and attack from top, which limits the kind of opportunistic chokes Chairez has been hitting. As long as he stays composed in front of the Mexico City crowd, mixes in a few takedowns, and avoids prolonged wild exchanges, Bunes has a clear path to either banking a measured decision or snatching a momentum-swinging submission of his own.

Final Edgar Chairez-Felipe Bunes Prediction & Pick

This is a high-variance matchup between two aggressive finishers, but the slight lean goes toward Edgar Chairez in front of a Mexico City crowd. Chairez comes in with eight submissions and four knockouts, and he’s looked increasingly comfortable forcing scramble-heavy, finish-oriented fights at UFC level.

Bunes is the more decorated grappler on paper, with nine submission wins of his own and a long resume in LFA and ACA, but he can be hurt and has been stopped in recent years. Chairez’s willingness to push pace on the feet, throw with power, and immediately attack the neck in transitions creates a lot of high-pressure sequences for a 35-year-old flyweight who has taken damage.

The altitude also subtly favors Chairez, who has already performed well in Mexico and seems comfortable weaponizing pace and chaos rather than relying on a slow, methodical game. If he stays defensively aware early and avoids getting stuck under Bunes for long stretches, the most likely outcome is Chairez eventually finding the back or a guillotine in a scramble and securing another statement submission in front of his home fans.

Final Edgar Chairez-Felipe Bunes Prediction & Pick: Edgar Chairez (-325), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)

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