Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots odds, predictions, and betting tips – can Jarrett Stidham overcome the odds?

In the AFC championship game, the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos are hosting the No. 2-seeded New England Patriots. However, the Broncos will be without starting quarterback Bo Nix. 

Nix broke his ankle on the second-to-last play in overtime in their win over the Buffalo Bills. 

Below, I’ll navigate the AFC championship in more detail, including a game preview and some prop bets.

Broncos vs Patriots best bets

• Drake Maye under 30.5 rushing yards – 22/25 with BetMGM
• Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions – 11/10 with BetMGM
• Jaleel McLaughlin anytime TD – 3/1 with BetMGM

The Broncos took down the Bills in overtime, 33-30. However, as mentioned, Nix, who had three passing touchdowns, broke his ankle and will miss the remainder of the season. 

Now, it’s Stidham’s time. He was drafted in the fourth round in 2019 by the Patriots, so this is somewhat of a “revenge game” for him. However, he hasn’t started a game since Week 18 of the 2023-24 season. In that game, he lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 27-14, completing 58.8% of his passes for 272 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. 

He started Week 17, too, completing 62.5% of his passes for 224 yards and one touchdown in a 16-9 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, who had Easton Stick (their backup) starting. 

That said, he’ll have a defence behind him that leads the NFL in pressures with 292 and the tutelage of head coach Sean Payton. 

As for the Patriots, they’ve taken on two stout defences in the Chargers in the Wild Card round and the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional round. It doesn’t get any easier this week, but of course, facing a backup quarterback, they should be in the driver’s seat. 

That said, against pressure during this postseason, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has completed five of nine passes for 109 yards, one touchdown, and four turnover-worthy plays. 

Thankfully, the Patriots have a strong defence, too: Over the last three weeks combined, including Week 18, they’ve allowed 52 carries for 93 yards and zero touchdowns to opposing running backs. 

Broncos vs Patriots preview

The knee-jerk response to seeing a backup quarterback in an AFC championship game would be to take the other team and just assume it’ll be a blowout. 

But I’m just not sure. Five points is a lot even with Stidham, given how strong this Broncos defence is. 

This has all the makings of a 17-14 final score. The Patriots put up 16 points in the Wild Card round and followed that up with 28 in the AFC Divisional Round.

So, I believe the Broncos’ gameplan will be to utilise the ball and have Stidham pick his spots. It’ll be set up to keep the Patriots off the field and win the time of possession. 

I believe the Patriots edge out a win, but the Broncos will cover the spread. 

Broncos vs Patriots tips

Find the latest odds for the Denver Broncos vs. the New England Patriots courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

With Stidham under centre, I understand where the point spread is coming from. However, if Nix was healthy, I’d have to believe the Broncos would be small home favourites by maybe 1-2 points. I just don’t believe Stidham warrants a possible 7-point swing.

The defence is too good, and Maye hasn’t played well against pressure this postseason. Thus, I understand the spread due to the backup quarterback, but I’ll take the points with the Broncos at home. 

Drake Maye under 30.5 rushing yards

In the AFC Divisional Round, Maye ran four times for 10 yards against the Houston Texans. Now, this week, in the AFC Championship, he’ll take on a Broncos defence that allows 20.9 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 66 rushing yards or more over the last two weeks, but they’ve allowed 30 yards or fewer in 13 games this season. 

As for Maye, he’s had 30 yards or fewer in 12 games, including three of his last five games. 

Something else to consider: This season, Maye has 103 carries for 450 yards and four touchdowns. However, when pressured, he has 32 carries for 217 yards and one touchdown. 

The Broncos lead the NFL in pressures with 292. 

I don’t think he’ll run as much, which will put him under this line. 

Tip Drake Maye to have 30 rushing yards or fewer against the Broncos at 17/20 with BetMGM

Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions

The odds favour Diggs to go under this line, but there’s value in the over. 

The Broncos primarily play Cover-1 and Cover-3, and against those coverages, Maye has completed 74% of his passes for 2,688 yards (10.3 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. 

His top target against those coverages is Diggs, who has 46 catches on 52 targets for 590 yards and two touchdowns. 

During this postseason, Diggs is leading the team in target share at 20.8% and has run a route on 84.9% of Maye’s dropbacks.

Back Stefon Diggs to have 5 receptions or more against the Broncos at 11/10 with BetMGM

Jaleel McLaughlin anytime TD

Finally, for my last prop bet, I’d be willing to maybe use a quarter or half-unit wager on McLaughlin to score a touchdown. 

He’s an intriguing player in that he doesn’t get involved in the passing game, but whenever he carries the ball, he makes something happen. 

He had four carries for 21 yards last week (5.3 yards per carry). He’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry or better in each of his last four games. 

With Jarrett Stidham under centre, they may utilise the running game more, which could lead to McLaughlin approaching 10 touches. 

The odds aren’t great, so this would be a smaller wager, but McLaughlin is explosive.

Tip Jaleel McLaughlin to have a touchdown against the Patriots at 3/1 with BetMGM

Broncos vs Patriots injury report 

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of the action.

Denver Broncos

• Out: Bo Nix (quarterback) – ankle; J.K. Dobbins (running back) – foot; Drew Sanders (linebacker)  – ankle; Brandon Jones (safety) – pectoral; Luke Wattenberg (centre) – shoulder; Matt Peart (offensive tackle) – knee.
• Questionable: Troy Franklin (wide receiver) – hamstring; Pat Bryant (wide receiver – concussion; Alex Forsyth (centre) – ankle;
• Doubtful: N/A

New England Patriots

• Out: Antonio Gibson (running back) – knee; Mack Hollins (wide receiver) – abdomen; Joshua Farmer (defensive tackle) – hamstring.
• Questionable: Carlton Davis III (cornerback) – head; Harold Landry III (linebacker) – knee; Thayer Munford Jr (offensive tackle) – knee; Marte Mapu (linebacker) – hip; Christian Elliss (linebacker) – hip.
• Doubtful: N/A

Broncos vs Patriots game info

• Date: Sunday 25th January
• Time: 8:00pm GMT
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, Colorado
• Where to watch: Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports NFL

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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