Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots betting tips and predictions for NFL playoff clash

Denver Broncos and New England Patriots have both finished bottom of their divisions within the last three seasons but they have turned their fortunes around impressively and face off at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday (kick-off 8pm GMT) with a place in the Super Bowl at stake.

The Broncos made the playoffs under head coach Sean Payton last season, going out in the wild-card round, while the Patriots finished last in the AFC East 12 months ago.

New head coach Mike Vrabel has revitalised the team he used to play for this year and now they are favourites to return to the Super Bowl just seven years after their sixth success under Bill Belichick.

Both teams went 14-3 in the regular season, with the Broncos winning a tiebreaker to become the top seeds in the AFC. They came through a thriller against Buffalo Bills in the divisional round last week, winning 33-30 in overtime, but lost their starting quarterback Box Nix to a broken ankle in the process.

The Patriots have had two relatively trouble-free home playoff wins so far, beating Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 and Houston Texans 28-16, but now they must head out on the road for the first time in the post-season.

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Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Tips

• Denver Broncos +4.5 @ 9/10
• Under 42.5 points @ 37/40
• Bet builder: Drake Maye under 219.5 passing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 55.5 rushing yards, Evan Engram over 21.5 receiving yards @ 23/4

Broncos still have hope without Nix

The Broncos and Patriots have made 19 Super Bowl appearances between them and another will be added to the list this year. 

Despite the shocking news that Broncos quarterback Box Nix broke his ankle near the end of last week’s dramatic divisional round win over the Bills, the Colorado outfit should not be discounted just yet.

Payton’s side are underdogs at home as they will be forced to start Jarrett Stidham, who did not make a pass attempt in the regular season, but they are not out just yet and they should be at least capable of staying within the handicap at home.

Nix has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos and a capable performer in his first two NFL seasons, but he is rarely the reason why they are successful and they can still count on their top-notch defence to lead the way.

Stidham is one of the better back-ups in the league and, while being thrown in against a strong Pats defence for his first meaningful action of the season at a week’s notice is far from ideal, he led the team to a win over the Chargers when he made two starts after Russell Wilson was benched at the end of the 2023 season and had 496 passing yards in those games.

The Texans’ defence gave Patriots QB Drake Maye plenty of problems last week, sacking him five times and causing him to lose two fumbles and throw an interception, but a poor performance from Houston QB CJ Stroud meant they could not capitalise.

The Broncos have excelled in the underdog role this season, covering the handicap four times in five games with one tie, and if they can make a solid start with the crowd on their side they should at least make the Patriots work hard.

Defences should be on top

Maye has been excellent for the Patriots this season, but the young QB had a tough time against the Texans’ top-ranked defence last week and the Broncos were only just behind Houston in the regular season.

Ranking second overall, seventh against the pass and second against the run, the Broncos led the league with 68 sacks with Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper leading the charge.

The Patriots allowed just 10 points to each of their last two opponents in the regular season and have given up just three and 16 points in their playoff games and. while the total points line is relatively low at 42.5, these teams should struggle to get there.

Maye could be kept in check

Start a three-leg bet builder on the game at Empower Field at Mile High by taking Maye to pass for 219 or fewer yards against the tough Denver defence.

Maye has failed to reach that mark in two of his last three games and the Patriots’ offensive line can let him down when facing strong defences, giving up five or more sacks against the Steelers, Browns, Falcons, Chargers and Texans.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson should still have some success and can post at least 56 rushing yards after recording 123 in his two playoff games, while tight end Evan Engram could prove a valuable outlet for Stidham and is taken to have 22 or more receiving yards for Denver.

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All odds correct at time of writing

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