Chelsea vs PSG predictions and betting tips – Blues face uphill struggle

If Chelsea are to advance to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, they need to pull off one of their greatest ever European comebacks at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night.

Liam Rosenior’s men trail the defending champions by three goals ahead of the second leg. Can Chelsea eliminate Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16?

• PSG win or a draw – 8/11 with bet365
• PSG to score last – 21/20 with bet365
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score any time – 15/8 with bet365

Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain odds

Find the latest Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Chelsea vs PSG predictions

With 70 minutes on the clock at the Parc des Princes, Liam Rosenior would have been reasonably pleased with where Chelsea were at in last week’s first leg.

Facing the reigning kings of the continent on their own patch, Chelsea had held their own up until that point. At 2-2, they arguably had the upper hand in a two-legged tie.

Then things went south fairly rapidly. By the end of the night, Chelsea were staring a 5-2 defeat in the face.

Paris Saint-Germain came on strong in the closing stages, scoring three more goals to register an emphatic victory. But it was hard to shake the feeling that Chelsea were complicit in their own downfall.

Not for the first time this season, individual errors and general defensive sloppiness proved costly for the Blues. Filip Jorgensen gifted PSG their third goal, which was the most decisive of the night, before a Khvicha Kvaratskheli brace put the icing on the Parisian cake.

Chelsea’s lack of experience – another familiar shortcoming – was evidenced by the way they collapsed under pressure late on.

“Our objective was to win the game. Generally, I’m disappointed about the extra two goals as that now makes the tie very difficult,” Rosenior admitted afterwards. 

“Goals give you momentum and confidence. The fourth goal from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a fantastic finish. Then at 4-2, okay, it’s not our night, but we’ve still shown enough to overcome a two-goal deficit. The fifth goal, we don’t stay calm and we get punished by a really good team.”

To make things worse, Chelsea did not exactly have the ideal warm-up for the second leg. They were poor in a 1-0 home loss to Newcastle United on Saturday, a result which saw them drop out of the Champions League qualification spots in the Premier League.

PSG in 2025/26 have not reached the level they hit last season, so we should not rule anything out. An early goal or two for Chelsea would leave the holders sweating.

Make no mistake, though: if the Blues were to advance from this position, it would be one of their greatest ever feats. Luis Enrique’s side will arrive in west London with a comfortable cushion and it is difficult to envisage a team of PSG’s quality throwing that away.

Chelsea vs PSG betting tips

Can Chelsea do the unthinkable and come back from three goals down against Paris Saint-Germain?

More pain for Chelsea

The 1-0 defeat by Newcastle United last time out was part of a pattern for Chelsea, who have now gone three home games without a win.

That will concern Rosenior, whose side have struggled to break down low defensive blocks at Stamford Bridge.

PSG will not necessarily set up in the same way as Leeds United, Burnley or Newcastle, all of whom have taken points off Chelsea in west London of late.

But with their threat in transition, PSG will pose the Blues plenty of problems in the second leg, especially as the hosts will need to take risks in order to reduce the deficit.

That very situation is likely to play into PSG’s hands.

Tip a PSG win or a draw at 8/11 with bet365

PSG to have last word

PSG scored the last goal of the game in the first leg and they are good value to do the same in the return fixture.

It could happen in one of two ways. The first is that, with Chelsea still chasing the game in the closing stages, PSG hit them on the break.

Alternatively, if the Parisians are comfortably ahead on aggregate late on, they could take advantage of the opposition’s demoralised state by striking last at Stamford Bridge.

Either way, the odds on this wager are too attractive to pass up given PSG’s quality in forward areas.

Back PSG to score last at 21/20 with bet365

Kvaratskhelia to haunt Blues

Kvaratskhelia’s cameo off the bench last week put PSG in pole position to advance to the quarter-finals from this last-16 tie.

The Georgia international has had his injury problems this term, just like several of his PSG team-mates.

There is also significant competition for places in Luis Enrique’s frontline, so Kvaratskhelia is no longer a guaranteed starter.

However, his exploits in the first leg have surely earned him a spot in the PSG team for Tuesday night, perhaps alongside Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola in the front three.

Against Chelsea’s suspect defence, Kvaratskhelia can find the back of the net again.

Select Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score any time at 15/8 with bet365

Chelsea vs PSG predicted lineups

• Chelsea expected lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro.
• PSG expected lineup: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola.

Where to watch Chelsea vs PSG

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England.
• Date and time: Tuesday 17th March, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 2.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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