Chargers’ odds for AFC No. 1 seed ahead of massive clash with Texans

The Los Angeles Chargers are on a roll. While they have not played perfect football during their 4-game winning streak as they head into Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans, they have done enough to secure victories over the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys.

The win over the Eagles was the only shocker of the bunch, and it displayed the grit that Chargers teams have lacked for years. Jim Harbaugh’s team is clearly an aggressive group of fighters and while mistakes will occur at various points throughout the game, the Chargers punch back nearly every time they make an error.

The Chargers (11-4) have already clinched a playoff spot in the AFC playoff structure. They are trying to track down the No. 1 spot in both the AFC West and the AFC postseason structure. The Denver Broncos (13-3) have the inside track on both of those, but the Chargers have an opportunity to steal 1st place away from the Broncos and potentially steal the top spot in the conference from Denver and the New England Patriots (12-3).

The odds are not in their favor. The Broncos have a 55.2 percent chance (per DVOA) of capturing the No. 1 spot in the AFC and a 79.5 percent opportunity to win the AFC West title. The Patriots are trying to hold off the Buffalo Bills (11-4) in the AFC East and their odds of gaining the top position in the AFC are 31.2 percent. The Chargers have just a 2.6 percent opportunity to win the No. 1 spot and come away with the bye in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs.

Chargers can steal division title

Despite those numbers, the Chargers have the opportunity to determine their own fate in the division. They would need help to gain the top spot in the AFC overall and it seems very unlikely that the surging Patriots will lose to the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. If the Patriots beat both of those teams, the Chargers cannot pass them.

But if the Chargers can beat the Houston Texans at home and close the regular season with a triumph over the Broncos in the Mile High City, quarterback Justin Herbert and his teammates will steal the AFC West crown.

If that scenario happens, both the Chargers and the Broncos would finish the season with 13-4 records. The Chargers would win the division title based on their 2-0 head to head record against Denver. The Chargers edged the Broncos 23-20 in Week 3.

The odds appear somewhat low even though the Chargers’ fate is in their own hands. That’s because the schedule is so challenging. The Texans (10-5) are the hottest team in the NFL with a 7-game winning streak and their defense has been dominant. If the Chargers survive the Texans, they have to beat one of the best teams in the NFL on their home field.

Chargers have the key players to get the job done

The Chargers depend on Harbaugh to prepare the team mentally and emotionally for big games as he combines a college coach’s enthusiasm and confidence with his talent for putting together a solid game plan.

Those characteristics will take a team so far. But there is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Herbert combines brilliant talent, size and desire in order to lead the team. He has completed 319 of 480 passes for 3,491 yards with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Herbert has been battered and bruised throughout the season and he has played with injuries. He has run for 461 yards and 2 TDs and he has also been sacked 49 times for 266 yards in losses.

The Chargers have been dependent on their running game, and they have a pair of strong backs in Kimani Vidal and rookie Omarion Hampton. Vidal is battling a neck injury and he is questionable to play against the Texans, but his status has improved during the week.

Vidal has rushed for 631 yards while averaging 4.2 yards per carry and he has scored 3 touchdowns. Hampton has gained 516 yards, averaged 4.7 yards per attempt and has scored 3 TDs.

Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are Herbert’s two leading receivers. McConkey has caught 65 passes for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Allen has 73-724-4. Herbert knows that Allen will make the play when the Chargers are facing a key 3rd-down situation. The veteran receiver has turned 46 of his receptions into first downs.

The Chargers defense has gotten the job done once again this season. The Chargers rank 4th in yards allowed as they have given up an average of 272.3 yards per game this season. Linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu has been their most impactful player as he leads the team with 13.0 sacks and 20 tackles for loss along with 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery.

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