Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips – Mourinho faces old club again

Benfica and Real Madrid contested a dramatic game on matchday eight of the league phase, and the two teams will meet again in the Champions League knockout play-offs. 

Jose Mourinho would relish getting one over on his former club again, but will Real Madrid have too much for their Portuguese opponents this time? We will find out on Tuesday.

• Real Madrid to win – 17/20 with Midnite
• Real Madrid to score first – 4/6 with BoyleSports
• Kylian Mbappe to score any time – 8/11 with QuinnBet

Benfica vs Real Madrid odds

Find the latest Benfica vs Real Madrid betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions

It was one of the best moments in the Champions League in recent years.

With Benfica leading Real Madrid 3-2 on matchday eight of the league phase, there was a curious situation in which both teams needed a goal.

A draw would have been enough for Madrid to squeeze into the top eight and qualify directly for the round of 16, thus bypassing the knockout play-offs.

Benfica may have been winning on the night, but a 3-2 triumph would not have been sufficient for them to secure the top-24 finish that is required for the play-offs. 

To say second-half stoppage time at the Estadio da Luz was eventful would be an understatement. 

Raul Asencio was shown a second yellow card two minutes into time added on, before Rodrygo was given his marching orders soon after.

With a two-man advantage, Benfica sensed their opportunity – but time was fast running out. With one last throw of the dice, they sent everyone forward for a free-kick.

Who rose highest to head home and give the hosts the two-goal victory they needed to make the play-offs? Only Anatoliy Trubin, the Benfica goalkeeper. 

It was an incredible denouement to the league phase and yet another magic moment for Jose Mourinho in the Champions League.

He will now face his former club again over two legs. Despite their setback in Lisbon last time out, Madrid are strong favourites to advance.

There were a couple of major wobbles for the Blancos early on in Alvaro Arbeloa’s tenure. One was the 4-2 defeat by Benfica. The other was an even more embarrassing loss to second-tier Albacete in the Copa del Rey.

But Madrid have improved in recent weeks. They brushed an in-form Real Sociedad team aside on Saturday, winning 4-1 at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu even without Kylian Mbappe, who remained on the bench throughout. 

Madrid have now won eight matches in a row in La Liga to pile the pressure on Barcelona in the title race. As ever, though, the Champions League is the tournament that matters most in the white half of the Spanish capital.

“We know how hard it’ll be, we know how excited the Benfica crowd will be, we need to think about winning the first leg, that’s it,” Arbeloa said after the victory over Real Sociedad. “We can’t think about the second leg right now.”

Benfica vs Real Madrid betting tips

Real Madrid resume their quest for a sixth Champions League triumph against Benfica on Tuesday.

Madrid to avenge defeat

Real Madrid will want to make up for that 4-2 defeat by Benfica last month. Their players will feel there is a score to be settled in Lisbon.

Benfica fans will remember that victory for years to come, but it is worth remembering that even with a famous win against Madrid, they only just scraped into 24th place.

The Portuguese outfit lost five out of eight matches in the league phase and, despite being unbeaten, they are only third in the Primeira Liga.

Provided they are focused and disciplined in a way they were not on their last trip to Lisbon, Madrid should come out on top here.

Back Real Madrid to win at 17/20 with Midnite

Madrid to strike first

Real Madrid actually scored first in the recent meeting between these two teams, but they were unable to press home their advantage.

The Estadio da Luz crowd will be well for Tuesday’s contest, so it would be beneficial for Madrid to quieten the home fans down as soon as possible.

Benfica only conceded 12 goals in the league phase, fewer than several teams who finished above them.

Even so, the home team will struggle to contain Madrid’s firepower and there is a good chance the visitors will draw first blood.

Tip Real Madrid to score first at 4/6 with BoyleSports

Mbappe goal on return

Mbappe was on the bench against Real Sociedad having missed a few training sessions with knee trouble.

Had Real Madrid been in trouble, Arbeloa would have called upon the France international. As it was, Madrid did not need to risk him.

Mbappe will be back in the starting XI on Tuesday, provided he does not suffer a setback before then.

With 13 goals to his name, he is the Champions League’s highest scorer in 2025/26 by some distance.

Mbappe will fancy his chances of increasing his tally at the Estadio da Luz.

Go for Kylian Mbappe to score any time at 8/11 with QuinnBet

Benfica vs Real Madrid predicted lineups

• Benfica expected lineup: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.
• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler.

Where to watch Benfica vs Real Madrid

• Location: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal.
• Date and time: Tuesday 17th February, 8pm.
• How to watch: Amazon Prime Video.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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