Week 6 Best and Worst WR/TE Matchups: Jakobi Meyers, Wan'Dale Robinson set up for success

It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?

While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.

This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.

I’m switching from adjusted yards per attempt to target share as the primary metric for evaluating slot and boundary matchups. AY/A can be very much skewed by a big play or two, leaving us chasing (unpredictable) big plays. I’ll still use AY/A — along with completion rate over expected — in my analysis here. But target share to the slot and boundary will get the graphic treatment going forward.

Slot Matchups

Cardinals vs. Rams

One thing we’re finding more and more here at Rotoworld Headquarters is that not every secondary giving up lots of slot targets is created equally. Take the Rams, for instance: Only three teams allow a lower adjusted yards per attempt on slot throws. Yet only the Eagles see a higher rate of slot targets. Curious!

For our purposes that means Trey McBride’s Week 6 matchup isn’t quite as juicy as we might expect. That’s fine. You’re still facing a heavy fine or a short prison stint if you bench him. What this really means is that Kendrick Bourne should be avoided at (almost) any cost in 12-team leagues this week.

Last week, with Marvin Harrison Jr. gone, the Cardinals did their best Rams impression and used three tight end sets at a high rate. All the cool kids are using three tight end sets, and Mike LaFleur desperately wants to be a cool kid. Just look at the guy’s hair.

Bourne, with all this three tight end stuff going on, saw his route rate dip to 59 percent in Week 5 against the Lions. Yeah, he saw seven targets and got away with it (five catches, 70 yards). But now he faces an LA defense that has been stingy to opposing slot bros. Only the Vikings allow a lower completion rate over expected on slot targets than the Rams this season.

Browns vs. Ravens

Baltimore’s secondary is becoming quite the sieve for slot pass catchers. Through Week 5 they allow the league’s sixth highest adjusted yards per attempt and eighth highest completion rate over expected on slot throws.

That could be good and fine for KC Concepcion, who is somehow practicing this week after getting knocked out cold on the turf last Sunday against the Jets. Concepcion, the Browns’ primary slot guy, leads the team in first-read targets. If he’s sidelined, Isaiah Bond would likely sub in as the main slot receiver after running 94 percent of his routes from the slot last week against New York. That Bond had a team-leading seven targets in Week 5 makes him interesting in deeper formats this week if Concepcion is inactive.

Titans vs. Colts

Titans head coach Robert Saleh reportedly had a “cool conversation” this week with struggling second-year QB Cam Ward, so maybe we’ll get somewhat cooler play from the guy who, on the spreadsheets, looks a lot like a mega-turbo-giga bust.

Anyway, everyone’s favorite PPR scammer, Wan’Dale Robinson, has a nice little matchup this week against the Colts. Indy has been tormented via slot passes in almost every game this season, allowing the third highest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets along with the second highest completion rate over expected. No defense has allowed more receiving yards from the slot through Week 5.

Enter Robinson, who runs around 78 percent of his routes from the slot. Last week Robinson finally did stuff for fantasy purposes, catching six of seven targets for 53 yards. It’s not great, but it’s not nothing, which is exactly what you were getting out of Robinson before Week 5. Last week he led the Titans in first-read targets and sits just behind Carnell Tate in season-long first-read targets.

Also in Robinson’s favor: Colts opponents this season have passed at a 62 percent neutral rate, the third highest in the league. Juiced drop back volume for Ward and a Colts secondary that struggles bigly against slot guys could make “Dale” something more than the most depressing PPR scam you’ve ever seen.

Boundary Matchups

Texans vs. Jaguars

I wrote about this game the other day as a potential source of never-ending air yards, and if we’re going to buy in to the trends we’ve tracked through the season’s first month and change, we’re going to be interested in Houston boundary wideouts.

That of course includes air yards dominator Nico Collins. It could also include the newly-acquired Marvin Harrison, Jr. If he’s active — and if we get word that MHJ will play a decent number of snaps — he’s in a good spot to produce here. There’s next to no chance Houston will be able to run the ball against the Jags front seven. CJ Stroud could have another pass-heavy outing, and he’d do well to attack Jacksonville’s boundary corners.

The Texans, meanwhile, allow the NFL’s highest EPA per drop back on boundary targets. With the right game script, something crazy like a big Brian Thomas, Jr. game could come to pass. Jakobi Meyers might cook too.

Colts vs. Titans

The Titans — not listed here because their 44 percent boundary target share ranks 14th — have been quite generous to outside wideouts this season. In fact, Tennessee opponents have been 14 percent over their expected completion rate when throwing to the boundary this season — the highest mark in the league. Only the Lions and Texans give up a higher EPA per drop back on boundary pass attempts.

I take no pleasure in saying Laquon Treadwell would be a beneficiary of this little trend, since I mentioned Treadwell as a (negative) regression candidate in Week 6’s Regression Files. It is what it is though, and Treadwell is the Colts’ boundary air yards eater for now. You should know Keenan Allen, who had eight targets last week, runs 66 percent of his routes from the boundary. He should be fine as a WR3/4 in 12-team formats.

Chargers vs. Chiefs

To call Kansas City’s secondary stingy against boundary wideouts would be like calling me “a little tired” when trying to will myself through a west coast postseason baseball game. The Chiefs have allowed (by far) the league’s lowest EPA on boundary throws, along with the third lowest completion rate over expected on such passes.

This is your warning to avoid any and all Chargers receivers this week. That includes boundary wideout Quentin Johnston, who might play with a chest injury in Week 6. Just find another option if you’re considering a Bolts wideout.