The Detroit Lions will travel for a matchup against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. 

The Bills are coming off an impressive performance against the Houston Texans, while the Detroit Lions picked up a 1-point overtime win against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1.

Buffalo traveled to Houston, scoring 36 points on what was generally viewed as the best defense in the NFL entering the season. They scored points on 7 of 10 true drives in that game, and it could’ve been more, but they opted to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal early in the game.

Week 2 Thursday Night Football Betting Pick

The Bills always feature one of the best offenses in the NFL, so it isn’t a surprise that they found success. The amount of success on the road against an elite defense was surprising, though. Mainly because Buffalo has been a drastically better offense at home for years.

The Bills averaged nearly 0.1 more points per play in Buffalo compared to on the road last season. This has been the case for years, and they’re simply a much better team at home compared to on the road.

The Lions are expected to be a playoff team in 2026, but they’re dealing with some key injuries, specifically along the offensive line and in the secondary.

Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are currently injured for Detroit, leaving their secondary thin. Christian Mahogany is tentatively expected to miss this game at guard, while Juice Scruggs is injured but expected to play. Blake Miller looks to be a true game-time decision, although we’ve seen other tackles struggle at times while trying to play through injury.

Similarly to Buffalo, though, Detroit is a drastically better offense at home, where they play in a dome. In 2025, they average a ridiculous 0.528 points per play in Detroit compared to only 0.387 on the road. The Lions also gave up 0.103 more points per play on the road last season.

This is an interesting spot where Detroit underperformed in Week 1, and they could be primed for a bounce-back. I don’t expect that to happen with the offensive line injuries and missing two of their best players on the back end.

These are two of the biggest home/road splits teams in the NFL, and I’m backing Buffalo in their first home game of the season.

Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills -4.5 spread | -113 at BetRivers

2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 0-4