I vaguely remember listening to Scott Van Pelt discuss the 2025 Masters on a podcast and picking Rory McIlroy to finally win it. Loosely paraphrasing, his argument was this: “I know it’s not necessarily scientific, but I believe there is a time when certain things are meant to happen.” After nearly 20 years pro with no Masters win, Van Pelt blocked out the evidence that Scottie Scheffler was probably a better bet and took McIlroy, only a slight underdog already, because the vibes demanded it. He was right.

Right now, the vibes demand that I pick Ben Shelton to win the 2026 US Open on Sunday and break the going-on-24-year curse of American men’s tennis. Shelton is a tiny underdog at +122, though that is probably a touch optimistic since it’s correcting for how much money will be coming in on the American’s side. Who, may I ask, hates fun enough to bet money on Alexander Zverev to win it all? This is going to be a 150 percent biased column.

Zverev is, unfortunately, 5-0 in his career against Shelton and has won the last 10 sets in a row, having lost their first set ever against each other and not a single one since. That is, as the emo kids say, dark bro, but I still think there’s reason for hope. Shelton is not the same player he was even last year, though you might not think so by looking at the numbers.

Sure, he has ratcheted his service point winning percentage from 67.9 percent to 71.2 percent. That is not small potatoes; over the course of a long match, Shelton could serve well over 100 points, meaning he’s adding a whole game of value. But his hold percentage overall is down, and I’d be lying if I said Shelton was having some kind of scorched-earth season — he’s not. By percentage of return points won, he’s the single worst return player on the tour, converting a positively appalling 32.7 percent of return points. But I don’t actually think that tells the whole story.

Shelton is not the kind of analytical beast that Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz are; Zverev has uncanny accuracy on first serves and crazy baseline mobility for someone of his height, while Alcaraz is one of the most statistically complete players we’ve ever seen. But Shelton knows that and has adopted a more aggressive, riskier approach to compensate. He’s probably not fully comfortable serve-and-volleying, but he forced Alcaraz to respond to a gameplan he wasn’t anticipating. Against a superior opponent, he can’t allow them to dictate the pace of the match — even if it’s a dangerous initiative, Shelton will have to take it.

And he will. Shelton’s demeanor on court looks completely different from previous years; he’s smiling less during points, offering only the industry-standard fist pump to his dad, who is also not smiling, in the courtside seats. There is a real sense of gameplan and of focus; it’s not that Shelton is enjoying the game less, he’s just realized how much he can achieve if he makes fewer mistakes.

I’m not going to lie: this is going to be a really tough match for Shelton to win. Zverev is among the best servers on tour and Shelton will need to pull out every trick in the book if he’s going to break him even once. But this will also be one of the single most lopsided crowd experiences in the history of sports. Zverev is not exactly a popular guy stemming from two allegations of domestic abuse, and Arthur Ashe Stadium will be 99.99 percent against him. Shelton does not have the advantage, but he has the tools to take it.

And guys … if not now, then when? The next tournament without one of Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz in which an American beats the other one might be in like 2050. Shelton will need all the help he can get, but he can do this. He really can.