Trevor Lawrence has so much talent for the quarterback position that if freshmen could declare for the NFL draft, Lawrence probably would have been the first overall pick in 2019, when he had just led Clemson to a national championship as a true freshman. Instead, Lawrence stayed three years at Clemson and was the first pick in 2021, viewed as a sure-thing quarterback prospect.
In Year 6, Lawrence finally looks like everything he was supposed to be.
Lawrence is having by far the best year of his NFL career, with career-high stats across the board that are constrained only by the fact that the Jaguars win so many blowouts that Lawrence doesn’t throw many passes in the fourth quarter.
So far this season, Lawrence has completed 146 of 224 passes for 1,932 yards, with 18 touchdowns, four interceptions and an NFL-leading passer rating of 111.7. Project Lawrence’s totals to a 17-game season, and he’s on pace to finish with 4,106 yards, 38 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Those are MVP numbers.
Lawrence’s rookie year was a disaster, as he led the league in interceptions while playing on a chaotic Jaguars team coached by Urban Meyer, whose only foray into NFL coaching lasted less than one season. Lawrence and the Jaguars got a lot better once they kicked Meyer to the curb, but even in the next three years with Doug Pederson, an offensive coach with a Super Bowl-winning pedigree, Lawrence didn’t live up to the pre-draft hype.
Playing in Liam Coen’s offense, something has changed. Last year the Jaguars went 13-4, winning double-digit games for the first time since drafting Lawrence, and this year Lawrence and the Jaguars are even better. Lawrence’s average of 8.6 yards per pass is the best of his career by almost a yard and a half, a remarkable improvement for any quarterback to make in his sixth season.
Lawrence has thrown touchdown passes on 8 percent of his attempts, the best in the NFL this season and by far the best mark of his career. And after getting sacked a career-high 41 times last year, Lawrence has gotten much more comfortable reading the pass rush in his second year in Coen’s offense and has only been sacked 13 times this season.
Lawrence’s numbers would look even better if the Jaguars weren’t so often taking their foot off the gas late in games because they’re blowing opponents out. Lawrence has 1,196 yards and 12 touchdowns in the first halves of games this season, but he only has 736 yards and six touchdowns in the second halves of games.
The Jaguars currently have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, and Lawrence has the fifth-best odds to win MVP. That might be underselling them, and him. The Jaguars may just be the best team, with the best quarterback, in the NFL right now.