The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars meet Sunday at Wembley Stadium with records that suggest a mismatch: Houston is 1-4, while Jacksonville is 4-1. But the numbers beneath those records leave room for a considerably less predictable afternoon in London.
Jacksonville enters as a 2.5-point favorite after escaping Philadelphia 19-17. Houston finally broke through by beating Tennessee 26-3, then acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. These predictions deliberately push beyond a narrow upset or another respectable quarterback performance. The forecast: Houston produces its most complete game of the season.
CJ Stroud throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns
Jacksonville’s defense allows only 14 points per game, second in the NFL. Predicting four passing touchdowns against that unit is aggressive, but its strength against the run can obscure a vulnerable pass defense.
The Jaguars surrender 277.2 passing yards per game, ranking 30th. Conversely, they allow an NFL-best 63.8 rushing yards per game and just 2.9 yards per carry. Houston therefore has good reason to attack through Stroud rather than repeatedly challenge Jacksonville’s strongest area.
Stroud has already thrown for 1,402 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions through five games. Against Tennessee, he completed 26 of 34 attempts for 261 yards, including an impressive eight completions on 11 pressured throws for 115 yards.
The prediction requires Houston to convert passing volume into touchdowns, something it has not consistently accomplished. Harrison’s arrival creates another possible weapon, although his debut and workload remain uncertain. This call rests primarily on Stroud’s existing production and Jacksonville’s passing-yardage vulnerability, not an assumption that the newcomer immediately dominates.
Will Anderson Jr. records four sacks as Houston forces three turnovers
Anderson delivered three of Houston’s four sacks against Tennessee, providing the foundation for an even bigger prediction against Jacksonville. Four sacks by one player would be a spectacular follow-up, not merely continued improvement.
The Texans limited the Titans to 187 total yards and three points after DeMeco Ryans reclaimed defensive play-calling duties. Tennessee’s struggling offense makes that result an imperfect measuring stick, but Houston still ranks ninth in yards allowed per play.
Jacksonville presents a tougher opponent, yet Sunday exposed pressure points. Trevor Lawrence threw an interception and lost a fumble against Philadelphia despite producing 331 passing yards and two touchdowns. Houston must turn disruptive plays into possession changes, rather than simply allowing Jacksonville to reset after sacks.
The Jaguars’ penalty problems could help create those opportunities. They have committed at least 13 penalties and accumulated more than 100 penalty yards in consecutive games. Backward movement makes passing situations more predictable, giving Anderson additional chances to attack.
The bold call is four Anderson sacks and three Houston takeaways: pressure converts Jacksonville’s mistakes into decisive field-position advantages.
Article Continues BelowThe Texans win by at least 17 points
Jacksonville’s winning record and scoring defense make a comfortable Houston victory the biggest leap here. The Jaguars have allowed only 70 points across five games, while the Texans entered last Sunday without a win.
Nevertheless, a blowout becomes plausible if the first two predictions connect. Houston’s passing offense attacks Jacksonville’s statistical weakness, while turnovers supply short fields and prevent Lawrence from answering every score.
Jacksonville also needed a 53-yard kickoff return and Cam Little’s 57-yard field goal to escape Philadelphia. That extraordinary finish demonstrated resilience, but it should not conceal how close the Jaguars came to losing.
Stroud’s four touchdown passes power the offense, and defensive disruption keeps the Jaguars from turning their rushing balance into sustained control. London delivers a division-changing upset, not another last-second escape.