UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan continues with Rodrigo Sezinando against Theodor Berggren in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 123 odds series for our Sezinando-Berggren prediction and pick.
Rodrigo Sezinando (9-2) returns after Daniil Donchenko stopped him in the first round of their Ultimate Fighter finale in September 2025. Before that official defeat, he defeated Jonathan Ramsay by first-round TKO and won two exhibition bouts on television, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Theodor Berggren.
Theodor Berggren (8-4) suffered a second-round stoppage against Daniil Donchenko during his June UFC debut. Before entering the promotion, the Swedish finisher defeated Abdulatip Samedov by third-round TKO in February, demonstrating persistence and finishing ability against dangerous regional opposition as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rodrigo Sezinando.
UFC Vegas 123 odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 123 Odds: Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren
Rodrigo Sezinando: -180
Theodor Berggren: +150
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Rodrigo Sezinando Will Win
Rodrigo Sezinando can win by making Berggren defend a layered attack instead of accepting a straightforward exchange of powerful combinations. He should use compact boxing to draw the taller fighter forward before changing levels or connecting a clinch along the fence.
Sezinando's Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and professional submission victories provide a credible alternative if the striking exchanges become too dangerous. That flexibility matters against Berggren, whose finishing threat makes a prolonged willingness to exchange at the end of punches unnecessarily risky.
The favorite should target the body while moving his head off center, forcing Berggren to protect more than one level. Those defensive reactions can create the moment to close distance safely rather than shooting underneath a fully prepared counter combination.
Once grounded, Sezinando needs to establish control before advancing, because reckless submission attempts could return the fight to volatile striking exchanges. A patient progression through half guard would allow him to land short strikes while searching for an exposed back or neck.
His strongest performance combines defensive responsibility with purposeful pressure, making Berggren solve transitions rather than freely setting his preferred striking rhythm. Expect Sezinando's grappling to supply the decisive opening, with a submission possible once the underdog begins scrambling to recover position.
Why Theodor Berggren Will Win
Theodor Berggren can win by making Sezinando cross a dangerous stretch of punching range before the Brazilian establishes his grappling. A firm jab and straight right should be central weapons, particularly when Sezinando approaches upright or begins reaching for contact.
Berggren's height and reach advantages provide useful tools for scoring first, although positioning determines whether those measurements become meaningful advantages. He must avoid surrendering the fence, where Sezinando can turn open-space striking exchanges into body locks and repeated attempts to ground him.
The underdog should attack in compact bursts rather than extending combinations until his stance becomes too narrow to defend wrestling. Finishing each exchange with an angle would preserve his striking options while forcing Sezinando to restart the process of closing distance.
Article Continues BelowSezinando's stoppage loss to Daniil Donchenko illustrates the danger of remaining available when an opponent begins landing clean follow-up strikes. Berggren should pursue those moments intelligently, keeping his hips protected rather than charging into a desperate takedown or an unexpected clinch.
His winning scenario involves establishing range early, discouraging entries through damage, and forcing Sezinando into increasingly obvious attempts to change phases. Expect a knockout opportunity if the Brazilian struggles to negotiate the jab and repeatedly enters behind an exposed defensive posture.
Final Sezinando-Berggren Prediction & Pick
Rodrigo Sezinando receives a cautious selection because his grappling gives him a useful alternative when the striking exchanges become too dangerous to sustain for long. Berggren's range can absolutely create problems, but the Brazilian does not need to win a kickboxing match if he connects a takedown and establishes position.
Sezinando should approach behind compact combinations, attack the body, and close distance when Berggren becomes committed to answering rather than shooting without a prepared entry. Once grounded, the priority should be securing the hips and limiting movement, allowing Berggren's attempts to stand to create opportunities for back control and a choke.
Both fighters have enough finishing ability to make this a volatile contest, so the moneyline should not be mistaken for a comfortable or low-risk selection. The prediction is Sezinando by first-round submission, with his ability to create a decisive transition narrowly outweighing Berggren's more obvious opportunities to land damaging punches at distance.
Final Rodrigo Sezinando-Theodor Berggren Prediction & Pick: Rodrigo Sezinando (-180), UNDER 1.5 rounds (+114).