UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan features a five-round lightweight main event between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. Check out our UFC Vegas 123 odds series for our Moicano-Nolan prediction and pick.
Renato Moicano (21-7-1) rebounded from his unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush by submitting Chris Duncan in the second round. The Brazilian veteran restored momentum after consecutive defeats against Dariush and Islam Makhachev, showcasing his dangerous back control as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tom Nolan.
Tom Nolan (11-1) extended his winning streak to five with a unanimous decision over Fares Ziam in June, following his first-round submission of Charlie Campbell. Those victories demonstrated improved composure and versatility after his promotional debut against Nikolas Motta, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Renato Moicano.
UFC Vegas 123 odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 123 Odds: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
Renato Moicano: -120
Tom Nolan: +100
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Renato Moicano Will Win
Renato Moicano's clearest route to victory is forcing Tom Nolan into prolonged grappling exchanges rather than trading at kicking range. His ability to advance position, trap an opponent's hips, and attack the back gives this matchup a straightforward tactical foundation.
Nolan's height can create problems at distance, but those long limbs also give Moicano opportunities to connect his wrestling entries. The Brazilian should target the fence, where successive takedown attempts can gradually replace explosive scrambles with exhausting battles for position.
Moicano's submission victory over Chris Duncan offers recent evidence that his finishing instincts remain dangerous when he establishes advantageous positions. Against Nolan, maintaining chest pressure and controlling wrists should matter more than immediately chasing a choke before securing the position.
On the feet, Moicano can use his jab and low kicks to interrupt Nolan's rhythm without accepting unnecessarily extended exchanges. Making Nolan reset repeatedly should create opportunities to change levels underneath longer combinations and begin building his preferred grappling sequences.
The five-round format gives Moicano additional time to turn isolated takedowns into cumulative fatigue, although surviving Nolan's early offense remains essential. Expect his strongest performance to feature measured pressure, patient positional advancement, and a submission once Nolan starts exposing his back.
Why Tom Nolan Will Win
Tom Nolan can win this matchup by making Moicano repeatedly cross open space while defending straight punches and attacks downstairs. His southpaw stance provides opportunities to establish the rear hand, particularly when Moicano advances upright behind predictable single jab entries.
Nolan should resist turning every successful combination into an extended exchange, because unnecessary pocket time invites Moicano's counterwrestling and clinches. Landing two clean shots before exiting laterally would allow him to score consistently while preserving the distance his game requires.
His recent victories over Charlie Campbell and Fares Ziam demonstrate that his development involves more than simply relying on physical attributes. That broader confidence should help him remain composed when Moicano changes phases instead of treating every grappling exchange as an emergency.
Article Continues BelowDefensively, the priority is denying connected wrestling attempts rather than assuming one successful sprawl permanently ends the Brazilian's offensive sequence. Nolan needs immediate underhooks, disciplined fence awareness, and controlled standups that avoid presenting his neck during otherwise promising escape attempts.
If he consistently returns the fight to striking range, his body work could make Moicano's subsequent takedown attempts increasingly laborious. Expect Nolan's winning scenario to involve patient damage accumulation, increasingly readable wrestling entries, and a stoppage as the veteran slows.
Final Moicano-Nolan Prediction & Pick
Renato Moicano gets the narrow selection because his most dangerous weapon directly targets the phase Nolan must successfully avoid throughout this demanding five-round main event. Nolan can absolutely win the striking exchanges, but sustained defensive perfection becomes harder when every clinch threatens another prolonged sequence against the fence or underneath.
Moicano should avoid chasing his taller opponent around the perimeter and instead pressure behind short combinations that make Nolan stop, plant, and defend wrestling entries. Once grounded, Nolan's immediate escape choices become critical, because hurried turns and exposed hands can allow Moicano to progress toward his preferred back control positions.
This is not a comfortable favorite selection, especially given Nolan's momentum and the possibility that he hurts Moicano before the grappling becomes a decisive factor. Still, the Brazilian's clearest winning mechanism appears more repeatable, and the prediction is a third-round submission after enough defensive exchanges begin compromising Nolan's composure underneath.
Final Renato Moicano-Tom Nolan Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (-120), OVER 1.5 rounds (-210).