The San Diego Padres fell 3-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their National League Division Series on Saturday night at American Family Field, with Ty France's ninth-inning fly ball becoming the game's most controversial moment. However, the available data suggest San Diego may not have been deprived of a home run.

With one out and a runner on first, France faced Brewers closer Trevor Megill with Milwaukee leading 3-2. France hit a 105.3 mph fly ball with a 49-degree launch angle that struck a roof cable at American Family Field. The ball then came back toward the field, where Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio caught it near the left-field warning track.

The umpires determined that the ball struck the roof over fair territory. A challenge from Padres manager Craig Stammen was unsuccessful, so the catch stood as an out. American Family Field's ground rules state that a batted ball hitting the roof, a roof truss or a roof cable over fair territory remains in play. If a fielder catches it, the batter is out and runners advance at their own risk. A ball hitting the roof over foul territory is instead ruled a dead ball.

The numbers make the idea that France was guaranteed a two-run homer far less certain. After striking the roof, the ball traveled 325 feet, and Statcast estimated that it would have been a home run in only one MLB stadium: Daikin Park in Houston. No ball in the Statcast era that had an exit velocity of 105 mph and a launch angle of 49 degrees has ever been a home run, Timothy Burke posted on Bluesky. Batted balls with those characteristics have produced a .037 batting average and zero home runs.

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Although that does not prove France's ball would not have cleared the fence, it indicates that a home run was far from certain. Milwaukee catcher William Contreras believed it would have left the park, while Brewers manager Pat Murphy said he thought the ball was headed foul.

San Diego ultimately could not overcome the ruling. The Padres left 12 runners on base and went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Jackson Merrill's well-hit line drive to right field was caught by Luis Lara for the final out, giving the Milwaukee win.

San Diego will attempt to even the series Sunday when Michael King starts Game 2 on Sunday versus the Brewers.