NFL survivor picks, strategy: Week 4 safe, value, and trap options

October is upon us! The NFL heads into Week 4 and with the fall weather, football really and truly is in the air!

Last week opened with the Falcons thumping the Packers in Green Bay, which tells us plenty about how bad the Packers are right now. The most notable upset has to be the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders beating the previously unbeaten Seahawks, but the Jaguars crushing the Patriots was also a bit of a surprise.

I’m back with my week 4 Survivor picks ahead of Steelers-Browns on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. One of my entries was out in two weeks thanks to the Chargers and Bucs losing the first two weeks of the season. Another entry was Steelers in Week 1 and then Bucs in Week 2, so I was down to one strike there. I made three picks last week, with two 49ers and one Chiefs pick moving me on for another week.

Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend.

I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.

Vikings (-10.5) over Dolphins
Ravens (-11.5) over Titans

We have two double digit favorites this week and both are the safe plays. The Vikings are the better play this weekend because there are not many options left to use them. They’re projected favorites at home against the Falcons and Panthers in Week 12 and Week 13, but if you haven’t used them yet, the Jaguars at home against the Titans and the Broncos at home against the Dolphins will be better values.

Vikings (-10.5) over Dolphins

Minnesota really is the value play this week. A lot of folks will use the Ravens, but the Vikings are the one that make the most sense across the board.

Seahawks (-7) over Chargers
Bills (-6.5) over Patriots

Seattle should be able to bounce back after their struggles in Washington, while LA has been a disaster. I’m not ready to give up on the Chargers, and this is a dangerous game for the Seahawks.

I think the Bills probably roll the Patriots, but there’s no reason to make a divisional pick at this stage of your contests.

I don’t like putting all my eggs in one basket, but the Vikings are a tempting basket. I’ll probably use the Ravens for one pick and the Vikings for two, but I’m going to sleep on it the next few days.