NBA MVP Prediction Markets: Who Can Actually Win It In 2026-27?

The most coveted individual award in the NBA is the Most Valuable Player. Who will be the best player in the league this regular season? There are always a lot of great candidates every year.

Here are the six favorites to win MVP in 2027 according to Kalshi, a popular prediction market platform that allows users to trade contracts of real-world events, including the NBA.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (34% Chance, 34¢ Yes)

The 2026-27 MVP seems to be Victor Wembanyama’s for the taking. San Antonio will fight for one of the top records in the Western Conference and the entire NBA. Wembanyama, still 22 years old, is only going to get better after his first taste of playoff basketball last season. There may be voter fatigue for some players lower on this list.

If Wembanyama can stay healthy and meet the NBA’s 65-game requirement this year, I see no reason why he is not the first player since Giannis Antetokounmpo (2020) to win both the Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year awards.

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (15% Chance, 15¢ Yes)

The 31-year-old Serbian continues to just amaze as the years go by. Jokic averaged a triple double for the second straight season in 2026, while leading the NBA in rebounds and assists per game. He has finished in the top two of MVP voting in each of the last six seasons.

You already know what you are going to get from Jokic. But what may stop him from taking home a historic fourth trophy is how well his team plays. As Denver continues to decline, so will Nikola Jokic’s MVP chances. Unless Jokic can somehow bring the Nuggets to one of the top two seeds in the West, it will be difficult for voters to look past Denver’s record.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (15% Chance, 15¢ Yes)

The two-time reigning MVP will have a fantastic shot of winning another. If Gilgeous-Alexander won a third straight MVP, he would join the likes of Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell in that category.

SGA has become one of the most consistent scorers of this era. Last year, he averaged at least 30 points per game on over 50 percent shooting for the fourth consecutive season. The Thunder will be in the mix to be a top seed yet again, so I think the only two things stopping Gilgeous-Alexander from a third straight MVP are Victor Wembanyama and voter fatigue.

Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (14% Chance, 15¢ Yes)

The NBA’s reigning scoring champion now has full reign of the Lakers now that LeBron James left for Philadelphia. If Los Angeles can finish top three in the West with Doncic averaging close to a 33 point triple double, he will most definitely be in the mix to win his first Most Valuable Player award.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (7% Chance, 7¢ Yes)

Minnesota is very confident heading into this season with their new addition of LaMelo Ball. Everything for the Timberwolves will start with how Anthony Edwards sets the tone on both sides of the floor.

Similar to Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards’ MVP chances will depend on how he is able to lead his team in a deep Western Conference.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat (7% Chance, 7¢ Yes)

The best player traded in the 2026 offseason was the Greek Freak heading to South Beach. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat are coming into this year with lots to prove. Antetokounmpo is still just as good as ever, if not better than his previous two MVP campaigns in 2019 and 2020.

If he can get the Heat to finish near the top of the loaded Eastern Conference, expect Giannis to be in many MVP conversations.