UFC Vegas 124: Cortes -Acosta vs. Walker continues on the prelims with an all-Brazilian women's flyweight fight between Karine Silva and Gabriella Fernandes. Check out our UFC Vegas 124 odds series for our Silva-Fernandes prediction and pick.
Karine Silva (19-7) steps into the Octagon after decision losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Maycee Barber. Her last win was a decision over Dione Barbosa as she comes into her fight this weekend against Gabriella Fernandes.
Gabriella Fernandes (11-4) is coming off a TKO loss to Casey O'Neill in March after earlier wins over Julija Stoliarenko and Wang Cong. That upset submission of Wang remains the headline result as she comes into her fight this weekend against Karine Silva.
UFC Vegas 124 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 124 Odds: Karine Silva-Gabriella Fernandes Odds
Karine Silva: -225
Gabriella Fernandes: +185
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Karine Silva Will Win
Karine Silva has the better grappling pedigree and a style built around takedowns and control. If the fight reaches the mat, she should be able to dominate the position.
Silva has endured a rough run recently, but her losses came against strong competition. She still holds the edge in overall UFC experience.
Gabriella Fernandes is dangerous in spots, but she has been finished by O'Neill and can be forced into a defensive fight. Silva can exploit that by pressuring early.
The Brazilian can also keep the pace manageable and avoid exchanges where Fernandes can land cleanly. That discipline would help her win rounds.
Silva's best path is to mix leg kicks with takedown threats. Expect her to wear Fernandes down and take a clear decision.
Why Gabriella Fernandes Will Win
Gabriella Fernandes has the length and poise to give Karine Silva problems. Her takedown defense has been solid enough to keep fights standing.
She also has the confidence of beating Wang Cong with a submission as a major underdog. That experience shows she can capitalize on mistakes.
Silva has dropped three of her last four, so her momentum is questionable. Fernandes can exploit that hesitation by taking the center.
Leg kicks and straight punches could frustrate Silva, who often needs to close distance. If Fernandes keeps the fight upright, she can build a small but meaningful edge.
Article Continues BelowThe underdog should stay disciplined and avoid long clinches. Expect Fernandes to win a tight split decision with cleaner striking.
Final Silva-Fernandes Prediction & Pick
Karine Silva should win because her grappling gives her a more dependable route to victory. Even in a skid, she remains one of the better ground fighters in the flyweight division.
Fernandes can make the fight uncomfortable if she keeps her distance and lands low kicks. Still, Silva has the more compelling plan if she changes levels at the right moment.
This fight likely features slow stretches and careful exchanges rather than sustained violence. Both women are cautious and neither has been the most explosive finisher recently.
Expect Silva to establish enough takedowns and control to take two rounds. The fight should reach the scorecards, and Silva should earn a close but clear decision.
Final Karine Silva-Gabriella Fernandes Prediction & Pick: Karine Silva (-225), OVER 2.5 rounds (-175)