UFC Vegas 124: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker continues on the main card with a potential strawweight title eliminator in the co-main event between Tatiana Suarez and Virna Jandiroba. Check out our UFC Vegas 124 odds series for our Suarez-Jandiroba prediction and pick.
Tatiana Suarez (13-1) steps into the Octagon riding a two-fight winning streak after a second-round rear-naked choke of Loopy Godinez at UFC 327. That win followed her solid decision over Amanda Lemos as she comes into her fight this weekend against Virna Jandiroba.
Virna Jandiroba (23-4) bounced back with a unanimous decision over Tabatha Ricci after falling short against Mackenzie Dern in the vacant strawweight title fight. The veteran Brazilian remains near the top of the division as she comes into her fight this weekend against Tatiana Suarez.
UFC Vegas 124 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 124 Odds: Tatiana Suarez-Virna Jandiroba Odds
Tatiana Suarez: -205
Virna Jandiroba: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: -375
Under 2.5 rounds: +270
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Tatiana Suarez Will Win
Tatiana Suarez is the stronger and more physical wrestler in this strawweight title eliminator. Her chain wrestling should force Virna Jandiroba to defend takedowns before she can set up submissions.
Jandiroba is most dangerous from her back, so Suarez must avoid giving her easy guard time. Suarez's top pressure and heavy hips make that task realistic.
Suarez has also shown improved composure in recent victories over Amanda Lemos and Loopy Godinez. Her entries are sharper, and her cardio allows her to keep shooting through three or five rounds.
On the feet, Suarez can use enough boxing to draw Jandiroba's attention upward. Once the Brazilian respects the strikes, Suarez can change levels and drag the fight into her territory.
The favorite's task is to stay patient and avoid reckless scrambles. Expect Suarez to win with relentless wrestling, positional control, and a dominant decision.
Why Virna Jandiroba Will Win
Virna Jandiroba brings the veteran grappling craft to turn a Suarez takedown into a submission threat. Her guard is elite, and her sweeps can erase top control quickly.
She also knows how to survive on the mat when a wrestler tries to smother her. That discipline is why few strawweights have been able to finish her.
Jandiroba's striking is not flashy, but she can swing and keep Suarez honest. If she lands counters while Suarez enters, the favorite may hesitate on her shots.
Her recent decision over Tabatha Ricci showed she can win rounds through volume and control. She also has deep experience with title-level pressure after facing Dern.
Article Continues BelowThe key is forcing scrambles instead of letting Suarez settle into pure top pressure. Expect Jandiroba to threaten submissions off her back and grind out a close decision.
Final Suarez-Jandiroba Prediction & Pick
Tatiana Suarez holds the more consistent route to victory because her wrestling can dictate where the fight happens. Jandiroba is dangerous from the bottom, but Suarez has the strength to keep her pinned and limited.
The biggest risk for Suarez is wasting energy in scrambles that give Jandiroba sweeping chances. She should chain takedowns carefully and keep her hips heavy.
On the feet, both women are cautious enough that the fight should become a clinch and grappling contest. Suarez's cleaner entries and higher output should win the scorecards.
A finish is possible if Suarez takes Jandiroba's back, but the Brazilian's defensive experience makes a full distance fight more likely. Expect Suarez to score takedowns and control time over five rounds.
Final Tatiana Suarez-Virna Jandiroba Prediction & Pick: Tatiana Suarez (-205), OVER 2.5 rounds (-375)