UFC Vegas 124: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker continues on the main card with a light heavyweight fight between Billy Elekana and Lucas Fernando. Check out our UFC Vegas 124 odds series for our Elekana-Fernando prediction and pick.
Billy Elekana (10-2) steps into the Octagon riding a three-fight winning streak after submitting Junior Tafa in the second round in February. The Las Vegas resident also choked out Kevin Christian following a short-notice debut loss to Bogdan Guskov as he comes into his fight this weekend against Lucas Fernando.
Lucas Fernando (14-3) made an impressive UFC debut at UFC 330, stopping Rafael Tobias with a third-round TKO. That victory extended his winning streak to five and gave him three consecutive stoppages as he comes into his fight this weekend against Billy Elekana.
UFC Vegas 124 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 124 Odds: Billy Elekana-Lucas Fernando Odds
Billy Elekana: +260
Lucas Fernando: -325
Over 1.5 rounds: -215
Under 1.5 rounds: +165
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Billy Elekana Will Win
Billy Elekana has the grappling tools to turn this into an uncomfortable fight for Lucas Fernando. His rear-naked choke wins show he can find the back quickly.
Fernando is a creative striker, but creativity can leave openings. If Elekana closes distance and gets hold of the hips, the favorite's best weapons become less effective.
Elekana is also durable and crafty, with enough UFC experience to stay calm under pressure. He survived a difficult debut and has improved steadily since.
The underdog can use feints and level changes to make Fernando hesitate. Even one takedown could shift the momentum.
His best path is to absorb the early flurry, grab the clinch, and drag the fight to the mat. Expect Elekana to land an upset by taking Fernando's back and sinking another choke.
Why Lucas Fernando Will Win
Lucas Fernando has the more explosive and varied striking attack. His kicks, knees, and punches create several threats in every exchange.
His debut against Rafael Tobias showed how he can batter an opponent before finishing. He is confident, relaxed, and willing to throw a wide arsenal.
Elekana's grappling is dangerous, but Fernando can use footwork and distance to avoid clinches. If the Brazilian keeps the fight at range, his kicks can cause real damage.
Fernando also carries power into the late rounds, as shown by his third-round finish. That makes every exchange risky for a durable opponent.
Article Continues BelowThe favorite should stay composed and not chase a finish too early. Expect Fernando to chop the body and legs, then close with a TKO.
Final Elekana-Fernando Prediction & Pick
Lucas Fernando deserves the pick because his striking is more versatile and his recent form is excellent. Elekana has real submission skill, but he must close the distance against a creative kicker.
Fernando's debut showed polish, power, and composure over ten minutes before the finish. That is a good sign for someone moving into a competitive light heavyweight division.
Elekana's best route is a clinch or takedown that forces Fernando to scramble. If Fernando keeps his hips back and circles away, those chances should be limited.
The most likely outcome is Fernando landing kicks, body shots, and counters until Elekana slows. Expect a finish in the second or third round as the damage accumulates.
Final Billy Elekana-Lucas Fernando Prediction & Pick: Lucas Fernando (-325), OVER 1.5 rounds (-215)