Paul Skenes entered the 2026 MLB season as one of the fastest rising stars in the sport. He was fresh off a strong World Baseball Classic performance despite the fact that Team USA fell short of winning the championship. Nevertheless, he appeared poised to have one of his biggest seasons yet, as he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2025. However, the 2026 campaign did not go according to plan for Skenes in a surprising turn of events.
In all reality, Skenes has still had a season that many other hurlers can only dream of. He's made 31 starts and holds a 3.91 ERA to go along with 192 strikeouts. Skenes is scheduled to make one more start, so he may end up with 200 strikeouts.
So, what else went wrong aside from the obvious velocity drop? If you've followed Skenes and/or the Pirates at all this season, you've undoubtedly heard plenty about Skenes' average fastball velocity dropping from over 98 MPH to under 97 MPH this year. Skenes recently acknowledged that the World Baseball Classic may have played a role in his velocity concerns, as he's still made over 30 starts and has not dealt with consistent injury problems.
Here's everything else that went wrong for Paul Skenes this season aside from the velocity drop.
Other problems for Paul Skenes
What made Skenes such an intriguing young pitcher in recent years was his ability to light up the radar gun while also limiting walks. There are no shortage of flame-throwers around the sport, but few can control the baseball at a high level.
Skenes' walk percentage hovered right around the 6.0 percent mark in 2024 and 2025. His 5.7 percent walk rate was especially impressive last year, as that ranked in the 87th percentile in the league, per Baseball Savant.
In 2026, Skenes has seen his walk rate increase to 6.8 percent, which places him in the 76th percentile. Command hasn't been a massive problem for him, but he is walking far more hitters this season than he has in previous years.
Surprisingly, Skenes' strikeout rate hasn't declined as much as you may imagine despite walking more hitters and not throwing as hard. He struck out 29.5 percent of the hitters he faced a season ago, and he's still recording K's 27.9 percent of the time this year. One of the primary differences this season compared to Skenes' other big league seasons stems from what happens when hitters do make contact.
Article Continues BelowWhile batters aren't necessarily hitting the ball harder on average against Skenes, they are finding ways to record more line drives. His 25.6 percent line drive rate is the worst mark of his career, as he turned in marks of 20.3 percent and 22.8 percent in 2024 and 2025. Perhaps what is more concerning is Skenes' ground ball rate, which has dropped all the way to 40.2 percent after being at 51.6 percent in 2024 and 44.3 percent a season ago.
If you know anything about baseball it doesn't take a sports journalist to tell you this, but I'll say it anyway: Ground balls are better for pitchers than line drives.
Finally, there is the home run issue. Skenes allowed a total of 21 long balls combined in 55 starts between the 2024 and 2025 seasons. In 2026, that mark is at 19 in 31 outings. His rate for home runs allowed was under 2.0 percent in both of his first two seasons, but he currently holds a 2.8 percent home run allowed rate.
Why there's hope for Skenes
Skenes could be correct in his assessment about the WBC impacting his velocity and performance. He fortunately has been able to avoid injury trouble, so a full and normal offseason may be what leads to Paul Skenes becoming, well, Paul Skenes once again.
His breaking stuff has still been quite impressive. In fact, his breaking run value ranks in the 92nd percentile. If you combine that with the fact that he's still striking hitters out at a respectable rate, it becomes clear that he's still a good pitcher.
If he can limit the long balls and walks while inducing more grounders, Skenes could realistically find success even if the high velocity doesn't return. And if the velocity does get back to where it was in recent years, Skenes may end up earning his second Cy Young award in 2027.