Bengals vs. Steelers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Fresh off a convincing win in Houston over the Texans, Joe Burrow and the Bengals (2-0) travel to Pittsburgh Sunday to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers (1-1) in a matchup of AFC North rivals.

The Bengals put together a complete performance last Sunday against the Texans, winning 20-6. After a quiet Week 1 that saw him targeted just four times and catch just two passes, Ja’Marr Chase was the focal point last week, catching 7 passes on nine targets for 75 yards including two touchdowns. Cincinnati’s defense, anchored by Dexter Lawrence II, suffocated C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense, keeping them out of the endzone and allowing a paltry 60 yards on the ground.

It was a miserable afternoon for the Steelers last Sunday in Foxborough as the Patriots dominated on both sides of the ball and defeated Pittsburgh, 20-3. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense struggled to find any rhythm against a dominant Patriots’ defense, managing only 235 total yards and more importantly a total of three lonely points. The breaking point came when Rodgers was strip-sacked and fumbled, resulting in a touchdown from Elijah Ponder that pushed the score to 20-3 early in the fourth quarter.

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Keep in mind: Burrow and the Bengals won this past Sunday despite the Texans sacking the veteran quarterback five times. T.J. Watt and co. will need to apply at least that much pressure all afternoon for the Steelers to prevail in front of their home crowd.

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Bottom-line: It is only Week 3, but certain trends are developing. The Bengals’ defense is much-improved over last season’s crew. In Week 1 they turned over the Bucs four times and this past weekend they kept Houston out of the endzone. Meanwhile, the Steelers managed just three points last week and their leader, Aaron Rodgers, tossed his coach under the bus in his postgame presser. A new coaching staff has minimal time to grab the attention and respect of the team. That gets no easier when a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback and locker room leader deflects blame and criticism and throws his coaches under the bus. Is that locker room already in trouble? It is only Week 3, but...

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Last season, these teams split their two meetings with Cincinnati winning at home, 33-31, in October, and the Steelers answering at Acrisure Stadium with a 34-12 win in November. Pittsburgh leads the all-time series, 72-41-0.

Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game details and how to watch Bengals vs. Steelers

  • Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
  • Time: 1:00PM ET
  • Site: Acrisure Stadium
  • City: Pittsburgh, PA
  • TV/Streaming: CBS

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Latest Game Odds for Bengals vs. Steelers

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals (-185), Pittsburgh Steelers (+154)
  • Spread: Bengals -3.5
  • Total: 42.5

Sharp money has moved this line from Cincy -1.5, and the Total has plummeted from its opening number of 47.5.

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Expert picks & predictions for Bengals vs. Steelers

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Bengals and the Steelers:

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Bengals -3.5
  • Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Total UNDER 42.5.

The Total has dropped substantially but the UNDER may still be in play. With Joey Porter Jr. out and the Steelers’ secondary already ranked 31st in passing yards allowed, the Bengals should be able to score, but can Pittsburgh? And it’s a divisional game which often means a little more of an attempt at ball control which translates into fewer possessions.

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Bengals vs. Steelers: Betting Trends and Stats

  • The Bengals are 2-0 against the spread this season
  • The Steelers are 1-1 against the spread this season
  • Cincinnati is 1-1 to the OVER this season
  • Pittsburgh is 0-2 to the OVER this season

Quarterback matchup: Bengals vs. Steelers

  • Cincinnati: Joe Burrow
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 461 Passing Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 96.8 RTG
  • Pittsburgh: Aaron Rodgers
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 408 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 72.1 RTG

Bengals vs. Steelers: Top Playmakers

Bengals

  • RB Chase Brown
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 36 carries for 136 Yds, 1 TD / 8 receptions on 11 targets for 24 Yds, 0 TDs
  • WR Tee Higgins
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 8 receptions on 16 targets for 154 Yds, 0 TDs
  • WR Ja’Marr Chase
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 9 receptions on 13 targets for 87 Yds, 2 TDs

Steelers

  • RB Jaylen Warren
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 21 carries for 89 Yds, 0 TDs
  • WR DK Metcalf
    2026 Statistics: 2GP, 8 receptions on 19 targets for 67 Yds, 0 TDs
  • TE Pat Freiermuth
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 9 receptions on 10 targets for 78 Yds, 1 TD

Bengals vs. Steelers: Injury Update

Bengals

  • DT B.J. Hill (undisclosed) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game

Steelers

  • WR Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB Rico Dowdle (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • CB Joey Porter Jr. (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game

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