The Houston Astros have not had a very impressive year. The Astros may have been a playoff team in 8 of the last 9 seasons, but the 2026 season has seen them struggle to keep their heads above water as they play their final 8 games of the regular season.
The team has benefitted greatly from what has been considered to be a down year for the American League in general and the AL West specifically. As they prepare to conclude their home schedule by finishing off a 3-game series with games against the Atlanta Braves Saturday and Sunday, they are tied for first place in the division with the Texas Rangers. Both teams have 77-77 records, and the winner will serve as the No. 3 seed in the AL playoff structure.
If the two teams finish tied in the standings, the Astros have the advantage and the tiebreaker. They were a dominant 9-4 in the season series between the two Lone Star rivals.
The loser is not out of contention. The Chicago White Sox (78-76) have fallen out of the AL Central lead by 1 game to the Cleveland Guardians, but they currently are in the 6th and final playoff spot as the No. 3 Wild Card team. That position is tenuous, as the Rangers and Astros are just one game behind.
The Astros have a strong postseason legacy since moving to the American League in 2013, having been a playoff team 9 times since then and winning two World Series titles. However, if they make the playoffs this year as division champions or as a Wild Card team, any of the matchups they face could be challenging despite the presence of Most Valuable Player and Triple Crown candidate Yordan Alvarez.
Winning the division is no guarantee to surviving and advancing
The Astros go on the road for the final two series of the regular season against the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics. The final home games against the Braves could be problematic as they still have an outside chance of finishing as the No. 2 seed in the National League if they can make up the 4.0-game deficit that they have with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is something that would clearly be beneficial for the Braves because it would give them a first-round bye, but catching and passing the sport's best team â until proven otherwise â is unlikely.
The Astros are dependent on the slugging of Alvarez, who is slashing .312/.431/.600 with 40 home runs and 99 runs batted in. He has the ability to break up any close game with his power and clutch hitting. While Astros manager Joe Espada clearly depends on Alvarez for his ability to intimidate opposing pitchers, he also knows that his team has several other power sources.
First baseman Christian Walker is second on the team with 25 home runs, while third baseman Isaac Paredes has 21 long balls. Shortstop Jeremy Pena and right fielder Cam Smith both have 20 home runs.
Blue Jays could present biggest problem if they make playoffs
If they survive their final game, they could play the White Sox (78-76), Guardians (79-75), Toronto Blue Jays (76-78) or the Rangers in the playoffs. The Baltimore Orioles (75-79) also have an outside chance, although they were hurt badly by their 6-5 loss Friday to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Article Continues BelowThe White Sox are faltering down the stretch, having lost 7 of their last 10 games and they may not be able to catch the Guardians. The Astros success against the Rangers would probably serve as an advantage in a matchup.
The Blue Jays were the American League champions a year ago and were two outs from winning the World Series. While they have been inconsistent this season, getting another opportunity to play in the postseason could result in a renewed effort and supreme focus in the postseason.
If the Astros win the division, facing the Blue Jays or the experienced Guardians could be nightmarish matchups in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Finishing as last Wild Card team could work out
The Astros are largely dependent on their power hitting as well as closer Josh Hader's ability to finish off opponents. Hader is having a sensational season with 26 saves, a 4-1 record and a sensational 0.83 earned run average. He has 55 strikeouts in 43.1 innings and he has given up just 4 earned runs all season and only 1 home run. If the Astros can take any kind of lead into the final inning, Hader will get the job done.
The best scenario for the Astros may be finishing as the No. 3 Wild Card team, which would make them the No. 6 seed in the American League playoffs. They would have to play all of their Wild Card games on the road, but that would not be a problem against the Rangers. In addition to their overall success in the season series, the Astros were 4-3 in games played at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
The Astros are clearly confident when playing the Rangers and don't mind going on the road. That would certainly be an advantage that most road teams in the Wild Card round don't have.