The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs are running it back in the National League Wild Card Series, but this time the Cubs come to Petco Park.
San Diego earned home-field advantage with a late surge that included wins over the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, while the Cubs arrive with Pete Crow-Armstrong, the likely NL MVP and one of baseball’s most dangerous all-around players.
Chicago won last year’s Wild Card meeting in three tight games. This version could be just as close. The Padres have the pitching to control a short series, but the Cubs have enough offense and defense to make every mistake hurt. Here are four bold predictions, counting down to the player who decides it.
4. Padres starters improve, and the bullpen finishes the job
Michael King is confirmed for Game 1, and he gives San Diego its best chance to dictate the series immediately. After posting a 3.21 ERA across 185 innings, King has earned the right to start the biggest game of the Padres’ season. Nick Pivetta is the leading candidate for Game 2, while Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler could get the ball if the series reaches a third game. The Padres could lean toward giving Ray the ball in Game 2 as well.
The bold call: San Diego gets a strong start in every game it plays. Ray has been uneven since arriving, and Pivetta missed much of the season, so expecting the whole group to deliver is a gamble. But Petco Park gives them a setting in which to attack the zone, keep Chicago from stringing together big innings, and hand the ball over with a lead.
That last part is the Padres’ greatest advantage. Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez can bridge the middle innings, and Mason Miller can make the ninth feel awfully short. Even against an offense featuring Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman, two or three runs might be enough if San Diego’s starters cover the first five or six innings.
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong does everything, even in a Cubs loss
Crow-Armstrong finished the regular season with 45 home runs and 41 stolen bases. He can change a game with one swing, manufacture a run with his legs, or take a hit away in center field. That combination makes him a threat even if the Padres pitch well overall.
Expect him to produce the series’ most memorable defensive play and steal at least a couple of bases. Once he reaches, a single can become a scoring chance almost instantly. San Diego can limit the Cubs as a team without completely containing their best player; Crow-Armstrong only needs a couple of openings to keep Chicago in a game.
His defense could be just as disruptive. In a series where runs may be scarce, a catch in the gap can erase a Padres rally and shift the pressure right back onto their pitchers. My prediction is that Crow-Armstrong looks every bit like an MVP.
Article Continues Below2. Cubs starters struggle if Kevin Gausman cannot go
Chicago’s rotation plans still hinge on Gausman, who has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder, his non-throwing shoulder. The Cubs had not announced their Game 1 starter as of Monday. Matthew Boyd is an option, while Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Shota Imanaga give them choices later in the series. Imanaga threw only one inning in Sunday’s finale, though his availability on short rest still has to be considered.
If Gausman misses the series or cannot pitch effectively, that uncertainty becomes a serious problem against a Padres lineup that has caught fire. Fernando Tatis Jr. rediscovered his power in the second half, Jackson Merrill has been swinging well, and Manny Machado reached 30 home runs. Chicago has capable starters, but asking them to work deep into games at Petco Park against this version of San Diego is another matter.
The prediction is that the Padres push a Cubs starter out before the fifth inning at least once. That would force manager Craig Counsell to cover too many outs with his bullpen and could affect his options the following night. In a best-of-three series, one early exit can shape far more than one game.
1. Ty France becomes San Diego’s Wild Card hero
The Padres signed France to a minor league contract before the season. Now he is their cleanup hitter and, arguably, their team MVP. He finished with a .295 average, an .865 OPS, 21 homers, and 72 RBIs while providing reliable defense at first base. His rise has been one of the best stories on a roster full of bigger names.
That is why France feels like the right player to decide this series. Chicago will have to account for Tatis, Machado, and Merrill, but France has spent the year making pitchers pay for overlooking him. He doesn’t need a three-homer series to be the hero. A timely double with runners aboard, a clean pick on a difficult throw, and/or a hit in a tight game would do it.
My final call: France delivers the decisive hit in a Padres win. Crow-Armstrong makes the series spectacular, and Chicago pushes San Diego to the limit, but the Padres’ pitching and their once-overlooked first baseman send them to the Division Series.